The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) recently submitted information on supplemental spending needs to Congress. Rather than a detailed budget amendment, the letter outlines, in general terms, financial shortfalls in 11 agencies resulting from unforeseen costs. It should be a useful reference to help congressional budgeteers update and package appropriations bills and navigate tough political waters in obtaining the votes to pass legislation in the near term.
While the budget numbers may be somewhat vague and the policies they support could make the politics problematic, the stakes are clear for the nation’s military and national security. The operations and maintenance accounts that fund military training, readiness, and day-to-day flying, steaming, and subsistence are running out, while stockpiles of offensive and defensive weapons need quick replenishment.
Our latest estimate for Operation Epic Fury is $38.6 billion. Table 1 shows the cost drivers by category, along with an estimate for Operation Southern Spear and a lump-sum amount for repair of bases and facilities in the Middle East.
To lend clarity to the projected budget shortfalls, Table 2 shows the above categories, consistent with the breakout for defense requirements listed in the OMB letter. The key differences are classified, cybersecurity and autonomy, and some operational costs which are part of the official estimate but not reflected in our cost capture.
As the Pentagon finishes its midyear spending review and notifies Congress of changes among accounts, there are only tough choices to cover operational costs until action is taken on a supplemental. The sources available to continue cash-flowing operations are already reportedly impacting training plans and will hit facilities maintenance as well. After that, the research and procurement accounts, which fund the modernization and capacity of the military, will again be at risk.
A just-released report warns that part of that research infrastructure is already deteriorating. It claims that: “Authorized major military construction (MILCON) projects for modernization of critical joint-mission RDT&E infrastructure continually slip due to the services’ reprioritizing of scarce MILCON funds toward other operationally relevant priorities.”
As noted recently, whether one agrees or disagrees with the military actions in Iran or the increased military presence both on the border and in the Southern Hemisphere, our military leaders have told us that they are having trouble training our forces. The preventable consequences of delayed and insufficient funding are everywhere. From an industrial base and supply chain that are just starting to recover momentum toward the capacity, resilience, and scope the nation needs, to the struggling state of military housing, to deadly military accidents, evidence of how disrupted and unpredictable funding hurts American forces should not be dismissed in favor of political disagreements.
The biggest threat our military faces right now is time. Year-over-year delayed and uncertain budgets take an immediate and cumulative toll as both money and time are wasted. While an estimate of losses during last fall’s historic government-wide shutdown would definitely be counted in the billions, it was only one year in decades of continuing resolutions that stall programs, raise costs, hurt modernization, and spread uncertainty to everyone who works for the military. After the shutdown concluded, the military continued to wait another 83 days for annual funding, time that cost the taxpayer an estimated $20 million per day in lost buying power earlier this year.
The penalties the Pentagon pays from uncertain budgets are sometimes not immediately visible, but they show up—in training accidents, lost competitiveness, industrial base capacity shortfalls, supply chain vulnerabilities, and, eventually, in damage to America’s economy, security, and safety.
To stop this trend, Congress must immediately pass two defense-related budget requests, regardless of how they are packaged to obtain the necessary votes. The pending actions—the supplemental and the 2027 budget request which is currently financed in a base and a reconciliation proposal—are both necessary to fund the three main components of the armed forces. Whether we call them people, equipment, and operations or capacity, capability, and readiness, we need all three to build, maintain, and operate a military with the reach, effectiveness, and proficiency a global power like the United States demands and expects.
For too long, the military has been forced to sacrifice at least one of these main categories for the other two, costing America money, time, and competitiveness over time. It is past time to end such self-inflicted damage. Ideally, this would be done through what is known as regular order, meaning individual appropriations bills developed, debated, and passed in a bipartisan way. If that is no longer possible, as years of continuing resolutions and shutdowns have shown, Congress should act through reconciliation if necessary, packaging and passing full defense supplemental and 2027 funding before going home for elections this fall.