Polymarket bettors have cut the odds of the CLARITY Act passing this year to a record low as Senate negotiations over ethics provisions remain unresolved.
- Polymarket now gives the Clarity Act a 32% chance of passing by year-end, its lowest level since the market launched in January.
- Senate negotiations remain focused on winning Democratic support, with a bipartisan ethics provision emerging as the bill's biggest obstacle.
- Industry executives urged Congress to pass the legislation, arguing that clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore.
The odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year have fallen to their lowest level ever on crypto prediction market Polymarket, reflecting growing skepticism that Congress will pass the landmark crypto market structure legislation before the end of 2025.
As of Friday, traders gave the bill a 32% chance of passing by Dec. 31, 2026, down roughly 30 percentage points from when the market launched on Jan. 11. The odds climbed as high as 82% on Feb. 19 but have steadily declined since early May as the Senate's legislative calendar has narrowed and questions have mounted over whether lawmakers can assemble the bipartisan support needed to advance the bill.
The decline comes despite continued negotiations behind the scenes.
Earlier this month, lawmakers were working on an updated legislative text that was expected to be released the following week, though it had yet to win Democratic backing. President Donald Trump was expected to meet with Senate Republicans yesterday to discuss the bill.
The lack of an ethics provision remains one of the biggest sticking points. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of two Democrats who voted to advance the bill out of the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly said he will not support the legislation on the Senate floor without a bipartisan ethics provision. Other Democrats have raised similar concerns over conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets.
As of Friday, there had been no public readout from Thursday's White House meeting, and no bipartisan ethics language had emerged, leaving one of the bill's largest obstacles unresolved.
If passed, the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets by drawing a clearer line between assets regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and those overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Supporters argue the measure would replace years of regulation through enforcement with rules written by Congress.
Industry executives reiterated that message during a House hearing Friday marking one year since the chamber passed the legislation.
"The community has already done the hard work," Nova Labs executive Sarah Aberg told lawmakers, arguing that regulatory uncertainty delayed investment in the Helium wireless network after the SEC sued the company in a case that was later settled. "Clarity is not a call for deregulation; it is a call for the right regulation from the right regulator."
Bullish executive Randy Abernethy said companies need "a rule book" that brings digital asset markets under U.S. oversight rather than driving firms abroad. Bullish is CoinDesk’s corporate parent. WisdomTree's Ryan Louvar said legislation would create durable rules that survive changes in administrations, while Coin Center's Jason Sommensatto argued the bill protects software developers without weakening anti-money laundering or investor safeguards.
With Congress approaching its August recess and only a limited number of legislative weeks remaining afterward, traders appear increasingly doubtful the bill will reach the president's desk before the end of the year.
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CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Why it matters:
CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11T and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311B.
Facts Only
* Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act passing this year are 32%, the lowest level since the market launched in January.
* Senate negotiations focus on winning Democratic support, with a bipartisan ethics provision being the major obstacle.
* Industry executives argued that clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore.
* Traders gave the bill a 32% chance of passing by December 31, 2026, a decrease of approximately 30 percentage points from the market launch date.
* The odds reached 82% on February 19 but have declined since early May.
* Lawmakers were working on an updated legislative text that lacked Democratic backing.
* No bipartisan ethics language had emerged following a White House meeting.
* Supporters argue the Clarity Act would establish a federal framework for digital asset markets by setting clear lines between SEC and CFTC regulation.
Executive Summary
Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act passing this year have reached a record low of 32%, reflecting ongoing unresolved Senate negotiations regarding ethics provisions. The primary obstacle remains the lack of a bipartisan ethics provision, as some members, including specific Democrats, have indicated they will not support the bill without it. Industry executives are urging Congress to pass the legislation, arguing that clear jurisdiction for the SEC and CFTC would reduce regulatory uncertainty and onshore crypto activity.
The declining odds reflect growing skepticism about the timeline for passing landmark crypto market structure legislation before year-end. While some optimism existed, the legislative calendar has narrowed, leading to a consistent decline in probability as negotiations proceed behind the scenes without a clear consensus on key elements. Supporters of the Clarity Act contend that establishing federal rules would replace years of regulatory enforcement with clear congressional mandates, and industry leaders emphasize the need for clear oversight to foster development within the U.S.
Full Take
The narrative surrounding the Clarity Act illustrates a tension between industry demands for regulatory clarity and the political difficulty of achieving bipartisan consensus, specifically concerning ethics provisions. The sharp decline in market odds suggests that legislative momentum is stalling, moving from an optimistic outlook to one rooted in skepticism regarding Congress's ability to finalize necessary provisions before the end of the year. This pattern highlights how unresolved procedural sticking points—like ethics requirements—can act as significant friction points that derail broad legislative goals, regardless of the underlying substantive goals of the legislation.
The conflicting voices among industry executives demonstrate a dual objective: advocating for streamlined regulation to reduce uncertainty while also ensuring that regulatory action is aligned with specific outcomes (e.g., onshore activity). The debate underscores a structural challenge in complex, cross-sectoral legislation where different stakeholders prioritize different forms of "clarity." The underlying implication is that achieving large-scale structural change often requires bridging entrenched political divides, and when foundational elements like ethics are missing, the perceived probability shifts sharply downward.
What factors might accelerate bipartisan agreement on such legislation outside of immediate political maneuvering? What systemic changes in the legislative process would be required to ensure that specialized regulatory goals can supersede partisan deadlock in future efforts? Does focusing solely on the final passage ignore the slower, more complex work of building shared institutional frameworks for digital markets?
Sentinel — Human
This analysis presents a detailed update on a legislative process mixed with market sentiment, displaying characteristics consistent with human-sourced financial journalism.