Thursday links: the need for regulation

Quote of the Day
"Women were always active investors. None of this glosses over the unfairness, the misogyny, or the barriers women regularly encountered. But it begs the question why each generation seems to give its best shocked-face emoji when “discovering” women actively invest."
(Joseph S. Moore)
Prediction markets
- Kalshi is going to allow bets on drug trials. (theguardian.com)
- Kalshi is rolling out more features for institutional traders. (semafor.com)
- Trump's teleprompter operator reportedly has been betting on Kalshi on speech outcomes. (abcnews.com)
Finance
- The Bloomberg Terminal is the still the market leader. (ft.com)
- Truth Social is now selling access to its API. (axios.com)
Pharma
- Novo Nordisk ($NVO) is besting Eli Lilly ($LLY) in weight loss pills. (wsj.com)
- Eli Lilly ($LLY) is buying AtaiBeckley which is developing psychedelics for mental health treatment. (cnbc.com)
- Merck's ($MRK) cholesterol pill, Lipfendra, is a blockbuster in waiting. (biopharmadive.com)
AI
- Everybody is converging on the need to regulate AI. (axios.com)
- Are AI executives uniquely at-risk of violence? (wsj.com)
- The Apple-OpenAI suit is going to involve a lot of e-mails. (spyglass.org)
Stay in touch
- Work in wealth management? Sign up for our advisor-exclusive Talking Wealth newsletter. (talkingwealthpod.com)
- Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)
Video
- Amazon ($AMZN) Prime is leaning into shows based on young-adult fiction. (wsj.com)
- Why Netflix ($NFLX) movies and shows look like slop. (freddiedeboer.substack.com)
- Versant ($VSNT) is remaking 'Fandango at Home.' (hollywoodreporter.com)
Oil
- Global stocks of oil have been effectively drawn down. (ft.com)
- Diesel prices are again over $5 a gallon. (nytimes.com)
Economy
- Retail sales are strong. (bonddad.blogspot.com)
- The Fed's balance sheet won't shrink rapidly. (economist.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Longform links: detecting AI errors. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Wednesday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Personal finance links: the best upgrade. (abnormalreturns.com)
Mixed media
- Jason Zweig's summer reading list including: Robin Wigglesworth's "A Fabulous Debt: The Epic Story of How Bonds Built the Modern World." (wsj.com)
- Summer reading from Behavioral Scientist including: "The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice" by Jennifer Doleac. (behavioralscientist.org)
- A positive review for Liaquat Ahamed's "1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World." (gregmankiw.blogspot.com)

Facts Only

* Kalshi is allowing bets on drug trials.
* Kalshi is rolling out more features for institutional traders.
* Trump's teleprompter operator reportedly has been betting on Kalshi on speech outcomes.
* The Bloomberg Terminal is the market leader in finance.
* Truth Social is selling access to its API.
* Novo Nordisk ($NVO) is besting Eli Lilly ($LLY) in weight loss pills.
* Eli Lilly ($LLY) is buying AtaiBeckley, which develops psychedelics for mental health treatment.
* Merck's ($MRK) cholesterol pill, Lipfendra, is anticipated to be a blockbuster.
* Everybody is converging on the need to regulate AI.
* Are AI executives uniquely at-risk of violence?
* The Apple-OpenAI suit is expected to involve many emails.
* Amazon ($AMZN) Prime is leaning into shows based on young-adult fiction.
* Netflix ($NFLX) movies and shows are viewed as low quality.
* Versant ($VSNT) is remaking 'Fandango at Home.'
* Global stocks of oil have been effectively drawn down.
* Diesel prices are over $5 a gallon.
* Retail sales are strong.
* The Fed's balance sheet is not expected to shrink rapidly.

Executive Summary

Prediction markets are emerging, exemplified by Kalshi allowing bets on drug trials and rolling out features for institutional traders, with reports of high-profile figures engaging in these bets. In the finance sector, the Bloomberg Terminal remains the market leader, while platforms like Truth Social are monetizing their APIs. Pharmaceutical activity shows Novo Nordisk outpacing Eli Lilly in weight loss medication, and Eli Lilly is acquiring AtaiBeckley to develop psychedelic treatments. The field of Artificial Intelligence is characterized by a convergence toward regulation, concerns over executive risk, and ongoing legal actions, such as the Apple-OpenAI suit. Other market dynamics include oil price trends and strong retail sales, alongside various media trends concerning entertainment and technology integration.

Full Take

The convergence across various sectors—from finance and pharmaceuticals to AI regulation and market prediction—suggests an environment characterized by high-stakes decision-making, technological disruption, and underlying structural shifts in perceived risk and value. The juxtaposition of speculative markets like Kalshi with established financial leaders like the Bloomberg Terminal reflects a tension between new, fluid avenues for betting on future outcomes and traditional, institutionalized structures. In the pharmaceutical space, the shift in focus toward novel treatments, exemplified by psychedelic research acquisitions, indicates a dynamic search for high-impact therapeutic breakthroughs over incremental gains. The AI narrative points to an accelerating social demand for governance alongside rapid technological evolution, creating potential friction between innovation velocity and regulatory pacing. The pattern observed is one where informational asymmetry—whether in market access, pharmaceutical efficacy data, or technological risk assessment—is being monetized or heavily contested. This structure suggests that the perceived safety of any given outcome is less about objective certainty and more about navigating the shifting landscape of information control. What determines which bets win, and whose agency is prioritized in this new ecosystem?

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

This text appears to be a curated news digest, likely from a newsletter or aggregated feed, characterized by rapid topic switching rather than deep argumentative synthesis.

Signals Detected

Sentence length variance is relatively high and varied between short headlines/links and the single quote, suggesting human editorial style rather than uniform rhythm.

The content reads like a compilation of diverse, disparate news snippets (finance, pharma, AI, video) linked by minimal context, which is typical of curated feeds or newsletters, but the framing seems driven by real events rather than manufactured agreement.

The structure heavily relies on link aggregation and topic headings rather than continuous argumentation, suggesting a journalistic digest format. No obvious verbatim template matching is detected.

The inclusion of highly specific, yet fragmented quotes (e.g., Moore's quote, specific company stock moves) points toward aggregation from verifiable sources rather than pure LLM fabrication.

Human Indicators

The presence of distinct, often opinionated or tangential links (e.g., 'Why Netflix movies and shows look like slop') injected alongside hard financial data suggests a human curation layer.

The jarring juxtaposition between high-level philosophical quotes and specific stock tickers points to a personal filter applied to mass information.