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Will Iran Blink on the Strait of Hormuz?

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Will Iran Blink on the Strait of Hormuz? Constricting oil exports cuts both ways. Much of the commentary on the confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz assumes the United States has stumbled into an unprecedented crisis. CNN started the meme, claiming unidentified “sources” leaked a classified briefing saying that what is unfolding is conditioned by confusion and disbelief. The Atlantic followed wit...
The strongest version of this narrative is that Iran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz are a calculated bluff—historically effective at creating fear but incapable of achieving a sustained blockade. The analysis correctly highlights Iran’s economic vulnerabilities and the U.S.’s naval superiority, grounding its claims in historical precedent. However, the framing risks oversimplifying Iran’s strategic calculus. While it’s true Iran has never fully closed the Strait, the article downplays the cum...