Samsung Electronics (005930) is expected to more than double output of its HBM4 family of high-bandwidth memory chips next year, including sixth-generation HBM4 and seventh-generation HBM4E, as the company plans to raise demand for glass carriers by 2.5 times from this year. Glass carriers are glass supports that hold wafers in place while HBM DRAM is thinned.
Samsung will increase outsourced cleaning volume for glass carriers, an essential material in HBM production, to 50,000 sheets a month next year from 20,000 sheets a month this year, according to semiconductor industry sources on the 20th. Glass carrier requirements stood at 10,000 sheets a month as recently as last year, doubling this year and set to rise 2.5-fold next year.
A glass carrier is a support temporarily attached to the underside of an HBM DRAM wafer to prevent bending or cracking while the wafer is ground thin and drilled. Because HBM requires stacking multiple DRAM dies within a limited thickness, the technology for thinning wafers and the processes for controlling warpage become more important as stack counts rise.
The HBM4 and HBM4E products Samsung is preparing to scale up center on 12-layer and higher stacks. Industry analysts say that even accounting for the fact that glass carriers are reused after cleaning and that consumption varies by process loading method and yield, a 2.5-fold increase in related volume makes it highly likely that HBM4 and HBM4E output will grow at least twofold from this year.
In February, Samsung began mass-production shipments of HBM4 using 10-nanometer-class sixth-generation (1c) DRAM and a base die built on a 4-nanometer process. In May, it also provided 12-layer HBM4E samples to customers including Nvidia.
The industry expects Samsung's HBM production scale to grow nearly 40% to about 250,000 wafers next year from roughly 180,000 wafers this year, measured by average monthly wafer input. By product shipment mix, the HBM4 family is projected to rise from around 40% this year to about 80% next year as HBM4E mass production ramps up. "As Samsung expands HBM production, it appears to be placing HBM4, a high-value product, at the center," an industry official said.
Facts Only
* Samsung Electronics is expected to double the output of its HBM4 family next year, including sixth-generation HBM4 and seventh-generation HBM4E.
* Demand for glass carriers is planned to rise 2.5 times from this year.
* Outsourced cleaning volume for glass carriers will increase to 50,000 sheets per month next year from 20,000 sheets per month this year.
* Glass carrier requirements were 10,000 sheets per month last year, doubling this year and set to rise 2.5-fold next year.
* A glass carrier supports HBM DRAM wafers during thinning to prevent bending or cracking.
* HBM4 and HBM4E products are being prepared for scaling on 12-layer and higher stacks.
* Samsung began mass-production shipments of HBM4 using 10-nanometer-class sixth-generation (1c) DRAM in February.
* Samsung provided 12-layer HBM4E samples to customers including Nvidia in May.
* Industry expects Samsung's HBM production scale to grow nearly 40% to about 250,000 wafers next year from roughly 180,000 wafers this year (average monthly wafer input).
* The HBM4 family is projected to rise from around 40% of shipments this year to about 80% next year due to HBM4E mass production ramp-up.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The narrative centers on a tightly coupled supply chain dynamic where increased demand for advanced memory (HBM4/HBM4E) creates amplified, predictable pressure on ancillary materials like glass carriers. The central mechanism is the physical constraint: as HBM stacking increases in layers, the requirement for precise support structures (glass carriers) scales non-linearly, leading to an estimated 2.5-fold volume increase in demand. This highlights a systemic tension between cutting-edge semiconductor architectural goals and the material science/manufacturing realities required to support them.
The assertion that HBM4 production will grow at least twofold is contextualized by acknowledging variables like reuse rates and process variations, which introduces necessary analytical friction. The implication for the market is that advancements in memory architecture are not solely dependent on transistor density but are intrinsically linked to material throughput capabilities. When industry analysts suggest HBM4 becomes the central focus during expansion, it suggests a prioritization shift where the high-value, advanced product drives the subsequent scaling of the enabling components, rather than them being purely downstream consequences. The pattern suggests that supply chain bottlenecks, even in specialized inputs like glass carriers, become critical choke points when technologies scale aggressively.
The missing inquiry lies in quantifying the true elasticity of the supply chain against these projections. What are the known limitations on material substitution for glass carriers? How do fluctuations in yield or process loading affect the predicted 2.5-fold demand increase across different manufacturing nodes? These questions invite an examination of whether the predicted growth is a reflection of pure technological ambition or an accurate reflection of achievable engineering and logistical execution within the semiconductor ecosystem.