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Vance Wins CPAC Straw Poll, but Rubio Gains Steam Among MAGA Faithful
Conference organizers presented the poll results as a rebuttal to narratives that Republicans were split over the Iran war and support for Israel.
Vice President JD Vance won this year’s straw poll of attendees at the Conservative Political Action Conference, with 53 percent of respondents saying he was their preferred choice in the 2028 Republican presidential primary.
The figure, announced by organizers on Saturday, was a slight drop from his 61 percent support in last year’s poll, and it came as Secretary of State Marco Rubio continued to emerge as a contender in early 2028 conversations. Mr. Rubio earned 35 percent of the vote at CPAC this year, a leap from his 3 percent in 2025.
The poll, which came as CPAC wrapped up its annual four-day conference featuring a deeply conservative grass-roots crowd, is unscientific and has not historically been a strong predictor of whom Republican voters will ultimately back in a contested primary.
President Trump easily won three straw polls in the years preceding his comeback victory in 2024. But Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky won the CPAC poll in three consecutive years ahead of the 2016 primary, then went on to drop out early in that campaign. And former Senator Mitt Romney of Utah won straw polls in 2007 and 2008 over the eventual nominee that election cycle, former Senator John McCain of Arizona. Mr. Romney won two straw polls in the lead-up to his successful primary bid in 2012, but lost two to former Representative Ron Paul, Rand Paul’s father.
No other candidate on Saturday received more than 2 percent of support from the more than 1,600 respondents, which organizers at CPAC said was a record for a nonpresidential year.
These were the results for the rest of the field:
Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida: 2 percent
Donald Trump Jr.: 2 percent
Senator Ted Cruz of Texas: 1 percent
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth: 1 percent
Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas: 1 percent
Representative Rand Paul of Kentucky: 1 percent
Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence: 1 percent
On a day when several speakers supportive of the Iran war took the stage, including Mr. Cruz and Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the last shah of Iran, CPAC leaders presented the results of their poll as a rebuttal to narratives that the MAGA movement was divided over the war and support for Israel.
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Facts Only
JD Vance won the 2028 CPAC straw poll with 53% of the vote.
Marco Rubio received 35% of the vote, up from 3% in 2025.
The poll included over 1,600 respondents, a record for a nonpresidential year.
No other candidate received more than 2% support.
The poll was conducted at the annual four-day CPAC conference.
CPAC organizers presented the results as a rebuttal to claims of division within the MAGA movement over the Iran war and Israel.
Speakers at the event included Senator Ted Cruz and Reza Pahlavi, who expressed support for the Iran war.
Historically, CPAC straw polls have not consistently predicted primary outcomes.
Past winners include Rand Paul (2013–2015) and Mitt Romney (2007–2008, 2011–2012).
Donald Trump won three CPAC straw polls before his 2024 victory.
Other candidates in the 2028 poll included Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump Jr., Ted Cruz, Pete Hegseth, Greg Abbott, Rand Paul, and Tulsi Gabbard, all with 1–2% support.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The CPAC straw poll results present a narrative of unity within the MAGA movement, with JD Vance maintaining a strong lead despite a slight dip in support. The organizers' framing of the poll as a rebuttal to claims of division over the Iran war and Israel is a strategic move to project cohesion, particularly as the conference featured pro-war speakers. This aligns with a pattern of using internal polling to counter external critiques, a tactic that leverages perceived grassroots support to bolster credibility.
However, the historical unpredictability of CPAC straw polls suggests caution in interpreting these results as definitive. The dramatic rise of Marco Rubio, from 3% to 35%, could indicate shifting dynamics within the conservative base or simply reflect the early, fluid nature of the 2028 race. The minimal support for other candidates, including established figures like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr., raises questions about the depth of the field and whether this poll captures genuine sentiment or merely the enthusiasm of a specific, highly engaged subset of voters.
The broader implication is the ongoing struggle within the Republican Party to define its post-Trump identity. The emphasis on the Iran war and Israel as unifying issues may obscure deeper fissures or evolving priorities among conservatives. The poll's unscientific nature and the conference's ideological leanings further complicate its utility as a predictive tool.
**Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (using unscientific polling to project certainty), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (presenting straw poll as proof of unity while ignoring its limitations)**
**Bridge questions:**
How might the early polling dynamics shift as the 2028 primary approaches and more candidates enter the race?
What role does the Iran war and Israel play in shaping conservative priorities, and is this emphasis sustainable?
If CPAC straw polls have historically been unreliable, what other indicators might better reflect the Republican base's preferences?
**Counterstrike scan:** A coordinated influence campaign would likely amplify the poll's results to create a false consensus, downplaying its unscientific nature and framing it as definitive proof of MAGA unity. The actual content does not fully match this pattern, as it acknowledges the poll's limitations and historical unpredictability, though it still leans into the organizers' narrative of cohesion.