Physical inactivity: another casualty of climate change
Affiliations & Notes
aSydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia
bThe Charles Perkins Centre, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
cSchool of Kinesiology and Health Studies, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada
dDepartment of Sport Industry Studies, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
Article Info
Publication History:
Published April 2026
DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(25)00518-2 External LinkAlso available on ScienceDirect External Link
Copyright: © 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Linked Articles
- Effects of climate change on physical inactivity: a panel data study across 156 countries from 2000 to 2022The Lancet Global HealthApril, 2026
Download started
OkWorldwide, climate change is inflicting devastating and uneven impacts on health.1 Although much attention has been focused on direct effects, emerging evidence suggests that climate change might also indirectly affect health by diminishing opportunities for physical activity2—a crucial yet overlooked casualty of a warming planet.
Responsible for extensive disease and economic burden worldwide, physical inactivity remains a leading risk factor for major chronic diseases. Yet, around a third of the world's population remains insufficiently active with no signs of improvement.3 Because physical activity is a context-specific behaviour and highly sensitive to environmental conditions,4 rising temperatures and extreme weather events could put physiological strain on the body, making outdoor physical activity undesirable and even dangerous. To date, few studies have systematically quantified the relationship between climate change and physical inactivity on a global scale.
In a new analysis, Christian García-Witulski and colleagues5 estimated the global effects of temperature distribution on physical inactivity. Using over two decades of panel data from 156 countries, a clear link was found between higher temperatures (operationalised as the number of months with a mean temperature of >27·8°C) and a higher prevalence of physical inactivity. The effects were stronger in women than men and in populations in low-income and middle-income countries (particularly across equatorial regions) than high-income countries. Using historical data, the authors provided a projection for physical inactivity by 2050, indicating further deterioration. These findings imply that continued warming will inflate the global disease and economic burden attributable to physical inactivity and deepen existing inequities in health and climate vulnerability.
Increasingly, physical activity is recognised as a fundamental human right.6 Yet, realising this right has become increasingly challenging. Extreme heat, paired with a lack of accessible climate-resilient infrastructure, impedes safe and enjoyable participation. Structural inequalities, such as unequal access to green and blue spaces, shade, and air-conditioned facilities, further intensify existing inequalities in physical activity participation.
As temperatures continue to rise, people in low-income and middle-income countries and disadvantaged communities might face double jeopardy—those who primarily engage in choice-based physical activity (eg, exercise or sport for health or leisure)7 might reduce their physical activity, whereas those who primarily engage in necessity-based physical activity (eg, occupation or some transportation-related movement)7 might experience more strains and harms from hazardous environments. Conversely, in higher-income countries and advantaged communities, people might retreat to indoor facilities for exercise, further increasing carbon emissions through air-conditioning and electrically powered equipment (eg, treadmills), and hence exacerbate climate change. This duality highlights the moral complexity of promoting physical activity in a warming world and underscores the need for equity considerations.
The study by García-Witulski and colleagues provides much needed and convincing evidence, but research gaps remain. The complex and dynamic bidirectional relationship between climate change and physical activity is less studied.2 Although some types of physical activity, such as professional sports events, exacerbate emissions, other types of physical activity, such as active transport and gardening, can benefit climate change mitigation.8 Meanwhile, climate change constrains access to quality outdoor activity opportunities.4 More importantly, future research should move from identifying problems to exploring solutions, particularly those that simultaneously address climate change and physical inactivity.
Future research should also investigate how physical activity promotion and climate resilience intersect around the world. Applying systems-oriented, multi-sectoral approaches that advance planetary health can reveal key entry points for leveraging physical activity to strengthen climate resilience. For example, future-proofing cities through compact and walkable urban design and adaptable transport systems helps sustain physical activity and transport efficiency with reduced environmental footprints.9,10 Expanding urban green spaces not only cools their vicinities but also enhances biodiversity, water management, and mental wellbeing, while also increasing equitable opportunities for physical activity.11,12 Such strategies, if implemented in an evidence-based, deliberate fashion, could result in even broader benefits beyond human health.10,11 Finally, to support equitable global progress, research, practice, and policies must prioritise addressing disparities to ensure that climate–physical activity policies do not reinforce or perpetuate existing hierarchies of privilege.
Physical inactivity and climate change are deeply interconnected challenges of our time. Promoting physical activity is not only essential for human health but could also offer co-benefits for climate resilience. Yet, rising temperatures increasingly threaten the ability to engage in physical activity. Addressing these challenges requires systemic, multi-sectoral approaches that advance planetary health. Framing physical activity as a fundamental human right and embedding climate resilience into public health and environmental and social policies would be crucial to create physical activity-enabling and climate-resilient environments. Ultimately, leveraging physical activity within a climate-resilient framework is both a moral imperative and a practical strategy for sustainable and equitable planetary health.
Competing Interests
We declare no competing interests.
References
1.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Climate change 2023: synthesis report
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf
Date: 2023
Date accessed: November 15, 2025
2.
Franco Silva, M ∙ Favarão Leão, AL ∙ O'Connor, Á ∙ et al.
Understanding the relationships between physical activity and climate change: an umbrella review
J Phys Act Health. 2024; 21:1263-1275
3.
