Gold prices posted impressive weekly gains last week, fostering hope for better things for the commodity in the second half of 2026, following a trying first half of the year. Of course, a more substantive rally will benefit ETFs such as the WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Equity Strategy Fund (GDE). The actively managed ETF combines exposure to gold futures and large-cap domestic stocks. As some experts point out, bullion could be primed for a bounce, potentially benefiting GDE along the way, because markets may have mispriced the extent to which the Federal Reserve can be hawkish this year.
A prime example of that mispricing may well be the June jobs report, out last week. It wasn’t terrible, but it wasn’t as strong as expected, indicating that the Fed may do well to consider lowering borrowing costs. At a minimum, a slow jobs market makes it difficult for the central bank to consider tightening, which would pinch gold prices.
Fed Flexibility Could Boost GDE
When interest rates are high, gold suffers because bonds look more attractive by comparison. Perhaps to the delight of GDE investors, that situation could change for the better in the second half.
“I think markets have fundamentally mispriced the Fed’s next move,” said deVere Group CEO Nigel Green. “The consensus view has become dangerously one-dimensional. “Investors have spent months pricing for a world of persistently high rates, a strong dollar and continued economic resilience. The risk now is that this entire framework begins to unravel.”
As Green noted, Fed rate hikes represent a “crowded trade” and history suggests crowded trades don’t always end well. However, disappointment on the rate hike could stir upside for gold and ETFs such as GDE.
“If economic data continues to soften, investors won’t just be repricing the probability of another rate hike. They’ll start repricing the entire trajectory of monetary policy over the next 12 to 18 months,” observed the deVere CEO. “There’s a legitimate question to be asked about whether markets have been looking in the wrong direction altogether.”
Bottom line: If rate hike questions perk up, GDE could prove to be one of the answers.
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