US President Donald Trump said, "Cuba is next" on his list after the “successes” of military action in Venezuela and Iran. He was speaking at a Saudi-backed FII Priority investment forum in Miami on Friday, local time.
Trump quickly dismissed it and asked the media to “pretend I didn't say it”.
He did not specify what precisely he was planning to do with the island nation, but Trump has frequently said he believes the government in Havana, facing a severe economic crisis, is on the verge of collapse.
According to Reuters, the Trump administration has opened up negotiations with Cuba in recent weeks. He himself has hinted that kinetic action is possible on several occasions.
"I built this great military. I said, 'You'll never have to use it.' But sometimes you have to use it," Trump told the conference on Friday.
“And Cuba is next, by the way!” Trump said. "But pretend I didn't say that. Pretend I didn't."
“Please, please, please, media, disregard that statement. Thank you very much,” the US president said.
On Monday, Trump said he believes he will have the "honour" of taking Cuba.
“I do believe I’ll be the honour of — having the honour of taking Cuba. That’d be a good honour — that’s a big honour. I mean, whether I free it, take it. I think I can do anything I want with it, you want to know the truth,” Trump said.
He had said Cuba may be subject to a "friendly takeover," before adding: "It may not be a friendly takeover."
Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel acknowledged that the island country is in talks with the US led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants, in a bid to avert potential military confrontation, Reuters said.
Earlier this week, Rubio said that Cuba would collapse “on its own” and that Havana’s leaders “don’t know how to fix” it.
Cuba's economy has been battered by disruptions in oil imports, which it relies on to run power plants and transportation. Venezuela had provided much of Cuba's oil needs before the US operation to capture now-deposed Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro in January.
The new Caracas government, under pressure from Washington, has ended those shipments.
Reacting to Trump's frequent warnings of a Cuba takeover, the nation's deputy foreign minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, issued a stern warning to the United States, saying the island’s military is “prepared”.
Carlos told NBC that he couldn't comprehend why America would hit the island, noting that their “military is always prepared. And in fact it is preparing these days for the possibility of military aggression".
He said Cuba has always viewed such a possibility as distant and unlikely, but “it would be foolish not to stay prepared”.
Carlos also noted that Cuba’s economy sharply deteriorated after the Trump administration captured Maduro, and accused Washington of pressuring other countries with “coercive measures” to prevent fuel shipments to the island.
Arshdeep Kaur is a Senior Content Producer at Mint, where she reports and edits across national and international politics, business and culture‑adjacent trending stories for digital audience. With five years in the newsroom, she strives to balance the speed and rigor of fast‑moving news cycles and longer, context‑rich explainers.
Before joining LiveMint, Arshdeep served as a Senior Sub‑Editor at Business Standard and earlier as a Sub‑Editor at Asian News International (ANI). Her experience spans live news flows, enterprise features, and multi‑platform packaging.
At Mint, she regularly writes explainers, quick takes, and visuals‑led stories that are optimized for search and social, while maintaining the publication’s standards for accuracy and clarity. She collaborates closely with editors and the audience team to frame angles that resonate with readers in India and abroad, and to translate complex developments into accessible, high‑impact journalism.
Arshdeep's academic training underpins her interest towards policy and markets. She earned an MA in Economics from Panjab University and holds a Post‑Graduate Diploma in Broadcast Journalism from the India Today Media Institute (ITMI). This blend of economics and broadcast storytelling informs her coverage of public policy, elections, macro themes, and the consumer‑internet zeitgeist.
Arshdeep is based in New Delhi, where she tracks breaking developments and longer‑horizon storylines that shape public discourse.
Facts Only
US President Donald Trump stated "Cuba is next" during a speech at a Saudi-backed investment forum in Miami on Friday.
Trump later asked the media to "pretend I didn't say that" and to disregard the statement.
Trump has previously suggested he may "take" Cuba, describing it as a potential "honour" and implying both "friendly" and non-friendly takeover scenarios.
The Trump administration has engaged in negotiations with Cuba in recent weeks, as reported by Reuters.
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel confirmed talks with the US, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Cuba's economy is in crisis due to disruptions in oil imports, previously supplied by Venezuela.
Venezuela stopped oil shipments to Cuba after the US operation to remove Nicolás Maduro in January.
Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío warned that Cuba's military is "prepared" for potential US aggression.
Fernández de Cossío accused the US of using "coercive measures" to prevent fuel shipments to Cuba.