Strain, T ∙ Flaxman, S ∙ Guthold, R ∙ et al.
National, regional, and global trends in insufficient physical activity among adults from 2000 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 507 population-based surveys with 5·7 million participants
Lancet Glob Health. 2024; 12:e1232-e1243
4.
Lee, E-Y ∙ Park, S ∙ Kim, Y-B ∙ et al.
Ambient environmental conditions and active outdoor play in the context of climate change: a systematic review and meta-synthesis
Environ Res. 2025; 283, 122146
5.
García-Witulski, C ∙ Rabassa, M ∙ Melo, O ∙ et al.
Effects of climate change on physical inactivity: a panel data study across 156 countries from 2000 to 2022
Lancet Glob Health. 2026; 14:e500-e511
6.
Messing, S ∙ Krennerich, M ∙ Abu-Omar, K ∙ et al.
Physical activity as a human right?
Health Hum Rights. 2021; 23:201-211
7.
Salvo, D ∙ Jáuregui, A ∙ Adlakha, D ∙ et al.
When moving is the only option: the role of necessity versus choice for understanding and promoting physical activity in low- and middle-income countries
Annu Rev Public Health. 2023; 44, 15169
8.
Abu-Omar, K ∙ Chevance, G ∙ Tcymbal, A ∙ et al.
Physical activity promotion, human and planetary health—a conceptual framework and suggested research priorities
J Clim Change Health. 2023; 13, 100262
9.
Garcia, L ∙ Hafezi, M ∙ Lima, L ∙ et al.
Future-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study
Lancet Planet Health. 2025; 9:e207-e218
10.
Ding, D ∙ Luo, M ∙ Infante, MFP ∙ et al.
The co-benefits of active travel interventions beyond physical activity: a systematic review
Lancet Planet Health. 2024; 8:e790-e803
11.
Soltanifard, H ∙ Amani-Beni, M
The cooling effect of urban green spaces as nature-based solutions for mitigating urban heat: insights from a decade-long systematic review
Clim Risk Manage. 2025; 49, 100731
12.
Kreisler, T ∙ Kambach, S ∙ Arránz Becker, O ∙ et al.
The relationship between green space and physical activity. A systematic review and meta-analysis
Urban For Urban Green. 2025; 112, 128971
Facts Only
* The study analyzed data from 156 countries between 2000 and 2022.
* Higher temperatures (defined as >27.8°C mean temperature for multiple months) were linked to increased physical inactivity.
* The effect was stronger in women.
* The effect was stronger in low- and middle-income countries, especially in equatorial regions.
* The study projected further deterioration of this relationship by 2050.
* Christian García-Witulski and colleagues conducted the analysis.
* The study used panel data to quantify the relationship.
* No specific methodologies for operationalizing temperature are detailed, beyond the use of monthly averages.
* The research identifies a potential acceleration of global health burdens related to inactivity.
Executive Summary
Full Take
Patterns detected: ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey, ARC-0024 Ambiguity, ARC-0018 Confirmation Bias
The García-Witulski et al. study represents a crucial, albeit unsettling, confirmation of a largely overlooked connection – that climate change isn't just a direct hazard, but a rapidly escalating risk multiplier for established health crises. Framing this as “another casualty of climate change” is effective, employing a familiar narrative structure (loss, casualty) to engage the reader and immediately establish the significance of the findings. However, the phrasing implicitly positions physical inactivity as a victim *of* climate change, subtly downplaying the active role human behavior plays in generating the problem. The “projection for physical inactivity by 2050” carries significant uncertainty; while the correlation is established, predicting future behavior based solely on temperature trends risks oversimplification – neglecting complex socio-economic shifts, technological advancements in fitness, and potentially adaptive behavioral responses. The emphasis on “inequities” is strategically deployed, highlighting both the vulnerability of marginalized groups and creating a moral imperative for action, framing it as an issue of justice rather than solely a public health concern. The work’s value lies not just in the numerical results, but in its forceful articulation of a critical feedback loop – a world that’s getting hotter, and as a consequence, people are less likely to move, which in turn contributes to further warming through reduced physical activity and metabolic processes. The study relies heavily on correlation, not causation, and the projected worsening implies a pathway without detailed consideration of mitigating factors.
Regarding manipulation patterns, the article employs a classic “motte-and-bailey” tactic, initially establishing a broad relationship (higher temperatures = more inactivity) and then narrowing the scope to a specific projection (2050), allowing for the possibility of disagreement without fundamentally challenging the core premise. The article also subtly leverages confirmation bias by highlighting the correlation, reinforcing existing anxieties about the impacts of climate change. The study's data is presented without a full explanation of the methodology, introducing a degree of ambiguity that could be exploited to create alternative interpretations. Finally, a potential systemic pattern exists, mirroring broader climate change narratives that position vulnerable populations as passive recipients of environmental harm – a “victim” narrative that can diminish agency and deflect responsibility.
Sentinel — Uncertain
This article presents a largely synthesized account of the link between climate change and physical inactivity, primarily driven by a panel data study. While the findings are presented persuasively, the text’s stylistic uniformity and reliance on generalized references suggest a potential level of AI assistance in structuring and articulating the argument.