Investors may want to take a step back as stocks swing amid rising geopolitical tensions.
DBi's Andrew Beer suggests the market's crystal ball is broken.
"It's not normal for big markets to move as much as they are right now," the firm's managing member told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. "Something is deeply wrong in the market's ability to forecast the state of the world... The only thing we can all do as investors is: This is the moment to plan and to prepare for the worst. You hope for the best."
Beer, who has spent more than three decades in the hedge fund industry, thinks it's remarkable the number of stresses on the financial system over the past 12 to18 months hasn't caused things to spin out of control.
"You just you have more geopolitical risks stacked on top of each other today [and] more economic risk factors than I remember at any time in my career," he added.
Beer urges investors to ask themselves how they would act if a 2008 or 2022 market downturn happens again.
"These financial assets are, they're an investment, but they're also what you need to survive, to live on, to retire, and so it's the very real human side of it that I hope people will focus on," he added.
According to Beer, investing like it's 2025 could turn into regret.
"The best thing to do in 2025 was just turn off your computer beginning of the year and come back at the end of the year, and you've made money, your stocks and your bonds and everything else," he said. "It won't continue like that. We will go through a more difficult period."
Recent moves in gold, silver, bitcoin and crude oil underscore how difficult it has become for investors to calibrate portfolios, especially as sharp reversals unfold over short periods of time, according to Beer.
"No one has a playbook for that," said Beer, who is also watching for signs of strain in private credit, insurance company portfolios and other corners of the market where unusual stress could begin to spread.
NovaDius Wealth Management's Nate Geraci highlighted exchange-traded funds that are designed to offer portfolio protection — particularly managed futures ETFs.
"This is absolutely something that is a longer-term allocation, and I almost view it as portfolio insurance," the firm's president said in the same interview. "You want that insurance when something goes bad in the market, and maybe that's stocks and bonds going down together."
Facts Only
Andrew Beer, managing member of DBi, spoke on CNBC’s "ETF Edge" about current market conditions.
Beer has over three decades of experience in the hedge fund industry.
He states that large markets are moving more than usual, indicating a breakdown in forecasting ability.
Beer describes the past 12 to 18 months as having an unprecedented number of geopolitical and economic risks.
He advises investors to prepare for potential market downturns similar to 2008 or 2022.
Beer emphasizes the human impact of financial losses, including retirement and survival needs.
He warns that 2025’s market stability, where stocks and bonds performed well, is unlikely to continue.
Recent volatility in gold, silver, bitcoin, and crude oil is cited as evidence of market instability.
Beer identifies potential stress points in private credit and insurance company portfolios.
Nate Geraci, president of NovaDius Wealth Management, recommends managed futures ETFs as portfolio protection.
Geraci describes managed futures ETFs as a form of long-term portfolio insurance.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative presented here leans heavily on authority—Beer’s decades of experience and Geraci’s professional role—to lend weight to warnings about market instability. The strongest version of this argument is that investors should exercise caution in an environment where traditional forecasting tools are failing, and geopolitical risks are compounding. The advice to "prepare for the worst" is framed as pragmatic, not alarmist, with an emphasis on the human stakes of financial decisions.
However, the pattern scan reveals potential emotional exploitation (ARC-0012 Fear Appeals) in the repeated emphasis on "worst-case scenarios" and the human cost of financial loss. While the warnings may be well-intentioned, the framing risks amplifying anxiety without offering actionable solutions beyond vague preparedness. The recommendation of managed futures ETFs as "portfolio insurance" could also be seen as an appeal to authority (ARC-0031 Borrowed Credibility), where a specific financial product is positioned as a necessary safeguard without deeper scrutiny of its limitations.
The root cause of this narrative appears to be a paradigm of market unpredictability, where traditional models no longer suffice. The unstated assumption is that investors must act defensively, even if the timing or nature of the next crisis remains unclear. Historically, this echoes post-2008 risk aversion, where trauma from past crashes shapes present behavior.
For human agency, the implications are mixed. On one hand, the advice empowers individuals to take control of their financial planning. On the other, it may discourage participation in markets altogether, particularly for less sophisticated investors. The beneficiaries of this narrative could include financial advisors and firms selling protective products, while the costs are borne by investors who may overreact or underperform by sitting on the sidelines.
Bridge questions: What alternative strategies exist for investors who cannot afford or access managed futures ETFs? How might overemphasis on worst-case scenarios distort long-term financial planning? What evidence would contradict the claim that market forecasting is fundamentally broken?
Counterstrike scan: If this were part of a coordinated influence campaign, the playbook would involve amplifying fear to drive demand for specific financial products (e.g., managed futures ETFs) while positioning skeptics as reckless. The actual content does not fully match this pattern, as the warnings are generalized rather than tied to a specific product push. However, the lack of counterarguments or alternative perspectives is notable.