The planet is about to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold, the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement, which has guided global climate action for the past decade. Still, the ambition to limit warming to 1.5°C must persist. That is the seemingly paradoxical message from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
In a report published on Wednesday, September 2, the organization outlined a new scenario that anticipates exceeding the 1.5°C target, followed by a temperature peak and then a decline, bringing temperatures back below the 1.5 °C threshold by the end of the century. This trajectory would involve enormous efforts, radical transformations and significant uncertainties, but is presented as "the best remaining option." "Every fraction of a degree avoided and every year by which overshoot is shortened will save lives, protect ecosystems and reduce economic losses," said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
With this document, the organization acknowledged for the first time that keeping warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is now impossible, following scientific findings. According to the Paris Agreement definition, which refers to a long-term average and not a single year, the threshold will likely be crossed before 2030. The single-year threshold was surpassed for the first time in 2024, the hottest year ever recorded.
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