New Delhi: Rainfall activity is likely to remain widespread across several parts of India through 21 September, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) also forecasting thunderstorms and lightning in many regions. North-west, central, eastern and western parts of the country are expected to witness spells of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during the week.
In the north-west, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and lightning, is likely over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on 16-17 September. Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad are expected to experience similar weather on 17 September. Other parts of northwest India are likely to see isolated to scattered rainfall, with thunderstorms and lightning.
Rainfall activity is also expected to remain significant in central India. West Madhya Pradesh is likely to get fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during 17-19 September, while east Madhya Pradesh is expected to see similar conditions during 16-17 September. Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh are likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during 20-21 September and 19-21 September, respectively.
The eastern region is likely to remain wet through much of the period. The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are forecast to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall throughout 16-21 September. Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to see widespread rainfall during 16-20 September, while Gangetic West Bengal is expected to get similar rains during 16-20 September. Odisha could get widespread rains during 19-21 September.
Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during 16-21 September, while Odisha is expected to see similar activity during 16-18 September, the IMD said.
In the north-east, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh during 16-17 September and over Assam and Meghalaya on 16 September. Isolated to scattered rainfall is forecast over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya and the remaining northeastern states during various periods through 21 September.
West India is also expected to remain active. Konkan and Goa are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rain on 16 September and again during 19-21 September. Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada throughout 16-21 September.
The forecast comes as the southwest monsoon enters its final phase, with rainfall distribution remaining uneven across regions. Continued rainfall in central, eastern and western parts could provide some relief to agricultural areas, while thunderstorms and lightning could pose risks to people, transport and outdoor activities.
The south-west monsoon season has so far brought cumulative rainfall of 673.6 mm during 1 June-14 September, 15% lower than the the normal 790.1 mm.
Meanwhile, conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan around 19 September, signalling the onset of the retreating phase of the four-month rainy season.
The southwest monsoon typically starts withdrawing from the north-west in September, with its retreat progressing gradually towards the south and east. The development will be closely watched as the monsoon accounts for about 70% of India's annual rainfall and its withdrawal marks the transition towards the post-monsoon season.
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
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Facts Only
* Rainfall activity is likely to remain widespread across several parts of India through September 21.
* The IMD forecasts thunderstorms and lightning in many regions.
* North-west India, including Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, and Punjab, is expected to see fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with thunderstorms and lightning on September 16-17.
* Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Muzaffarabad are expected to experience similar weather on September 17.
* West Madhya Pradesh is likely to get fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from September 17-19.
* East Madhya Pradesh is expected to see similar conditions from September 16-17.
* Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh are likely to experience fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from September 20-21 and September 19-21, respectively.
* The Andaman & Nicobar Islands are forecast to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall throughout September 16-21.
* Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to see widespread rainfall from September 16-20.
* Gangetic West Bengal is expected to have similar rains on September 16-20.
* Odisha could get widespread rains from September 19-21.
* Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive isolated to scattered rainfall during September 16-21.
* Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is likely over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam/Meghalaya on September 16-17.
* Konkan and Goa are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rain on September 16 and September 19-21.
* Isolated to scattered rainfall is likely over Madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada throughout September 16-21.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The forecasting pattern reveals a highly fragmented distribution of monsoon activity, where widespread rainfall is predicted across numerous states simultaneously, yet the intensity and location are highly localized. This suggests an atmospheric system operating in multiple, overlapping zones rather than a single, uniform front; the persistence of both widespread and isolated precipitation indicates complex hydrological conditions affecting different geographical zones unevenly. The transition into the retreating phase, signaled by the expected withdrawal from west Rajasthan around September 19th, implies that while immediate relief may come from continued rainfall in agricultural areas, the system is already shifting towards a post-monsoon state, creating tension between short-term water availability and long-term seasonal expectations. The co-occurrence of widespread rain with localized thunderstorms introduces a duality: potential for agricultural benefit juxtaposed with specific risks to infrastructure and safety. The pattern suggests that while macro-level climatic shifts favor overall moisture availability in some areas, micro-level decision-making must account for the spatial unpredictability inherent in forecasting intense, localized weather events across diverse geographies.
Bridge Questions: What are the underlying synoptic features driving this fragmentation of precipitation zones? How does the predicted withdrawal phase interact with the current rainfall distribution to affect future agricultural planning? What specific mechanisms lead to high confidence in widespread predictions versus isolated reports in this multi-state scenario?
Sentinel — Human
The text displays the structure and detail typical of factual weather reporting combined with an integrated source profile, strongly suggesting human authorship or professional editorial structuring.