The U.S. Air Force is accelerating its timeline for a cheaper, more expendable successor to the MQ-9A Reaper, officials said Sept. 3, after combat losses left the service unwilling to wait out the rest of the drone’s life.
Lt. Gen. Christopher Niemi, the Air Force’s chief modernization officer, told reporters at the Pentagon that a follow-on was already under discussion as the MQ-9 aged out.
“Although we have plenty of MQ-9As today, we are going through them at a rate that is concerning to us,” he said, according to Breaking Defense, which covered the briefing.
Defense Daily reported that Air Force Secretary Troy Meink directed the acceleration, and that the fiscal 2031 target of 20 mission-ready aircraft could be pulled forward by about two years.
In May, Lt. Gen. David Tabor told the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Airland the fleet was down to about 135 aircraft, roughly 54 below the service’s 189-aircraft floor. Niemi did not update the inventory.
Backfilling the fleet is difficult. General Atomics shut down MQ-9A production in 2025, and Tabor said the service was pursuing a short-term buy of existing MQ-9A airframes in fiscal 2026. Niemi said Sept. 3 that budget constraints make buying a large number of upgraded MQ-9B SkyGuardians unrealistic. It is a misconception, he said, that the Air Force could write a check and take delivery of 100 aircraft.
A Congressional Research Service Insight updated May 13 cited an April 9 news report of 24 Reapers lost since military operations against Iran began in February, and said it was unclear whether the Pentagon had given Congress an accounting. The Washington Post reported Aug. 13, citing three U.S. officials, that at least 45 had been lost, roughly 25% of the fleet.
Niemi signed requirements in May for a cheaper, modular, mass-producible aircraft.
That program, Massed Modular Aircraft, or MMA, opened as a Defense Innovation Unit competition July 7 with the Air Force as partner. The solicitation, which closed July 23, asked for a drone that could fly Reaper-class strike, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare and communications-relay missions cheaply enough to absorb losses. It called for at least 2,800 pounds of payload and an 8,000-nautical-mile one-way ferry range.
That is the aircraft Niemi now prices against Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA. He put CCA air vehicles near $20 million and MMA at about half that, Defense Daily reported.
An Air Force spokesperson said those figures are for the air vehicle only, not a fully missionized aircraft, according to Breaking Defense. In May, Niemi told senators a Reaper with a full sensor package can cost up to $50 million. At the Sept. 3 briefing, he said the Air Force will probably field at least 180 MMA drones.
Niemi argued the Reaper’s value is not the airframe.
“What makes the MQ-9 special has nothing to do with the aircraft itself,” he said, calling its speed, altitude and range decades-old technology.
Initial MMA versions, he said, will rely on proven technology rather than new systems to hit the price. He described a long-aspect-wing turboprop in the “4,000 miles-type class,” farther and heavier than a CCA but slower. Officials did not say how that class relates to the 8,000-nautical-mile ferry range in the July notice.
General Atomics is bidding a design it calls Wildfire, first reported by Aviation Week in August. Spokesman C. Mark Brinkley told Air & Space Forces Magazine it “meets every wish on the [MMA] list and exceeds most of them,” but declined to give capabilities or cost. The company has not released images.
Brinkley told The War Zone in August that treating MMA as a Reaper replacement misses the immediate need for a backfill. Wildfire does not depend on winning the competition, he said, and “we can deliver Wildfires years earlier than the current schedule.”
He framed the design targets as considerations rather than specs, among them a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range, four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles and 100 aircraft under semi-autonomous control.
Col. Todd Dye, senior materiel leader in the Air Force’s medium-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance division, said awards for MMA concept refinement were expected in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Breaking Defense reported.
Officials did not announce a new date at the Sept. 3 briefing.
Michael Scanlon is a defense journalist covering air and space warfare. A former U.S. Air Force A-10 crew chief, he has supported land and sea programs for the U.S. Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard.
Facts Only
* The U.S. Air Force is accelerating the timeline for a successor to the MQ-9A Reaper.
* Lt. Gen. Christopher Niemi stated that a follow-on was under discussion as the MQ-9 aged out.
* Air Force Secretary Troy Meink directed the acceleration, which could pull forward the fiscal 2031 target of 20 mission-ready aircraft by two years.
* The fleet was down to about 135 MQ-9A aircraft by May.
* General Atomics shut down MQ-9A production in 2025.
* Budget constraints made buying many upgraded MQ-9B SkyGuardians unrealistic, and the procurement of 100 aircraft was not feasible based on stated figures.
* The Massed Modular Aircraft (MMA) program was established as a competition involving the Air Force.
* The MMA solicitation asked for a drone capable of Reaper-class missions, requiring at least 2,800 pounds of payload and an 8,000-nautical-mile one-way ferry range.
* Cost estimates place the MMA air vehicle near half the cost of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), which was estimated near $20 million.
* Niemi argued the value of the MQ-9 is not in the airframe itself.
* General Atomics is bidding on a design called Wildfire for the MMA competition.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative centers on the tension between operational necessity—stemming from combat losses and aging assets—and budgetary constraints when planning future military platforms. The acceleration of procurement signals a strategic shift toward cost-effectiveness, moving away from reliance on existing systems to developing modular alternatives like MMA. A critical observation is the pivot in focus: the discussion shifts from optimizing the existing platform (MQ-9) to inventing a fundamentally different architecture based on lower-cost principles, evidenced by Niemi's assertion that the core value of the MQ-9 lies outside its hardware specifications.
The structure presents a managed progression where losses and aging necessitate action, creating pressure for innovation. The reference points—comparing MMA costs against CCA estimates and discussing production limitations—serve to frame the solution as an immediate budgetary necessity rather than purely a technological pursuit. The ambiguity surrounding final figures, such as the relationship between the 8,000-nautical-mile ferry range requirement and actual achievable performance, suggests that the competition phase is more about establishing acceptable design parameters for future requirements than locking down immediate specifications.
What patterns emerge are those of institutional friction: the need to manage loss (backfilling), control spending (budget constraints), and redefine value (the debate over airframe vs. capability). The implication is that modernization efforts often operate at the intersection of political deadlines, logistical realities, and technological aspirations, where perceived gaps in existing systems become the primary drivers for disruptive, though constrained, innovation.
Bridge questions: If cost savings are the ultimate goal, what specific metrics—beyond the initial payload and range targets—will determine the success of the MMA competition? How will the Air Force balance the immediate operational backfill needs with the long-term development of a fundamentally new architecture, given competing design paths like Wildfire? What is the long-term impact on maintaining necessary surveillance capabilities when focusing heavily on cost-reduction in hardware?
Sentinel — Human
The text reads like traditional defense journalism, synthesizing various reports and official statements to track an evolving military procurement process.