In graphs: how is the US economy really doing under the presidency of Trump?

The US economy is currently experiencing growth, with the gross domestic product expanding at an annualized rate of 2.2%. This growth rate surpasses that of other G7 members during the same period. The economy has also benefited from large investments in artificial intelligence, evidenced by corporate spending on data center construction reaching US$5 billion in August 2026. Inflation is currently at 3.7%, which is below the peak of 9% reached during the Biden administration but above the 3% inherited by Trump. Factors contributing to inflation include the impact of tariffs and disruptions in oil supplies from the Middle East related to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran. Household incomes have increased, with median household income adjusted for inflation reaching US$87,460 in 2025. However, economic adjustments and specific policies resulted in an estimated loss for 20% of middle-income households in 2026. Job creation has averaged 34,000 jobs per month, which is slower than the rate seen during the previous administration, partly due to immigration policies impacting the workforce. Finally, increased government debt and interest rates have risen, with the yield on US 10-year Treasury bonds exceeding 5% and mortgage interest rates increasing significantly.

The narrative presents an economic picture where aggregate growth is strong, yet specific components suggest uneven distribution of benefits and costs. The divergence between headline GDP growth and household financial outcomes suggests a critical gap in the measurement of prosperity. The inflationary pressures are attributed to geopolitical events—specifically the war in the Middle East—and trade policies, which complicate attributing causality solely to domestic policy or external conflict. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that while some segments, specifically higher-income households benefiting from tax cuts, see gains, a significant portion of the middle class faces a net loss, highlighting how macroeconomic shifts interact with fiscal policies and external shocks to create distributional strain. The slowdown in job creation despite growth suggests labor market dynamics are being shaped by structural factors, such as immigration policy, rather than purely cyclical demand. The rising cost of government financing illustrates a tension between short-term stimulus and long-term fiscal sustainability, creating a systemic risk that feeds into household affordability through mortgage costs. The pattern observed is one where macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation) are presented alongside microeconomic data (income loss, borrowing costs), demanding an interrogation of which variables truly dictate the lived experience of the average person versus the official statistics.