South Korea's Arctic shipping ambitions on ice due to high costs and low volumes
South Korea’s Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (MOF) is struggling to attract local shipping companies ...
DHL: NEW DAC: SHIPPING UPSIDEWMT: MARKETPLACE GROWTH ABROADWMT: WALMART SVP INSIGHTWMT: EYES ON INVENTORYJBHT: THE STORM AFTER TOP EXECS INSIGHT JBHT: NOTHING NEW TO SEE HERE DHL: NEW TIESDSV: DOWN DSV: ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER LOW JBHT: BENEFITING FROM HIGH COST OF FUEL JBHT: RISING COSTSJBHT: DRAYAGE CAPACITY ON THE RADARJBHT: FROM HIGHWAY TO INTERMODALJBHT: CFO INSIGHTJBHT: READ THE CYCLEKNIN: HEALTHCARE LOGISTICS INVESTMENT DISCLOSED
DHL: NEW DAC: SHIPPING UPSIDEWMT: MARKETPLACE GROWTH ABROADWMT: WALMART SVP INSIGHTWMT: EYES ON INVENTORYJBHT: THE STORM AFTER TOP EXECS INSIGHT JBHT: NOTHING NEW TO SEE HERE DHL: NEW TIESDSV: DOWN DSV: ANOTHER DAY ANOTHER LOW JBHT: BENEFITING FROM HIGH COST OF FUEL JBHT: RISING COSTSJBHT: DRAYAGE CAPACITY ON THE RADARJBHT: FROM HIGHWAY TO INTERMODALJBHT: CFO INSIGHTJBHT: READ THE CYCLEKNIN: HEALTHCARE LOGISTICS INVESTMENT DISCLOSED
Ocean freight risk is expected to remain elevated across the major Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trades over the next four weeks, with deteriorating schedule reliability emerging as a key concern, according to WiseTech Global’s new Ocean Freight Risk Outlook.
The monthly report, launched today, provides a four-week forward-looking view of ocean freight capacity and risk across major trade lanes.
On Asia-North America, WiseTech summarised: “Freight risk is expected to remain elevated over the month ahead, driven primarily by booking acceptance risk and weak service reliability rather than a sustained capacity constraint.”
According to its data, the demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to rise from 76% in week 37 to 100% in week 38, before falling to 79% and then 91%. WiseTech said the temporary tightening is driven by reduced planned carrier capacity rather than stronger demand.
Booking security risk is expected to remain around or above its historical average, rising to just above 40% in later weeks. Meanwhile, monthly on-time performance fell from 43% in May to 33.9% in August, with weekly performance dropping to 29.4% in week 35.
One-to-three-day delays have also become the largest outcome, replacing on-time arrivals.
Port performance remains below its historical average, while vessel queues at major Asian ports continue to present a potential source of schedule variability. Forward transit times, however, remain broadly in line with the 27.6-day baseline.
WiseTech’s report also highlighted that performance varies substantially between the top 10 carriers, highlighting the importance of carrier selection where timing or capacity access is critical.
Meanwhile, on Asia-Europe, WiseTech warned: “Freight risk is expected to remain elevated over the month ahead, driven primarily by weak service reliability rather than capacity availability or booking acceptance.”
The demand-to-supply ratio on this trade is forecast to remain between 72% and 82%, with capacity above forecast demand throughout the outlook. Booking security risk is also relatively low, at around 19%-22%.
But reliability remains the main issue. Monthly on-time performance declined from 34.3% in May to 22.9% in August, while weekly performance fell as low as 16.2% in week 34 before recovering to 24.5% in week 35.
One-to-three-day delays remain the largest category, although their share fell to 30.2% in the latest week. Forward transit times of 40.8-42.9 days remain broadly around the 41.8-day baseline.
Jon Charles, product manager at WiseTech, told The Loadstar: “Multiple factors are at play, and the type of resulting risk varies significantly by trade lane.”
He said capacity risk was the main concern on Asia-North America, supported by stronger US consumer and import demand, combined with more aggressive blank sailings and carrier capacity management.
On Asia-Europe, he said capacity pressure had eased as consumer-goods demand softened, carriers withdrew less capacity and the selective return to Suez shortened voyages and released effective capacity.
“However, the transition between routings is also contributing to schedule disruption and, together with weak on-time performance, means service reliability remains a risk,” he said.
