Moananuiākea Voyage | July 2026 Sail Plan Update
The Polynesian Voyaging Society today announced a revised schedule for the Western Pacific portion of the Moananuiākea Voyage in response to confirmed elevated weather risks caused by El Niño and our changing climate. The revision will add one year to the Moananuiākea Voyage.
With help from data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), PVS has been conducting extensive research and tracking the progression of El Niño. The latest report issued in early July by NOAA’s National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through Spring 2027, an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in October – December 2026 and a very high probability that it would rank among the strongest El Niño events in 75 years, all increasing the likelihood and risk of dangerous weather and sailing conditions across the Western North Pacific.
PVS CEO and Pwo Navigator Nainoa Thompson spoke with the Climate Prediction Center forecasters and reports they said “The winds are not going to be in your favor. The risk of typhoons is going to be very high, and the heat that’s coming out of the ocean is going to create convection, convection creates thunderstorms, thunderstorms create lightning.” Thompson said “So there is a whole menu and safety checklist we look at in terms of determining where we go.”
The sail plan was for the voyaging canoes Hōkūleʻa and Hikianalia to sail as far north as Hokkaido, Japan in 2027. But, to ensure the safety of its crew, PVS leadership has decided to keep the canoes in the southern hemisphere of the Pacific Ocean, and then proceed to Northeast Asia in 2028. The canoes have been in Aotearoa (New Zealand) since November 2025.
“Nature is telling us what to do. We go when nature allows us to go, when nature gives us permission to go. And I do think our ability to be sailing for 50 years was being disciplined to that,” said Thompson. “So I don’t see it as postponement. I don’t see it as delay. I see it as being respectful, paying attention, being humble with nature, especially now when the weather is what I would characterize as extreme,” he added.
Over the next 17 months, the canoes will visit Fiji (October 2026) to participate in the Pre-COP international ocean and climate meetings, which precede the annual UN Climate Change Conference (COP), then make return visits to Aotearoa, the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. Additional planned stops in 2027 will include American Sāmoa, Sāmoa, Tonga, the region of Melanesia and Micronesia.
This shift in timing is not a pause in the voyage. Rather, it provides meaningful opportunities for deeper cultural exchange, expanded education outreach, and collective climate action with communities and institutions across the Pacific that are preparing for Hōkūleʻa and Hikianaliaʻs arrival.
In early 2028, the canoes will depart Micronesia and head to the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.
The revised sail plan remains pending and will continue to be refined as NOAA climate outlooks, regional weather forecasts, and ocean conditions evolve. As navigators have done for generations, every major voyage decision will continue to be guided by careful observation of nature and the safety of the crews and canoes.
“Nothing is normal anymore,” said Thompson. “El Niño, coupled with climate change and oceans saturated with heat and carbon, is creating weather patterns that are increasingly unpredictable and more dangerous for traditional voyaging. For these reasons we must continue adjusting our sail plan based on what nature allows us to do. We truly appreciate the understanding and flexibility of all of our host islands and communities. Our responsibility has always been to protect our crews and our canoes,” Thompson said. “Traditional voyaging teaches us to observe, to listen, and to remain humble before nature. We don’t force the schedule, we voyage when the ocean tells us it is safe.”
2026
SAIL FROM AOTEAROA TO FIJI AND OTHER ISLANDS
Mid-September to Early October
STOPS IN FIJI AND OTHER ISLANDS
Late September to Mid-October
Pre-COP Meeting in Fiji – October 5-8, 2026
SAIL FROM FIJI TO AOTEAROA
Mid October to November 10
CIRCUMNAVIGATION OF AOTEAROA’S NORTH AND SOUTH ISLANDS
December 2026 to February 2027
2027
CONTINUE CIRCUMNAVIGATION OF AOTEAROA’S NORTH AND SOUTH ISLANDS
January to February 2027
DRYDOCK IN AOTEAROA
February to April 2027
SAIL FROM AOTEAROA TO COOK ISLANDS
Estimated departure: Late April 2027
SAIL THROUGH POLYNESIAN REGION (Including Cook Islands, French Polynesia, American Sāmoa, Sāmoa, Tonga, and other islands)
May to September 2027
STOPS IN MELANESIA
October to early November 2027
STOPS IN MICRONESIA
Early November 2027 to Early January 2028
2028
PALAU, MICRONESIA
January 2028
PHILIPPINES
February 2028
TAIWAN
March 2028
JAPAN & SOUTH KOREA
April to August 2028
Facts Only
* The Polynesian Voyaging Society revised the schedule for the Western Pacific portion of the Moananuiākea Voyage.
