'Off the Charts' El Nino Is Already the Strongest Since Records Began 33
A rapidly developing El Nino is already reaching record-setting levels for this time of year and is expected to intensify further over the coming months. "The El Nino has blossomed. It is off the charts. Usual measures of El Nino have blown past prior record levels in the period with good data, even though maximum effects are still several months in the future," writes renowned climate scientist James Hansen at Columbia University in New York in a newsletter sent today. Climate scientists disagree over whether it has already surpassed previous "super El Nino" events on every metric, but several say the signal is unprecedented in forecasts and could ultimately become the strongest modern event on record. New Scientist reports: There are different ways of measuring El Ninos, which occur when warm surface waters spread eastwards along the equator across the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Hansen thinks the best measure is how much warmer than usual the upper 300 meters of the eastern tropical Pacific becomes. "Our preferred metric, the heat anomaly in the upper 300 meters of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean... already exceeds the 1997-98 super El Nino," he writes.
[...] What's clear is that this developing super El Nino will soon exceed previous events on all measures. "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts," [Adam Scaife at the Met Office, the UK's national weather service] said in a statement released today. "If the forecast is accurate... then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences."
While Hansen is comparing the developing super El Nino to other modern events for which we have direct temperature records, Hayley Fowler at Newcastle University in the UK thinks it could also exceed historical events suspected to be even larger. "The super El Nino evolving in the Pacific will likely be the biggest ever recorded, reaching or exceeding the levels of the 1877-1878 El Nino which caused widespread impacts, including famines and around 50 million deaths (3-4 percent of the global population at the time), mostly across Asia and South America," Fowler said in a statement.
[...] What's clear is that this developing super El Nino will soon exceed previous events on all measures. "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts," [Adam Scaife at the Met Office, the UK's national weather service] said in a statement released today. "If the forecast is accurate... then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences."
While Hansen is comparing the developing super El Nino to other modern events for which we have direct temperature records, Hayley Fowler at Newcastle University in the UK thinks it could also exceed historical events suspected to be even larger. "The super El Nino evolving in the Pacific will likely be the biggest ever recorded, reaching or exceeding the levels of the 1877-1878 El Nino which caused widespread impacts, including famines and around 50 million deaths (3-4 percent of the global population at the time), mostly across Asia and South America," Fowler said in a statement.
Damn (Score:2)
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50 million deaths when people were less prepared or know what to do.
We know better now. Stay hydrated, seek shelter when needed.
And many people have access to aircon/fans/showers, either at home, at work, at shopping malls, etc.
Bikini Season (Score:1, Troll)
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That is "la Nina". You must be from la Presidenta's alleged administration. Care to put your money where your mouth has been and load up on parka manufacturer's stock?
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The climate is going extreme (Score:2)
yet people still claim (and some maybe even believe) that climate change is a hoax. Do something before it is too late. I used to think that it would affect my grandkids, not me (I am 71), but I am now not so sure - this Summer has been hot!
Re: The climate is going extreme (Score:2)
Re: The climate is going extreme (Score:2)
Holy scientific ignorance and ethics failure Batman!
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And you think the fact that carbon dioxide has steadily increased over the past 150 years or as we pump a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is a coincidence? You honestly believe that there is zero connection between pumping gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and there being gigatons more carbon dioxide in the air than pre-industrial times? Completely unrelated events?
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The hubris of those who think we can regulate the climate never ceases to amaze me.
This is what the other cave man said the first time he saw somebody build a house.
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"Houses" probably predate homo sapiens. They my just have looked like lean-tos, but they did the same job, just not as well. And if you demand mortared foundations, they didn't show up until the very late stone age.
The thing is, when you're mobile rather than settled, a house is a very temporary asset. And they have defects as places that house lice, fleas, etc. So you usually prefer to keep moving. Agriculture is what probably caused what we think of as houses to be created, but the first "permanent"
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Some people actually want the climate to heat up, for their personal comfort. I've also seen arguments that increased CO2 helps plants grow. People are amazingly good at rationalizing whatever behavior they like, including attempts to use its negative consequences as justification.
A crushing lack of empathy, is the most dangerous behavioral trait that has ever emerged from a new generation of humans.
A young single never-married childless person, cannot grasp the love a mother or father has for a child. I get that lack of empathy based on lack of life experience. Seen it plenty of times. But a good person can still have a basic level of empathy.
GenMeMeMe can be found to be quite different. Zero sympathy. Zero empathy. I can’t even say remorse or regret has increased as a r
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In case you have not noticed, the two things most people excel at is stupidity and denial.
And many people believe .... (Score:3)
... that an all powerful sky fairy spoke to some peasents thousands of years ago and "revealed" the truth to them while other believe the earth is only 4000 years ago and others than its flat.
You can't fix stupid.
At this point the people who believe anthropogenic climate change is a hoax/conspiracy won't change their minds no matter what anyone says or what evidence their own eyes give them. Just ignore them and move on.
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You must be American, you think 100 years is a long time
Meanwhile corporate climate guidance... (Score:2)
And Signatures (Score:2)
...don't use "reply all" on email as it uses more energy.
Also, the long signatures and disclaimers on every email pumps out more carbon.
Do your part, trim your signatures. Save The World.
Gotta love stories like this (Score:3, Insightful)
The word 'El Nino' was mentioned 10 times and the word 'Super El Nino' twice. Yet nowhere does it bother to mention what this means. What effects? How long? Who might be affected?
Yes, there is this thing called 'the internet' that I'm told can be used to look up information (or watch cat videos), but if you're trying to disperse information, it might be nice to include said information so people can better understand the point you are trying (and failing) to get across.
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Where I live, El Nino is in the news every few years for at least the past 40+ years. For as long as I can remember.
In our local climate it produces strong westerly winds which creates a severe drying period because all the rain falls on the other (western) side of the mountains.
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Climate visualization (Score:5, Informative)
I've been working on a climate dashboard with daily-updated sea & surface temps on a 3d globe as well as various regional trend graphs, at https://globe-viz.oberbrunner [globe-viz....runner.com] The Nino 3.4 region's sea surface temp has been in daily-record territory since June 1, and it's likely to reach an all-time record soon. Most ocean temps are well into record or near-record territory, and some local areas like the sea of Japan are over 6C above their long-term averages.
Sell me Reality, not Hype. (Score:2)
There are different ways of measuring El Niños..
..and I’m certain we chose the one that won’t give us THE most alarming model that likely qualifies as an outlier in any other equation, in order to sell more hypes, clicks, and insurance premiums that got auto-adjusted based on hypes and clicks, right?
Right?
I’m not denying a hotter summer. Or the potential for extreme weather. I’m questioning the hype and bullshit cheerleading squad in every marketing department that gets paid in clicks now. The weather industry is one of those u
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Exactly.
Last fall the weather people promised a cold and wet winter for the Pacific Northwest. It was neither.
So we'll see how they did next spring.
One thing that I have not seen considered is that if the climate has shifted then the models built on the past behavior will be invalid.