Fall calf run is just around the corner, but cattle markets are sending mixed signals as producers head into one of the busiest marketing periods of the year.
Anne Wasko of Gateway Livestock Exchange says the short holiday week made for relatively quiet fed cattle trade on both sides of the border. In Western Canada, bids and sales were coming in around $4.85 to $4.95 delivered dressed, compared to an average of $4.95 the previous week.
“It was kind of just a typical slow week in September. I wish it was more exciting, but it’s not,” says Wasko.
The bigger question may be where calf and yearling prices settle heading into the fall run. Forward-priced cattle have already backed away from highs established earlier this summer, while futures markets are also pointing lower, says Wasko. February 2027 live cattle futures were about US$20 per hundredweight below their June highs, while November feeder cattle futures were about US$40 off their highs.
At the same time, feed costs have moved higher, adding another piece to the equation.
There is, however, some support coming from available feed and feedlot capacity in Western Canada. New Statistics Canada data shows 35,000 U.S. feeder cattle moved north in July, up 61 per cent from July 2025. Through the first seven months of 2026, imports reached 266,000 head, up 33 per cent year-over-year.
Wasko says ample feed supplies and available feedlot capacity could help support upcoming cattle sales, even as futures point toward lower prices in 2027.
“You’ve got two sides of the coin. The futures saying it’s lower, but the fact of the matter is we’ve got lots of pen space, lots of feed—which one’s going to win will be the question.”
With major video sales in the coming days and harvest influencing feed costs, the next few weeks should offer a clearer picture of pricing as the fall run gets underway.
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It's now time for our biweekly Beef Market Update with Anne Wasko of Gateway Livestock Exchange. And Anne, we were just reminiscing. It's been— I don't get to host the radio show that often. And so it's been a while since you and I got to record the Beef Market Update. It's not quite a decade, but it's been a while. How are things in your part of Saskatchewan today?
Well, things are good, a little cooler here. We're okay on the ranch in terms of— I know the combines have really been slowed down this week, but in terms of ranch conditions, it's good weather to get lots of stuff done physically in the southwest. Where I'm at, we haven't received as much moisture as what I'm hearing, you know, east and even north of us. But it's— fall is in the air, which means fall calf run ain't far away.
What kind of shape is the grass in there? Is it still quite dry?
Yeah, very dry. You know, again, depending on if you got some of this last moisture, you might be in certainly talking about better shape, but it was so dry through July and August and so hot through, through August as well, July and August, that, you know, that's really what put the crimper on things, I think, even talking about crops or grass, right?
Certainly, yeah. Labour Day was this week. It feels like it was longer ago than just 4 days ago, but this was a holiday week. What did we see in, in the markets this week?
Yeah, so often, Calvin, on these short weeks, things get a little quieter, and that certainly was the case on the fat cattle market in both countries. US markets still are not traded at the time that we're talking. The bids that are coming out of the packers are around $220 US and the asks from the feedlots around $225. Last week, just for reference, the market was $222. So obviously feedlots are going to try to get what they got last week. So we'll see where it ends up, but we're not going to be far off the mark. The cutout, that choice cutout last night, the beef market that we talked about, or talk about. It did close, or compared to a week ago, it did close $1.50 higher, $378.35. Again, on a short week with smaller beef kills, that's not a big surprise. That's kind of supportive to the market. The select product was $26 back, and that's kind of where it's been sitting. So smaller holiday kill, but some things changing as we go out of this week. We get back to full weeks, full kills, and now Fort Morgan, that Cargill plant in Fort Morgan, Colorado, is back into operation. So that'll get ramped up and putting more beef in front of us. And September is a slow month for beef demand historically, even a decade ago when we last talked that, you know, that's kind of a typical seasonal—
Yeah.
That, that is what September is, you know, families are going back to school, they've especially this year got lots of extra costs. And so, so beef demand often, often is a little bit sluggish and slow in September. So No big surprise on that front. And just to finish on the Fed markets here in the West, also lightly tested, but it does look like the bids and sales coming in around that $4.85 to $4.95 delivered dressed. Last week the trade averaged $4.95, so the average that's going to come out of Canfax this week looks like it will be lower. The question is, is it $1, $2, $2 or $3 lower? We'll wait and see on that one. So Kind of just a typical slow week in September. I wish it was more exciting, but it's not.
Okay, we— you mentioned we have some big video sales coming up that could kind of set direction for fall calf run.
Yeah, we've, we've, we've seen, you know, coming out of the regular video sales that happen each week, we've seen a little bit of a lower trend from the highs that were placed back in June. And this is for fall-priced yearlings and calves. This weekend, there's, there's a big sale coming up actually today and tomorrow. Lots of both yearlings and calves going to be offered on that, and kind of that'll be a big enough volume that we'll be really testing, testing the price points, if you will. We've seen a lower trend, as I mentioned, for pretty obvious reasons. The live cattle futures in Chicago, we've talked about that, Shaun and I, over the last while. But take February live cattle next year, 2027.
Yeah.
