HDFC Bank, Bharti Airtel among 10 largecap stocks with up to 35% upside potential. Check list

The recent US-Iran war has pushed crude oil prices above $125 per barrel, reigniting inflation concerns and adding to global market uncertainty. Despite these headwinds, heightened geopolitical risk, and pressure from rising energy costs, here are 10 largecap stocks that could give meaningful returns to investors.
Bharti Airtel - With a target price of Rs 2,266, the brokerage implies an upside potential of 20% from current levels. Premiumisation, supported by rising 5G penetration and continued expansion of 5G network sites, remains a key driver of ARPU growth. With peak 5G capex largely behind, FCF generation is expected to strengthen, aiding balance sheet deleveraging.
Kotak Mahindra Bank - The brokerage has pegged the target price at Rs 500, implying an upside of 30% from current levels. The lender is well placed to maintain healthy double-digit credit growth over the medium term, supported by strong traction in SME and secured retail segments, along with a recovery in unsecured lending excluding MFI as stress levels ease.
Fortis Healthcare - The brokerage has pegged the target price at Rs 1,050, forecasting a 14% upside. The hospital’s margins have expanded by 550 bps year-on-year over FY23 to 9MFY26, reaching 23%, and further improvement is expected. This is likely to be supported by a better case and payor mix, ongoing cost rationalisation efforts, and the ramp-up of the Manesar and Greater Noida units, along with new brownfield bed additions.
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2/4
Axis Direct
Bajaj Finance - With a target price of Rs 1,150, the brokerage implies an upside potential of 22% from current levels. Going ahead, continued distribution expansion and improving branch productivity should drive sustained strong growth. Overall, the management emphasised that growth across businesses will continue to remain strong while maintaining RoA discipline. BAF has maintained its growth guidance at 22-23% for FY26.
State Bank of India - With a target price of Rs 1,350, the brokerage has forecast an upside potential of 26% from current market levels. SBI has delivered the strongest performance among large banks and remains well positioned to sustain this momentum. The bank has raised its credit growth guidance to 13-15%, supported by a revival in corporate demand and steady traction in the RAM segment.
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3/4
Morgan Stanley
L&T - India’s largest construction company is rated Overweight in the industrials sector. The stock has gained 21% over the past year, outperforming the MSCI India index by 12%.
Maruti Suzuki - Morgan Stanley has maintained its Overweight rating on Maruti Suzuki with a target price of Rs 17,895 and has taken a tactical buy view on the stock. The price implies an upside potential of 35% from current levels. It believes margins are likely to bottom out in Q1FY27 and recover thereafter. The brokerage said operating leverage, lower discounts and a richer product mix should help support margins going forward.
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4/4
Jefferies
HDFC Bank - The brokerage has assigned a target price of Rs 1,050, implying an upside of 35% from current levels. It continues to list it among its top picks. Revenue growth, including net interest income and fees, came in slightly below expectations, but this was offset by operating synergies, lower credit costs and higher treasury gains. Deposit growth improved to 14%, which supported loan growth of 12% and led to an around 400 basis points sequential decline in the loan-deposit ratio.
ICICI Bank - Jefferies has maintained its buy rating on ICICI Bank with a target price of Rs 1,670, implying an upside of 32% from current levels. The brokerage expects loan growth to strengthen to around 15% from FY27, supported by improving sector trends and the bank’s focus on balancing growth with margins. It anticipates net interest margins to soften slightly, while fee income growth is likely to pick up from FY27 as the base effect normalises.
Axis Bank - The brokerage has increased weight in the private lender. The brokerage said bank stocks could outperform from current levels, citing “Covid-level low valuations”, limited downside to earnings per share, and the likelihood of government support. It also highlighted that the Nifty Bank price-to-book is near historic lows, at just about 10% above Covid levels. Axis Bank shares are up 8% in the last one year.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

Facts Only

Bharti Airtel has a target price of Rs 2,266, implying a 20% upside.
Kotak Mahindra Bank has a target price of Rs 500, implying a 30% upside.
Fortis Healthcare has a target price of Rs 1,050, forecasting a 14% upside.
Axis Direct has a target price of Rs 1,150, implying a 22% upside.
State Bank of India has a target price of Rs 1,350, implying a 26% upside.
Maruti Suzuki has a target price of Rs 17,895, implying a 35% upside.
HDFC Bank has a target price of Rs 1,050, implying a 35% upside.
ICICI Bank has a target price of Rs 1,670, implying a 32% upside.
The brokerage forecasts credit growth for SBI to be 13-15%, supported by corporate demand.
The brokerage forecasts loan growth for ICICI Bank to strengthen to around 15% from FY27.
Fortis Healthcare's margins expanded by 550 bps year-on-year over FY23 to 9MFY26, reaching 23%.

Executive Summary

Geopolitical events and rising energy costs have increased global market uncertainty and pushed crude oil prices above $125 per barrel. Despite these macroeconomic headwinds, the analysis identifies ten largecap stocks with potential returns. Specific recommendations are based on brokerage targets and forward-looking sector trends. For example, Bharti Airtel's upside potential is implied at 20%, driven by premiumization and 5G expansion, while HDFC Bank has a target price of Rs 1,050, suggesting a 35% upside. Other recommendations focus on credit growth, margin expansion, and capital expenditure management across the banking, infrastructure, and healthcare sectors. These targets reflect expectations regarding corporate earnings, growth trajectory, and balance sheet health within the current environment.

Full Take

The narrative frames specific largecap stocks as safe havens or opportunities amidst global energy and geopolitical instability, suggesting that internal corporate drivers (like premiumization in telecom, credit growth in banking, and margin expansion in healthcare) can insulate performance from external volatility. This approach relies heavily on the assumption that sector-specific growth drivers will outpace broader macroeconomic uncertainty. A pattern emerges where volatility is used as a justification for focused, highly optimistic targets, effectively pivoting the focus from systemic risk to idiosyncratic corporate performance. The specific focus on credit growth and asset-heavy sectors (like L&T and banks) suggests a reliance on cyclical recovery. The underlying assumption is that strong domestic economic momentum, rather than external energy shocks, will dictate future returns. This pattern can be analyzed under the ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey, as the analysis attempts to establish a fortified position (the stock) against external pressures.
The root cause of this framing lies in exploiting the psychological tension created by global instability. The implied pattern is that stable, domestically focused businesses will possess inherent resilience that external market noise obscures. This overlooks the systemic risk inherent in reliance on cyclical credit growth and infrastructure spending to deliver sustained upside. The implications are that investors might prioritize specific, quantifiable corporate growth metrics over a holistic assessment of the broader geopolitical environment, potentially overlooking contingent risks. Bridge questions include: What happens when the domestic credit cycle slows? How does the reliance on internal margin expansion distract from external supply chain vulnerabilities? Does focusing on specific targets mask the broader risk of market-wide deflationary pressures?