Study: Mass deportation has ‘chilling’ effect on labor market for immigrant, US-citizen workers May 15, 2026By Kate Scanlon OSV News Filed Under: Feature, Immigration and Migration, News, World News WASHINGTON (OSV News) — A mass deportation effort carried out by President Donald Trump’s administration could have a significant chilling effect on the economy and the labor market, including for U.S.-born workers, according to a new estimate. The findings were in the working paper “Labor Market Impacts of ICE Activity in Trump 2.0,” released in early May by co-authors Chloe East, an associate professor of economics at the University of Colorado Boulder, and Elizabeth Cox, a research assistant with CU’s Institute for Behavioral Science. East and Cox compared U.S. regions that experienced “a large and sudden increase” in monthly ICE arrests between January 2025 and October 2025 with regions that did not, and found a “meaningful chilling effect” on the labor markets in the areas that had the surges. “We show that heightened ICE activity is harming the labor market overall, and we find no evidence that it is benefiting U.S.-born workers,” East said in a statement. “If anything, job opportunities for U.S.-born workers are going down as a result.” No U.S. national survey asks for immigration status, so the economists used a proxy model to estimate populations of unauthorized immigrants, they said. Using that model, East and Cox found that, on average, in a region that had experienced an ICE surge, 4% fewer “likely undocumented” immigrants remaining in the community reported working in the previous week. J. Kevin Appleby, senior fellow for policy at the Center for Migration Studies of New York and the former director of migration policy for the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops, told OSV News the CU Boulder research shows that “while it may seem counterintuitive to some, undocumented immigrants working in certain industries stimulate growth in the economy, thus generating jobs in related occupations.” “And studies have shown that most U.S. citizens shy away from jobs immigrants perform,” he said. “As a result, mass deportations can depress the economy and increase prices by shrinking the labor force.” The researchers also found no evidence that employers increased wages to attract U.S.-born workers for roles previously filled by undocumented immigrants, or that U.S.-citizen workers had more job opportunities after the ICE enforcement surges. On average, it found, in regions that had an ICE surge, 1.3% fewer U.S.-born males with a high school degree or less had jobs. “There is a common narrative out there that mass deportations will free up job opportunities for U.S.-born workers, but numerous studies, including ours, have shown that is false,” East said. “If a construction company can’t find laborers, they’re going to take on less work and hire fewer people overall.” The study found this impact was particularly significant in the agriculture, manufacturing and construction sectors. Clayton Sinyai, a labor adviser for the Catholic Labor Network, told OSV News, “Mass deportation of immigrants living in our midst isn’t just cruel — it actually reduces job opportunities for native born workers.” “That’s why the Church and the AFL-CIO agree that any solution to the challenges of immigration must include a path to citizenship for undocumented workers who have otherwise obeyed the law and contributed to our community,” he said. Aimee Shelide Mayer, that group’s executive director, added that “Catholic social teaching insists that every worker is a human person with dignity, not simply a cog in the wheel to be discarded when politically convenient.” “The evidence increasingly shows that mass deportation policies do not strengthen working families; they disrupt local economies, shrink the labor force, and can harm both immigrant and U.S.-born workers alike, especially in industries already facing labor shortages,” Shelide Mayer told OSV News. “A just immigration approach must uphold the rule of law while also recognizing the deep contributions immigrant workers make to our communities and creating realistic pathways for long-term, law-abiding workers to remain with their families and participate fully in the common good.” Catholic social teaching on immigration balances three interrelated principles — the right of persons to migrate in order to sustain their lives and those of their families; the right of a country to regulate its borders and control immigration; and a nation’s duty to regulate its borders with justice and mercy. “The moral issue here is that while immigrants help us economically, we are happy to scapegoat them, divide their families, and accept their sweat equity at very low wages,” Appleby added. “As a nation, we need to acknowledge this contradiction and provide them with legal protection.” Read More Immigration and Migration Communion and Liberation founder’s sainthood cause heads to Vatican Police recover beloved saint’s relic taken in brazen theft that shocked Czech Catholics UK diocese opens Pedro Ballester’s sainthood cause Supreme Court leaves in place mail-order distribution of mifepristone during legal challenge New Senate bill aims to protect privacy for charitable donors following pregnancy center case Proposed regulations would further restrict housing, work eligibility for migrants Copyright © 2026 OSV News Print
Facts Only
* A study compared U.S. regions with a large and sudden increase in monthly ICE arrests between January 2025 and October 2025 with regions that did not.