Trump has repeatedly claimed Cuba's government is on the verge of collapse.
Marco Rubio stated that Cuba would collapse "on its own" due to its leaders' inability to address economic issues.
The US has increased pressure on Cuba through sanctions and diplomatic isolation.
Executive Summary
US President Donald Trump has made repeated statements suggesting potential military action against Cuba, most recently at a Saudi-backed investment forum in Miami. He claimed Cuba is "next" after unspecified "successes" in Venezuela and Iran, though he later asked the media to disregard the comment. Trump has hinted at both "friendly" and non-friendly takeovers, asserting he could "do anything" with Cuba. The Cuban government, facing severe economic strain due to disrupted oil imports—previously supplied by Venezuela—has acknowledged ongoing negotiations with the US, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to avoid confrontation. Cuban officials have warned that their military is prepared for potential aggression, while also blaming US sanctions for worsening their economic crisis. The situation remains tense, with Trump's rhetoric oscillating between threats and diplomatic engagement, and Cuba signaling both readiness for conflict and a willingness to negotiate.
The economic backdrop is critical: Cuba's energy sector has been crippled by the loss of Venezuelan oil shipments, a direct consequence of US pressure on Caracas following the removal of Nicolás Maduro. Cuban Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío has accused Washington of coercing other nations to block fuel shipments, exacerbating the island's hardships. Meanwhile, Trump's statements—ranging from dismissive to belligerent—reflect a broader pattern of unpredictable foreign policy, leaving both allies and adversaries uncertain about US intentions. The negotiations, confirmed by both sides, suggest a possible off-ramp, but the inflammatory rhetoric and economic pressure complicate any diplomatic resolution.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative frames Trump's statements as a mix of bluster and strategic ambiguity, designed to pressure Cuba while leaving room for negotiation. The acknowledgment of talks—led by a high-profile Cuban-American like Rubio—suggests a dual-track approach: economic and rhetorical pressure paired with backchannel diplomacy. The Cuban response, balancing military readiness with diplomatic engagement, reflects a calculated effort to deter aggression while seeking relief from sanctions. The economic context is undeniable: Cuba's crisis is real, and the loss of Venezuelan oil is a direct result of US policy. This creates a plausible case for Trump's assertion that Cuba is vulnerable, even if his methods are unpredictable.
However, patterns of manipulation are detectable. Trump's "pretend I didn't say that" remark is a classic example of **ARC-0024 Ambiguity**, allowing him to test reactions while retaining plausible deniability. His oscillating rhetoric—between threats and diplomatic overtures—resembles **ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey**, where aggressive statements are later softened or retracted to avoid accountability. The framing of a "takeover" as potentially "friendly" also echoes **ARC-0018 Predatory Liberation Rhetoric**, where intervention is justified as benevolent despite coercive undertones. The economic pressure on Cuba, while a policy tool, aligns with **ARC-0030 Systemic Mission Drift**, where stated goals (e.g., democracy promotion) may mask broader geopolitical objectives.
Root causes include the US's long-standing Cuba policy, which oscillates between isolation and engagement, and Trump's transactional approach to foreign relations. The assumption that Cuba's collapse is inevitable—and that US intervention would be stabilizing—ignores historical patterns of resistance and unintended consequences. The second-order implications are significant: military action could destabilize the region, trigger refugee crises, and further polarize global opinion on US interventionism. Human agency is at stake for Cubans, who face both economic hardship and the specter of external control.
Bridge questions: How would Cuba's neighbors—particularly in Latin America—respond to US military action, given their historical skepticism of intervention? What evidence would change the assessment of whether Trump's threats are genuine or purely rhetorical? Missing perspectives include the voices of ordinary Cubans, regional actors like Mexico or the EU, and alternative diplomatic pathways beyond US-led negotiations.
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would amplify Trump's threats while downplaying diplomatic efforts, portraying Cuba as a failed state requiring liberation. It would exploit economic hardship to justify intervention and frame opposition as pro-authoritarian. The actual content partially matches this pattern—Trump's rhetoric is inflammatory, and economic suffering is highlighted—but the acknowledgment of negotiations and Cuban agency complicates the narrative. The presence of diplomatic engagement, even if tense, suggests this is not a pure propaganda play but a high-stakes geopolitical maneuver with real-world consequences.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity, ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey, ARC-0018 Predatory Liberation Rhetoric, ARC-0030 Systemic Mission Drift