America has been napping or distracted by trivialities while China is racing toward the future, in part by taking advantage of President Trump's trade, immigration and budget policies.
That's the eye-opening reality that Evan Osnos unfurls in a 12-page piece for The New Yorker, "The Future, Made in China."
Why it matters: China could beat the U.S. to the future on a host of fronts, including engineering a cure for cancer.
What it says: "For China, America's retreat comes just as decades of state investment, industrial policy, and diplomatic planning are paying off," Osnos writes.
An American executivetold him: "People in Washington are worried that biotech is the next E.V.s ... We've scared all of this f*cking talent back to China. If you look at the guys who are doing this, they used to work for Western pharma giants, or they were running a top university department somewhere."
In a flex, China now welcomes Western influencers, investors and commentators on "tech tours" that yield "infrastructure porn" and "Chinamaxxing."
Between the lines: Osnos, who lived in Beijing for eight years as a foreign correspondent, returned for 10 days as part of four months of reporting. He says the capital is noticeably quieter than when he left in 2013 — "an awkward serenity to life in the capital of a high-tech, one-party state."
"The vehicles,many of which are electric now, move silently through the streets, and in any case the residents have fewer reasons to go out; China has the world's busiest e-commerce market, and there isn't much that can't be delivered on the back of a scooter," he writes.
"All day long, people scan each other's QR codes to swap cash on such digital-payment systems as WeChat and Alipay, feeding the algorithms an ever more intricate portrait of their movements and preferences."
The intrigue: The surveillance future is here: Osnos felt constantly watched — because he was, including psychologically. At an AI expo in Beijing, Osnos stood in front of a kiosk that took an emotional X-ray by measuring "micro-gestures" in his face. The results: He possesses 76.67% positive emotion and 23.33% negative emotion, split between fear and rage.
The state can use such readings to zero in on potential disruptors. The same manufacturer makes a scan for schools that assigns pupils an alert level of red, yellow or blue.
By the numbers: China produces 70% of the world's drones, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar cells, the magazine says, and "deploys more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined, and, in medicine, it has surpassed the United States in the number of registered clinical trials."
China's shipbuilding capacityis 200 times that of the U.S.
Friction point: China's rulers avoid "overtly antagonizing America, because they believe that, even in decline, it remains uniquely dangerous."
But Rush Doshi, China specialist at Georgetown and CFR, says that if the U.S. loses the next wave of industries — AI, biotech and robotics — as it lost on solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, "it would irreversibly change the balance of power."
A think tank at Renmin University of China, in Beijing, published a report called "Thank Trump," which argues that his tariffs, attacks on allies and immigration policies have hastened the "twilight of an empire."
The bottom line: A European diplomat who has attended meetings with Xi Jinping and his advisers told Osnos they're "feeling like the champions of the world."
Facts Only
* China is racing toward the future by taking advantage of President Trump's trade, immigration, and budget policies.
* China is advancing through state investment, industrial policy, and diplomatic planning.
* China produces 70% of the world's drones, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells.
* China deploys more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined.
* China has surpassed the United States in the number of registered clinical trials in medicine.
* China's shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the U.S.
* China has the world's busiest e-commerce market, facilitated by digital payment systems like WeChat and Alipay.
* A study involving a foreign correspondent noted a quieter atmosphere in Beijing compared to 2013.
* An emotional X-ray measurement at an AI expo measured 76.67% positive emotion and 23.33% negative emotion (fear and rage).
Executive Summary
China is advancing rapidly in key technological and industrial sectors, positioning itself to compete with the United States for future global dominance. This advancement is supported by decades of state investment, industrial policy, and diplomatic planning. China has achieved significant manufacturing and scientific milestones, including producing 70% of the world's drones, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells, and surpassing the United States in the number of registered clinical trials in medicine. A change in US policies regarding trade, immigration, and budgets is viewed by some as enabling this advancement for China.
The narrative suggests a dynamic shift where China is actively leveraging global attention, welcoming Western influence, and utilizing advanced surveillance technology, such as emotional scanning, to guide development. While some observers suggest that US actions have hastened the decline of an empire, others report a feeling among certain leaders that they are currently positioned as world champions. The process involves significant technological leaps in areas like biotechnology and robotics, with experts suggesting that a loss in these fields would fundamentally alter the global balance of power.
Full Take
The underlying pattern reveals a dynamic tension between state-led technological competition and the perception of global power shifts. The narrative simultaneously presents objective material advantages—such as manufacturing dominance in energy and advanced robotics—and subjective political maneuvering. The focus on surveillance, exemplified by emotional scanning, suggests that the mechanism for future advantage is not solely technological output but also the control and measurement of human behavior. This creates a feedback loop where state power is defined by its ability to quantify and predict disruptive forces.
The tension lies in how geopolitical friction (trade policies) intersects with domestic strategic focus (state investment). The assertion that China benefits from US retreat suggests a zero-sum view of global competition, which is then complicated by the claim that rulers feel they are "champions." This creates an unavoidable cognitive dissonance: objective material strength contrasts with subjective political positioning. The implication for agency is whether state action—whether driven by economic policy or internal surveillance metrics—is fundamentally aligning towards creating a new, more controllable structure of global power rather than fostering open competition.
What assumptions drive the focus on 'decline' versus 'champions'? Does the reliance on quantifiable metrics (like drone production or clinical trials) obscure the qualitative difference in geopolitical leverage? What is the cost to human agency when emotional states are quantified for state advantage? Where does this pattern of self-justification—feeling like champions while being subject to external pressures—lead in future global structures?
Sentinel — Human
The text reads like an excerpt from high-quality investigative journalism, skillfully weaving specific data points with broader geopolitical and technological observations.