A series of well-timed market bets on falling oil prices totalling as much as $7 billion during March and April spread across multiple exchanges and types of fuel and derivatives just before major Iranian policy announcements by US President Donald Trump, according to traders, market experts and Reuters analysis of exchange data.
The size exceeds previously reported bets amounting to $2.6 billion,...
The narrative presents a compelling case of suspicious market activity, with well-timed trades preceding geopolitical announcements that moved oil prices. The strongest version of this story—supported by the data—is that someone with advance knowledge of U.S. policy shifts on Iran exploited that information for massive financial gain. The pattern of trades across multiple contracts and exchanges suggests coordination rather than coincidence, and the scale ($7 billion) implies institutional or hi...