For freight forwarders and cargo owners, Mr Charles said the consequences could include difficulty securing space, longer or less predictable lead times, and higher inventory and supply chain costs.
“Businesses can’t control market disruption, but they can reduce their exposure through earlier planning and more informed carrier selection,” he said.
The Ocean Freight Risk Outlook provides a monthly snapshot of expected conditions, while underlying CargoWise forecasts are updated weekly using booking activity, forecast demand, planned carrier capacity, booking responses, port conditions and operational performance.
Mr Charles said the data is intended to provide an early indication of where risk is increasing or easing, giving businesses time to adjust carrier selection, bring bookings forward, increase lead-time allowances or warn customers of potential delays.
“This level of detail has historically been difficult for shippers and freight forwarders to access from a single source,” he added.
For uninterrupted access, sign in or sign up to The Daily News, Premium or The Loadstar Enterprise Plan.
Comment on this article
Facts Only
* WiseTech Global launched the Ocean Freight Risk Outlook.
* The outlook provides a four-week forecast for ocean freight capacity and risk.
* Asia-North America freight risk is elevated due to booking acceptance risk and weak service reliability.
* The Asia-North America demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to move from 76% (week 37) to 100% (week 38), then to 79% and 91%.
* Asia-North America monthly on-time performance fell from 43% in May to 33.9% in August.
* Asia-Europe freight risk is elevated due to weak service reliability.
* The Asia-Europe demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to remain between 72% and 82%.
* Asia-Europe monthly on-time performance fell from 34.3% in May to 22.9% in August.
* Forward transit times for Asia-North America are 27.6 days.
* Forward transit times for Asia-Europe are 40.8 to 42.9 days.
* Jon Charles is the product manager at WiseTech.
Executive Summary
Ocean freight risks remain elevated across major Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trade lanes, though the drivers of these risks differ by region. In the Asia-North America trade, the primary concerns are booking acceptance and schedule reliability, exacerbated by aggressive carrier capacity management and strong consumer demand in the US. Conversely, the Asia-Europe trade faces risks driven almost exclusively by weak service reliability, even as capacity remains sufficient to meet softened consumer-goods demand.
Reliability has declined significantly in both lanes, with on-time performance dropping since May. Short delays of one to three days have largely replaced on-time arrivals as the most common outcome. While transit times remain broadly aligned with historical baselines, vessel queues at Asian ports continue to introduce variability. These conditions create a volatile environment for cargo owners and forwarders, potentially leading to higher inventory costs and unpredictable lead times, making informed carrier selection and early planning critical for mitigating exposure.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative is a data-driven warning: global shipping is currently defined by a crisis of reliability rather than a crisis of capacity. By quantifying the gap between "planned capacity" and "actual performance," the narrative provides shippers with a pragmatic framework to shift from passive waiting to active carrier selection.
However, the structure follows a distinct commercial logic. The narrative establishes a climate of unpredictability—specifically citing declining on-time percentages and "elevated risk"—and then positions a specific proprietary tool (CargoWise) as the sole mechanism for visibility. This is a classic "problem-solution" loop where the evidence of the problem is provided by the same entity selling the solution. The emphasis on the difficulty of accessing this data from a "single source" reinforces the necessity of the vendor's specific ecosystem.
Patterns detected: ARC-0043 Authority Game, ARC-0024 Fear Appeal
The underlying paradigm is the "commoditization of foresight." The assumption is that data-driven predictability can neutralize systemic logistical chaos. This echoes the broader corporate trend of replacing operational resilience (holding more stock) with algorithmic optimization (just-in-time precision). The primary beneficiary is the software provider, while the cost is borne by shippers who may become over-reliant on a single proprietary data stream for critical decision-making.
If this were an influence campaign, the playbook would involve manufacturing a sense of urgency through selectively highlighted "risk" metrics to drive software adoption. While the data provided is precise, the framing is designed to make the user feel blind without the tool. The actual content aligns with this pattern of vendor-driven threat intelligence.
Bridge Questions:
1. To what extent does the "risk" described stem from external shocks versus the internal capacity management strategies of the carriers themselves?
2. Would a diversified carrier strategy be more effective than relying on a single data-forecast tool?
3. What happens to supply chain stability when the industry moves from shared standards to proprietary "risk outlooks"?
Sentinel — Human
This piece functions as a reliable summary of a specialized market report, characterized by factual reporting supplemented by expert analysis on logistics risks.