German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was facing pressure Monday after the far-right Alternative Germany (AfD) party swept to a landslide victory in a regional election, possibly paving the way for the first right-wing populist state government since the Nazi era.
AfD, classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as an extremist group in some regions of the country, fell just short of a majority in Sunday’s election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt.
Because of Germany’s Nazi past, far-right movements have always come under strong scrutiny, with the other major parties maintaining a firewall against any form of co-operation. Unlike most countries in Europe, modern Germany hasn’t yet had a far-right or right-wing populist party leading a national, state or major-city government
Merz, who leads the centre-right Christian Democrats, came to power vowing to weaken AfD, but was unable to deliver on his promise.
AfD’s strong victory is a major distraction for Germany and Merz at a time when Europe faces several challenges, including Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine, a suspected sabotage campaign targeting NATO countries, and difficult dealings with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Far-right parties across Europe cheered the result.
Merz likely to face blame for his party’s poor showing
Tricky coalition talks lie ahead, and the AfD candidate for Gov., Ulrich Siegmund, still aims to become the first far-right head of a state government.
“I am telling you today that we must reclaim our old, safe, beautiful Germany. We proved that yesterday, and therefore this is the path we will now take together,” Siegmund told reporters in Berlin on Monday.
The vote weakens the chancellor significantly and he will be partly held responsible for his party’s historic loss after it led the state for the past 24 years. Support for Merz’s CDU party fell by half, while AfD more than doubled its share of the vote. The result could also energize AfD in other state elections later this month.
Merz is expected to comment later on Monday after meetings of his party and government leaders.
AfD, known for its pro-Russian and radical anti-immigration stance, is the biggest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament and is strongest in the formerly communist and less prosperous east, where Saxony-Anhalt is located.
Leading a state government would be the biggest prize for AfD in its 13-year history, coming at a time of widespread discontent with a national government that has yet to persuade voters that it can get the country’s sluggish economy moving.
Hard-left party could play a kingmaker role
While Siegmund has rejected an AfD minority government, his party could possibly govern with the hard-left BSW party, which received 5.3 per cent of the vote. The two parties share a Russia-friendly course and oppose immigration but do not agree on some other subjects.
On Monday, BSW’s lead candidate in the election, Thomas Schulze, expressed his party’s willingness again to help an AfD Governor take office in the state parliament.
Forming a government that excludes the AfD would only be possible if all the other parties that were elected worked together – CDU, Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party, and the BSW. However, a coalition involving five partners would be extremely unusual, very complicated and prone to instability.
It’s also possible that newly elected lawmakers from other parties could defect to AfD – it would only need three people to get a majority to govern.
“The task before us is a very clear mandate to form the government,” Siegmund said, adding that his party would reach out to all other new factions in parliament and even to individual lawmakers. “Our goal now is to build precisely this stable majority in the coming days and weeks.”
AfD previously won a state election but didn’t end up governing. That was two years ago in neighbouring Thuringia, where a CDU Governor took power with a minority government, but AfD was much further short of a majority there. So far, the country’s mainstream parties have adhered to the so-called firewall, meaning they refused to work with AfD.
Jubilation from Musk and right-wing populists
Billionaire Elon Musk congratulated the party on its election victory with a “Well done!” on his online platform X.
Siegmund immediately thanked him for his support, replying in English: “If we take on responsibility here, I would very much welcome the opportunity for strong and constructive co-operation. Germany would then once again be a place worth investing in. Best regards from Saxony-Anhalt!”
Trump posted a screenshot of the election projection on his “Truth Social” platform without any comment.
Russian presidential envoy Kirill Dmitriev on X described the outcome of the election as a “historic win for the pragmatic AfD that will put migration under control.” In a separate post, Dmitriev said that “AfD will restore Germany and Europe by leading the commons-sense approach that migrant-friendly, warmongering Biden-think EU politicians tried to eradicate.”
The leaders of right-wing populist parties in Spain and Portugal also congratulated AfD, German news agency dpa reported.
The Polish prime minister was critical. “In Poland, only idiots or traitors could rejoice the AfD triumph in Germany,” Donald Tusk wrote on X.
And among voters who didn’t back AfD, the reaction was one of deep dismay.
Horst Walter Boerner, 86, from Magdeburg, expressed shock. He was a child during World War II and the Nazi era.
