The narrative presents a classic boom-to-bust cycle in M&A, framed by geopolitical shocks as the primary disruptor. The strongest version of this argument—its steelman—is that external, unpredictable events (war, oil shocks) derailed an otherwise robust deal-making environment, supported by concrete data on deal volume declines and oil price spikes. However, the analysis leans heavily on correlation without deeper causal scrutiny. For instance, while the Iran conflict is cited as the catalyst, t...