Asia-Europe freighter capacity cut as ecommerce slump bites
Correction: Asia-Europe freighter capacity The Loadstar yesterday incorrectly reported that Asia Pacific-Europe freighter capacity had increased ...
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Global ecommerce air cargo growth has flattened this year following a surge in capacity and regulatory intervention, delegates at the EU CBEC ecommerce forum in Liege heard today.
Speaking at the forum, CEO of Rotate, Ryan Keyrouse, said ecommerce volumes had grown 23% since 2024 but were now flat.
“When we were here two years ago, ecommerce was showing a 41% growth year over year, if you fast forward, we are 23% absolute growth, but we are at 0% year over year growth.
“So the total ecommerce growth has indeed flattened in this year, but we’re still higher. So it depends on how you want to look at it. Ecommerce is slowing down, but it’s still one of the largest commodities with quite robust numbers,” he said.
Mr Keyrouse noted that political intervention has emerged as the biggest threat – something industry respondents had already identified as the leading risk two years ago in a Rotate survey.
“Politically marketed policies. That definitely happened,” he said, pointing to the recent de minimis measures introduced in Europe and the US.
Rotate highlighted the impact of the EU’s regulatory changes that became apparent in July, shorty after their introduction. That month witnessed 24% decline in ecommerce volumes, alongside a 28% fall in freighter capacity to Europe.
Mr Keyrouse illustrated that this is the equivalent of around 5,000 freighter flights a year having disappeared from the market.
He revelaed that these capacity reductions have been unevenly distributed, creating winners and losers among European gateways. EU ecommerce gateways such as Liège, Amsterdam and Budapest all suffered significant declines, with Budapest’s capacity falling by almost 60% between June and August.
“We didn’t really see that capacity out of China be redistributed elsewhere,” Mr Keyrouse commented.
Instead, the reduction has largely come through lower utilisation and the parking of older, converted freighters, particularly less fuel-efficient aircraft.
Rotate’s latest sentiment survey, based on more than 100 industry responses, found most respondents did not expect European ecommerce volumes to rebound immediately after the summer.
“The answer is not for another six months,” Mr Keyrouse said.
Others believe the market will settle into a permanent but stable decline, while only a minority expect an immediate recovery.
Any displaced ecommerce demand is nevertheless expected to find new markets, with respondents identifying Latin America and the Middle East and Africa as the most likely areas for future growth, although Southeast Asia and non-EU European markets also featured.
However, ecommerce is not the only major growth engine for air cargo. Technology and AI-related hardware have expanded rapidly, with cloud computing, computers and semiconductors driving demand.
Outside China, technology-related goods now account for 68% of Asia-Pacific exports, according to Rotate, reflecting the acceleration of the “China plus one” manufacturing strategy.
Overall, Rotate forecasts total air cargo demand will grow 3% over the next 12 months, broadly in line with projected capacity growth of 3.3%.
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Facts Only
* E-commerce volumes grew 23% since 2024 but are now flat year-over-year.
* Political intervention, such as de minimis measures in Europe and the US, is identified as a major threat to the industry.
* In July, e-commerce volumes declined by 24% following EU regulatory changes.
* Freighter capacity to Europe fell by 28% in July.
* Capacity reductions equate to approximately 5,000 freighter flights per year disappearing from the market.
* European e-commerce gateways like Liège, Amsterdam, and Budapest experienced significant declines in capacity.
* Budapest’s capacity fell by almost 60% between June and August.
* Capacity reductions resulted from lower utilization and parking of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft rather than redistribution from China.
* Most industry respondents did not expect European e-commerce volumes to rebound immediately after the summer.
* Respondents identified Latin America and the Middle East and Africa as potential future growth areas for displaced demand.
* Technology and AI-related hardware are growing rapidly outside of China, with technology goods accounting for 68% of Asia-Pacific exports.
* Total air cargo demand is forecasted to grow 3% over the next 12 months.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative presented frames the current stagnation in e-commerce growth as a direct consequence of external political forces and capacity constraints, shifting the focus from internal market dynamics to geopolitical risk and supply chain physical limitations. The pattern observed is the displacement mechanism: when demand slows or regulatory friction appears, physical assets (freighter capacity) are reallocated via efficiency measures rather than being seamlessly redirected by market forces alone. This implies that the true bottleneck shifts from consumer appetite to logistical infrastructure constraints, which are then exacerbated by policy.
The reliance on industry sentiment—the expectation of no immediate rebound—acts as a stabilizing anchor against alarmist predictions, yet it simultaneously creates an ambiguity regarding future recovery timelines. The emphasis on non-EU growth markets suggests a structural reality: market shifts create new pathways, but the speed of this adaptation is constrained by established infrastructure and political realities. A key tension exists between the abstract concept of "robust numbers" in e-commerce and the tangible, measurable decline in physical air freight capacity caused by mandated or practical operational changes. The implied cost structure remains unevenly distributed across different geographical hubs, suggesting that systemic stability requires more than just volume growth; it demands resilient, adaptable infrastructure capable of absorbing political shocks without immediate, total collapse.
Bridge questions: If demand for e-commerce remains structurally high, what mechanisms would be required to decouple air cargo capacity from short-term political volatility? How do established logistics networks account for the uneven distribution of capacity losses among European gateways versus alternative emerging markets? What long-term relationship exists between technological growth outside of China and the physical allocation of freight routes?
Sentinel — Human
The article reads as a synthesized report based on expert commentary from an industry forum, demonstrating a strong foundation in context-specific data rather than purely abstract generation.