“It’s terrible for us,” he said, saying the election was “fear-driven.”
AfD’s victory was foreseeable because of the crowds it drew during the campaign, but he said “this should have never happened.”
AfD calls the result a signal for change
AfD won 43.8 per cent of the vote, more than double its showing five years ago in Saxony-Anhalt, west of Berlin.
That was far ahead of Merz’s party, which polled 17.2 per cent – losing about half its support – and won 15 seats. The centre-left Social Democrats polled 9.3 per cent, the Greens 8.9 per cent and the Left Party 8.6 per cent, winning eight seats apiece.
The BSW party took 5.3 per cent and five seats.
Turnout was very high at 77.8 per cent. AfD appeared to have won over many people who didn’t vote at all five years ago.
Alice Weidel, one of AfD’s two national leaders, praised the turnout and said the result was a signal for change.
“No chancellor before has been as unpopular as Friedrich Merz, who has become a major obstacle to Germany’s prosperous development,” she said.
“The people in this country no longer want business as usual when it comes to illegal immigration, open borders, skyrocketing crime rates among foreign nationals, refused deportations, and a disastrous energy policy.”
Facts Only
* The Alternative Germany (AfD) party won 43.8 per cent of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt regional election.
* Friedrich Merz leads the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU).
* The CDU received 17.2 per cent of the vote, winning 15 seats.
* The Social Democrats received 9.3 per cent, the Greens 8.9 per cent, and the Left Party 8.6 per cent, each winning eight seats.
* The BSW party received 5.3 per cent of the vote and won five seats.
* Voter turnout for the election was 77.8 per cent.
* Ulrich Siegmund is the AfD candidate for Governor.
* Thomas Schulze is the lead candidate for the BSW party.
* Alice Weidel is one of the two national leaders of the AfD.
* The AfD is classified as an extremist group in some regions by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency.
Executive Summary
The Alternative Germany (AfD) party has achieved a landslide victory in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, securing 43.8 per cent of the vote. This result marks a historic shift, as the party more than doubled its previous share while the governing CDU, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, saw its support fall by half. The victory places the AfD in a position to potentially lead its first state government, provided it can secure a majority through a coalition or lawmaker defections.
The path to governance remains uncertain. While mainstream parties have historically maintained a "firewall" against cooperation with the AfD, the hard-left BSW party has expressed willingness to help an AfD Governor take office. Alternatively, a complex five-party coalition would be required to exclude the AfD entirely. This political volatility unfolds against a backdrop of economic stagnation and external pressures, including relations with the U.S. and Russia. International reactions are polarized, with congratulations from Elon Musk and Russian officials, contrasted by sharp criticism from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative presents a democratic crisis where a populist surge, fueled by economic discontent and anti-immigration sentiment, threatens the established post-war political order. It frames the event as a collision between the "firewall" of mainstream stability and a growing appetite for radical systemic change.
The narrative relies on a specific framing of historical continuity, linking current political shifts directly to the Nazi era to heighten the stakes. While the mention of the "firewall" is a factual political strategy, the framing suggests that any breach of this wall is a departure from fundamental German identity, rather than a shift in voter preference.
Patterns detected: none
The root cause is a paradigm of "stability vs. disruption." The unstated assumption is that the current centrist governance is the only legitimate guardian of democracy, while the populist surge is viewed primarily as a symptom of failure or extremism rather than a distinct political philosophy. This echoes the broader European trend of "hollowing out" the center-right and center-left.
The implications for human agency are significant: voters in Saxony-Anhalt are exercising their agency to reject a 24-year status quo, yet the institutional response focuses on "containment" (the firewall) rather than addressing the underlying grievances. The second-order consequence may be increased polarization if voters feel their mandate is being bypassed through "unusual" five-party coalitions.
Bridge Questions:
1. If the mainstream parties form an unstable five-party coalition to block the AfD, does that strengthen or weaken the public's faith in democratic institutions?
2. To what extent is the "firewall" an effective security measure versus a catalyst for further radicalization?
Counterstrike Scan: A coordinated influence campaign would use this event to signal the "collapse" of the West or the "inevitability" of the far-right to demoralize opposition. The actual content remains a journalistic account of election results and reactions, not a strategic psychological operation.