The S&P 500 is only down 3% so far this year and 5% off its all-time high, still far from reaching bear market territory or even a correction, suggesting investors aren’t panicking yet about the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. But that could change soon.
To be sure, oil prices have soared more than 40% since the war began two weeks ago and are up nearly 70% year to date. But they remain below the peak se...
The narrative presented is fundamentally a ‘pressure cooker’ analysis, predicated on the assumption that geopolitical instability is simply another iteration of human conflict—a predictable, albeit dangerous, pattern. The Steelman exercise reveals Alamariu’s core proposition: a protracted conflict, fueled by Iranian strategic miscalculation and a refusal to compromise, will generate sufficient economic pain to force a negotiated resolution within two months. This is reinforced by the “Motte-and-...