* The revision adds one year to the Moananuiākea Voyage.
* NOAA data was used in research tracking El Niño progression.
* A forecast indicates a 97% probability that El Niño conditions will continue through Spring 2027.
* There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño in October–December 2026, which could rank among the strongest in 75 years.
* PVS leadership decided to keep the canoes in the Southern Hemisphere of the Pacific Ocean before proceeding to Northeast Asia in 2028.
* The canoes have been in Aotearoa (New Zealand) since November 2025.
* Canoes will visit Fiji in October 2026 for Pre-COP international ocean and climate meetings.
* Planned stops include return visits to Aotearoa, the Cook Islands, French Polynesia, American Samoa, Tonga, Melanesia, and Micronesia in 2027.
* The canoes will depart Micronesia in early 2028 for the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.
* The revised sail plan is pending refinement based on evolving NOAA forecasts and ocean conditions.
Executive Summary
The Polynesian Voyaging Society revised the schedule for the Western Pacific portion of the Moananuiākea Voyage due to elevated weather risks associated with El Niño and climate change. This revision extends the voyage by one year. Research tracking El Niño progression, supported by NOAA data, forecasts a high probability of continued El Niño conditions through Spring 2027 and a strong possibility of a very strong event in October-December 2026, increasing the risk of dangerous weather.
The proposed sail plan for the voyaging canoes Hōkūleʻa and Hikianalia to reach Hokkaido, Japan in 2027 was adjusted for crew safety. Leadership decided to keep the canoes in the Southern Hemisphere of the Pacific Ocean before proceeding to Northeast Asia in 2028, having been in Aotearoa (New Zealand) since November 2025.
The revised itinerary involves visits to Fiji in October 2026 for international ocean and climate meetings preceding the UN Climate Change Conference (COP). Subsequent stops include return visits to Aotearoa, the Cook Islands, and French Polynesia, as well as planned stops in American Samoa, Tonga, Melanesia, and Micronesia in 2027. The voyage is scheduled to depart Micronesia in early 2028 and head to the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea.
Full Take
The adjustment of the voyage timeline reflects a shift from an aspirational schedule to one prioritizing physical and environmental safety, framed through a perspective rooted in respect for natural systems. The core tension lies between the pursuit of a specific navigational goal and the acknowledgment of unpredictable environmental forces—specifically El Niño and broader climate change impacts on weather patterns. The decision to postpone the journey is presented not as failure or delay, but as an act of deference, aligning the voyaging process with observed ecological reality rather than imposing a fixed timeline.
The narrative structure subtly reframes the voyage from a linear achievement to an iterative process dependent on real-time observation and humility toward nature. The explicit emphasis on listening to nature and adjusting plans underscores a fundamental divergence from traditional goal-oriented planning, suggesting that true navigation in the face of systemic instability requires relinquishing control over the schedule. This invokes a pattern where resilience is demonstrated by adapting to uncontrollable variables rather than rigidly adhering to predetermined outcomes.
This process implicates a larger system: the relationship between human endeavor and the climate. The inclusion of cultural exchange and climate action meetings during the revised itinerary suggests that the voyage functions not merely as transport, but as a platform for addressing existential environmental concerns within the Pacific community. The authority cited—the navigators' generational wisdom—is leveraged to justify this adaptive approach, positioning traditional knowledge as superior in navigating contemporary uncertainty. Further inquiry should focus on how these flexible timelines influence institutional capacity for collective climate action across the broader Pacific stakeholder groups.
Sentinel — Human
The text reads as a synthesis of official scientific data and personal/organizational philosophy regarding navigation, indicating strong human editorial oversight.