Visions of the EU in 2050

The Centre for Economic Policy Research has launched an initiative titled “Europe 2050: Geometries of peace, power, and prosperity” to gather papers on Europe’s future economic, political, environmental, and foreign policy challenges. The initiative, led by figures including Olivier Blanchard and Pascal Lamy, seeks to explore what Europe should aspire to be by 2050, moving beyond short-term crises to assess current policy choices against a strategic vision for the future. The project will generate commissioned policy papers and shorter pieces through an open call.
The text also presents an argument regarding the trajectory of European integration. Hubert Védrine argues that the momentum toward a centralized "United States of Europe" vision has ended, noting a lack of public demonstrations for "more EU." He posits that the most committed pro-European advocates have consistently pushed for supranationality despite popular rejection and external pressures like Brexit. Védrine suggests abandoning concepts like federalism in favor of a framework based on "European Political Confederation," focusing instead on enhanced cooperation, flexibility, and pragmatism driven by future events such as AI, climate change, and geopolitical shifts.

* The initiative is called “Europe 2050: Geometries of peace, power, and prosperity.”
* The goal is to solicit papers on Europe’s future economics, political, environmental, and foreign policy challenges.
* The project involves generating longer commissioned policy papers and shorter pieces through an open call.
* Hubert Védrine argues the momentum toward a centralized “United States of Europe” vision has ended.
* Védrine suggests shifting discourse away from federalism and concepts like "ever closer union."
* Védrine proposes favouring terms such as “European Political Confederation” and enhanced cooperation over seeking a centralized political system for Europe.
* Evolution of the EU is likely to be driven by external events like Russian invasions, economic crises, AI arrival, and migration.

The text presents a tension between established integrationist aspirations and a realistic assessment of contemporary political dynamics, particularly in relation to the concept of a unified European structure. The divergence lies between the historical drive for supranationality, which Védrine characterizes as often becoming "liturgical formulas," and a pragmatic future defined by contingent events rather than centralized design. This reflects a broader pattern where institutional ambition faces populist headwinds and real-world divergences like Brexit. The analysis suggests that focusing on incremental, flexible cooperation—a “variable geometry”—may offer a more resilient path forward than pursuing a monolithic political structure. The challenge for any governing vision is reconciling the desire for unified action with the reality of diverse national interests. This raises questions about whether intellectual commitment to unity must align with popular democratic support or merely pragmatic functionality in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment.
Bridge Questions: If centralized political solutions are unlikely, what specific mechanisms can be designed through flexible cooperation that yield tangible benefits across member states? How can institutional frameworks evolve to accommodate rapid, event-driven responses without sacrificing the principle of shared political agency among member states? What is the threshold for transitioning from aspirational integrationist discourse to pragmatic, operational arrangements in European governance?