* The study found a meaningful chilling effect on the labor markets in the areas that experienced the ICE surges.
* Heightened ICE activity was found to be harming the labor market overall.
* The study found no evidence that ICE activity benefited U.S.-born workers.
* In regions with an ICE surge, 4% fewer "likely undocumented" immigrants remaining in the community reported working in the previous week.
* In regions with an ICE surge, 1.3% fewer U.S.-born males with a high school degree or less had jobs.
* The impact was particularly significant in the agriculture, manufacturing, and construction sectors.
* The researchers used a proxy model to estimate populations of unauthorized immigrants, as no U.S. national survey asks for immigration status.
* No evidence was found that employers increased wages to attract U.S.-born workers, or that U.S.-citizen workers had more job opportunities after ICE enforcement surges.
Executive Summary
A mass deportation effort by the Trump administration is estimated to have a chilling effect on the labor market, specifically impacting U.S.-born workers. Research conducted by Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox compared regions experiencing a large and sudden increase in ICE arrests between January 2025 and October 2025 with those that did not. The study found a meaningful chilling effect on labor markets in regions with ICE surges. The economists found no evidence that heightened ICE activity benefited U.S.-born workers; instead, job opportunities for U.S.-born workers decreased. On average, regions with an ICE surge saw 1.3% fewer U.S.-born males with a high school degree or less having jobs. The impact was particularly significant in the agriculture, manufacturing, and construction sectors. While some argue that undocumented immigrants stimulate economic growth and generate jobs in related occupations, the research concluded that mass deportations depress the economy and shrink the labor force. Expert commentary notes that this dynamic is complex, suggesting that while some studies show economic stimulation, mass deportations disrupt local economies and harm both immigrant and U.S.-born workers.
Full Take
The core finding that mass deportations reduce job opportunities for U.S.-born workers challenges the common narrative that such actions liberate job markets. This suggests a fundamental disconnect between the policy mechanism and the observed economic outcome. The study demonstrates that when labor pools are forcibly reduced, the resulting scarcity impacts native-born workers directly, rather than simply freeing up roles. The complexity arises when considering the counter-narratives, such as the argument that immigrant labor stimulates growth, and the ethical concerns raised by religious and social justice perspectives regarding the human dignity of workers. The pattern suggests that economic distress, when channeled through border enforcement, disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, leading to negative systemic consequences for the broader community. This framework requires questioning whether economic efficiency, when pursued through exclusion, can be reconciled with principles of justice and community well-being. The implications suggest that border policies must account for the human cost and the immediate labor market effects on all residents, not just specific demographic groups.
Sentinel — Human
Confidence
The analysis presents a complex synthesis of economic research and ethical commentary, exhibiting the layered depth and attribution typical of human-authored, high-level journalistic work.
Signals Detected
low severity: Moderate sentence length variance and natural flow; successful integration of specialized academic and moral language.
low severity: Strong thematic cohesion, successfully weaving together quantitative economic findings with qualitative moral and policy arguments.
low severity: Expert voices (economists, labor advocates, religious thinkers) are integrated logically to build a complex argument, not merely listed.
low severity: Specific statistical claims are directly tied to cited academic sources; the philosophical arguments are contextualized by attributed doctrine.
Human Indicators
The sophisticated integration of specialized academic findings (proxy models, behavioral science) with high-level philosophical and moral commentary (Catholic social teaching) suggests a nuanced, human editorial perspective.
The text successfully navigates a complex, controversial topic by attributing diverse, specific viewpoints rather than presenting a monolithic, AI-generated stance.