As an example, they're, you know, $20 a hundred US off their highs in June. And, and, you know, kind of all the markets that way. The feeder cattle market for this November on futures is $40 off their highs back in June. So the markets are sensing, you know, some of the news we've seen over the last little while, which is plant closures, you know, the reopening of the Mexican border, this extra lean trim that's coming, um, from, from South America. over the next 3 months. So the markets have responded to that. At the same time, we've seen corn move higher, and you guys have talked a lot about what's going on with— on the grain side and the volatility that's around that. But, you know, for an example, for somebody listening, you know, you go back to the highs earlier in June, for example, $4.40— or the lows, $4.40 a bushel, and they did get up on Dec corn to $5.40. It's $5.25 today, but You know, that's a pretty big move in terms of feed costs. So the market's trying to figure out all of those pieces and putting it together. So that's, that's going to be the test. As we, as we watch these forward price calves, we're starting to get back to levels that are maybe a little closer to last fall, it would be, would be my estimation.
Yeah, closer, closer to last fall and off of those highs back in June, earlier in summer.
Exactly.
Exactly.
Okay.
What about feeder imports into Canada? Was there new StatsCan July data this week?
Yes. Yeah, exactly. So we continue to talk about this simply because, again, as we are in the midst of this trade war, we continue to see lots of US feeder cattle making their way. Now, this is July data, so just keep that in mind. But we saw 35,000 head move north in July, mostly into Western Canada. That's up 61% from last July. So in the first 7 months of this year, we're now sitting at 266,000 head of imports, feeder imports to be specific. That's up 33% from last year. Or how many head is that? 67,000 head more than this time or 7 months in last year. So we've got, you know, growing feedlot capacity on both sides of the border. We've got more feedlot capacity than we do tight supply of feeder cattle. And that's what's, you know, been driving a lot of this. We've got some pretty big silage piles out there in Western Canada, so lots of feed, and the pen space for at this point in time is sure supporting the fact and could continue to really support these feeder, these video sales that we're going to see over the next little while. You know, so you've got 2 sides of the coin. The future's saying it's lower next year, and the fact of the matter is we've got lots of pen space, lots of feed. Which one's going to win will be the question.
Yeah, and to reiterate your point about, as we're in the middle of this trade battle, and again this week more discussion and everybody trying to figure out where we're at, another reminder of how integrated this beef industry is in Canada and the US.
100%. So, you know, those are the things driving, and every month it's a different thing driving the direction of, you know, feeder cattle moving north, or in this case, There's less fat cattle moving south than we would have seen a year ago. We're down about 25% on our fat cattle exports. So every, every month is a different driver in terms of, of where product moves or where live cattle move. And this data is a classic example.
You mentioned the Mexican border reopening. How significant an impact has that had on American supplies?
Well, you know, it's obviously it's been a very— it's a slow phased reopening. We only still have the one border crossing in in Douglas, Arizona, that's open. We expect to see a couple more open in New Mexico as we go forward. So it's still small, but markets are markets, Calvin. And of course, they know there's more coming in 2027. And so that's what's pegged into the futures market. So it sounds like business has gone as usual. I haven't got the actual daily data in front of me, but it's gone as expected, I think would be a good way to put it. And so that's why I think we can anticipate those New Mexico border crossings to open at some point this fall.
Is that, Anne, is that— sure, it means there's more competition in the American market, but does that mean slaughter plants and capacity remains viable if that Mexican market is also part of the U.S. market?
Yeah, so of course one of the key things back at the beginning of that border closure between the U.S. and Mexico was That Tyson plant in Amarillo closed one of their shifts. So argument is, is that we go forward and more cattle get back on feed back in that, in the southern feeding regions of the US, that there, you know, there's that possibility of that second shift coming back on stream. I think you'd have to see margins remain really solid for the packer to make that decision. But there is that capacity to reopen that was shut when the border was closed. So You know, again, we've had feedlots in the South close because of that lack of Mexican supply over the past year and a half. You know, is that capacity that comes back on stream? So lots of variables when you start opening and closing borders and that kind of impact of supply of, you know, in this case, over 1 million head annually that typically used to come from Mexico into the US. So it's a big, it's a big piece that the market's factoring in right now.
Yeah. Looking ahead then, as we, as we wrap up here, Anne, what, what's on your radar in the, in the next week or two here when it comes to cattle markets. Of course, you mentioned the big sales happening this weekend.
Yeah, yeah, for sure. We're going to be watching, you know, that futures market is a key part of what are the expectations for '27. So it's watching that cost of gain. So it's watching us how things look as we go through harvest. And as we get further into, you know, into starting that corn harvest. So those would be classic examples. And, you know, here, here at home, just you know, keeping an eye on, you know, the cattle on feed numbers. And we know there's more cattle on feed, they've been staying on feed longer, the economics are driving that. And so what kind of pen space is opening up as we get into the heat of the run? So it's going to get busy over the next few months, as it always does. It's always an exciting time for the market and for cow-calf operators. In a lot of cases, it's their annual marketing date.
Yeah, well, Thanks again for your time today, Anne, and hopefully it's not an almost 10-year break before our next chat here.
I hope so too. Yeah, you take care, Calvin. Have a good weekend.
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