Deterrence in a two-peer world requires prudence
Bottom lines up front
- US nuclear strategy must now account for a rapidly expanding Chinese nuclear force alongside a modernizing Russia.
- Whether the current US nuclear force is sufficient depends on unresolved questions about China’s nuclear plans, US objectives, and Russian and Chinese doctrines.
- Arms control should be pursued now rather than...
The strongest version of this narrative highlights a genuine strategic inflection point: the US must adapt to a two-peer nuclear threat environment after decades of relative stability. The analysis credibly frames the dilemma—balancing deterrence against Russia and China without sparking an unsustainable arms race or neglecting conventional defenses. It acknowledges uncertainties, such as China’s endgame for its buildup and the efficacy of arms control, while avoiding hyperbolic fearmongering. T...