Saudi-Backed Forces ROUTED in Yemen as Oil Surges and War Spirals

Twenty-five years after 9/11, the United States is again fighting a major war in the Middle East. Drop Site’s Ryan Grim and Murtaza Hussain speak with Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and a former senior adviser in the Obama administration, and Rob Malley, a senior fellow at Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs, former U.S. special envoy for Iran, longtime Middle East peace negotiator, and head of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group.
The conversation covers Ansarallah’s advance in Yemen, the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and the US duel strategies of economic pressure, the future of U.S. military bases in the Gulf, the collapse of the JCPOA, Iran’s nuclear calculations, and whether Washington has learned the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan and the broader post-9/11 wars.
0:00 Intro: Oil Tops $105, Saudi-Backed Forces Collapse in Yemen
2:35 How Ansarallah Swept Western Yemen, and Why Now
5:23 Vali Nasr: Iran Will Break Trump’s “New Normal” Before the Midterms
10:50 Can Trump Sustain a Low-Grade War for Two More Years?
17:05 Gulf Disillusionment, From the Iraq War to the JCPOA
20:45 Is American Protection in the Gulf Breaking Down?
23:17 The Gulf’s Two Failed Wagers: U.S. Bases and Détente With Iran
28:55 The Lessons of Losing Wars: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran
30:05 Who Warned Trump? A Broken Decision-Making Process
33:44 What Iran Would Accept to End the War
39:16 Why the 14-Point MOU Collapsed
42:53 Malley: Failed Wars Have Heavier Consequences
47:16 25 Years After 9/11: Has Washington Learned Anything?
52:22 Malley: Why Iran May Now Want a Bomb
54:45 Nuclear Debate Inside Iran
58:06 Is the U.S. Basing System in the Gulf Coming to an End?
1:03:23 Closing Thoughts and Book Recommendations

Facts Only

* The conversation features Ryan Grim, Murtaza Hussain, Vali Nasr, and Rob Malley.
* Topics discussed include Ansarallah’s advance in Yemen.
* The battle over the Strait of Hormuz was covered.
* Strategies for Iran and the US included economic pressure.
* The future of U.S. military bases in the Gulf was addressed.
* The collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was discussed.
* Iran’s nuclear calculations were examined.
* Lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, and post-9/11 wars were assessed.
* The status of American protection in the Gulf was evaluated.

Executive Summary

The discussion centers on the current state of conflict in the Middle East twenty-five years after 9/11, focusing on Iran's influence and US strategic positioning. The conversation involves experts discussing specific regional dynamics, including Ansarallah’s progress in Yemen, the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz, the economic strategies employed by Iran and the US, the future of US military presence in the Gulf, and the impact of major geopolitical shifts like the collapse of the JCPOA. Key themes include assessing whether Washington has learned from previous conflicts such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and the post-9/11 environment, examining the status of American protection in the Gulf, and evaluating the long-term consequences of failed diplomatic efforts and military engagements.

Full Take

The dialogue reveals a tension between strategic objectives and empirical outcomes across the post-9/11 geopolitical landscape. There is an underlying theme concerning the efficacy of established foreign policy tools—whether economic pressure, treaty adherence, or military basing arrangements—in achieving desired long-term stability. The comparison drawn between historical conflicts and the current situation suggests a recurring challenge for Washington: recognizing when institutional learning translates into actionable policy shifts. The analysis implicitly questions whether continued engagement or pressure yields predictable results, especially regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional power dynamics in Yemen. This framing highlights a systemic vulnerability where strategic goals appear to be continuously redefined by evolving local realities, forcing observers to question the coherence of long-term strategic planning when immediate security concerns remain paramount. What role does this pattern of reassessment play in shaping future international risk management? What are the unspoken assumptions about agency that underpin the discourse on learning from past failures?