It’s comforting to see Donald Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and ill-educated ignoramus who does not understand the world of geopolitics. But that is nonsense.
By Craig Murray
CraigMurray.org.uk
What if Trump’s apparently chaotic thought processes and intuitive decision making are all a blind, a charade? What if we are really witnessing, in the Middle East and more widely, a carefully constructed plan with very definite objectives?
Has Trump in fact “planned each charted course, each careful step along the byway”, while flinging the chaff of apparent chaos? I realise that this is not intuitive, but bear with me…
What kicked off my thinking was the revelation by Lockheed Martin that they had been instructed by Trump, months in advance of the attack on Iran, to massively increase production of interceptor missiles, with a short term goal of quadrupling capacity of THAAD.
In January, before the start of the current conflict, Fox News was already reporting on various deals, including a trebling of PAC3 MSE interceptor deliveries, having been finalised between Lockheed and the Department of War.
While obviously there are supply chain and production line constraints on the ability to ramp up production within months, the urgency of this activity – almost entirely focused on interceptor missiles – that started in 2025 is in hindsight a clear indication that early war with Iran was expected. It is plain evidence of premeditation.
The second thing that triggered my thought that this is all carefully planned, is the nature of the breakdown of the nuclear deal talks. It appears there was a broad consensus that Iran offered concessions which made a deal very practical, in particular giving up its stocks of enriched uranium into trust (a proposal Iran had historically rejected when Putin offered to hold the material). Both the hosts, Oman and the British thought a deal was there.
The failure of the talks is being spun as due to the incompetence and lack of technical knowledge of Witkoff and Kushner. But I just don’t buy this. The sending of unqualified negotiators was part of a ploy to use the negotiations as cover for an attack – the second time in a year that the United States had pulled the same trick.
They didn’t need competent negotiators, because they had never intended a good faith negotiation.
The attack on Iran was always planned by Trump. He was not “bounced into it” by Israel. It had been in gestation for months. That fact had been held within a very tight circle to avoid both political opposition and institutional opposition from the US military and intelligence community.
January’s protests in Iran found ordinary people genuinely ready to protest, motivated by economic hardship caused by sanctions. But they were guided and abused by Mossad and C.I.A. agents among the Iranian people, who committed and encouraged violence and initiated pro-Shah chanting.
There was never the slightest possibility the protests would bring regime change, but that was not the intention. The purpose was to incite an over-reaction by the Iranian government that could “justify” the planned attack on Iran. The dead protestors have been great martyrs for Trump’s – and Israel’s – wider cause.
The planting by Western state-sponsored individuals and organisations of ludicrous claims throughout Western state and corporate media of thirty to forty thousand killed, was a deliberate and considered plan to reduce domestic opposition in the West to the forthcoming war against Iran.
Now factor in another apparently random act by Trump – the astonishing kidnapping of President Maduro of Venezuela on 3 January, a month before the attack on Iran.
Trump’s naval blockade of Venezuela’s oil has secured a U.S. monopoly of its sale and distribution. As with Iraq, only US-approved contractors can buy the oil and payments are made to a Trump-controlled account in Qatar, from which revenue is given to the Venezuelan government entirely at Trump’s discretion.
This audacious imperialist grab of the world’s largest oil reserve further insulated the USA against the effects of the forthcoming closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Again, the narrative is being spun that Trump did not foresee the closure of the Strait by Iran. That is plainly a nonsense – every commentary on a potential Iran war for half a century has focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The only possible explanation is that Trump does not mind the closure.
While, as Trump says, the United States does not need the oil that comes through the Strait, the apparent weakness in his case is that higher oil prices are universal and hit Trump’s support, particularly as Americans fill their gas tanks.
But to concentrate on this is to make the fundamental error of imagining that Trump cares about what is good for the American people. He does not. He cares about what is good for Donald J. Trump and his immediate circle.
Here is the Chevron share price over the last month:
And here is Lockheed Martin. Note that the start of the 40% leap in share price coincides with those instructions last year on massively ramping up interceptor production.
Not to mention, of course, that the really big fortunes will have been made in oil and derivative commodity futures by those who knew this war was coming (acting through proxies).
The $200 billion Trump is requesting from Congress to continue the war is going to make an awful lot of well-connected people even richer.
So the plan is the making of fortunes, the strengthening of the military-industrial complex and the ratcheting up under cover of national cohesion in war of the authoritarianism that has reduced freedom of speech and outlawed dissent against Israel across the Western world.
To benefit Israel is the other predominant motive.
Trump’s thrashing about to articulate objectives for the war in Iran is performative, a blind to cover his true and steadfast objective – simply the annihilation of Iran as a functioning state, the infliction of the maximum amount of death and infrastructural damage, the reduction of Iran to the condition of Libya.
It goes without saying that the seizure of control of Iran’s hydrocarbons by the U.S. is the ultimate endgame of this destruction, exactly as in Libya and in Iraq. But a linked and crucial objective is the elimination of the source of the only physical resistance to the expansion of Israel. Iran and its allies in Yemen and Lebanon have been the sole support of the Palestinians for years.
The colonial settler state of Israel is central to the projection of imperialist power in the Middle East. Its expansion is an essential part of the plan.
Destruction of Iran on the scale envisaged will take years of hard pounding. Again, it is planned – you don’t ask Congress for an instalment of $200 billion for a war you plan to wrap up in a month.
Again, Trump’s taunts about having already won, objectives being achieved and about possibly finishing soon, are all just smoke and mirrors. The scale and horror of what is planned for Iran has to be obfuscated to limit a public revulsion that would be echoed in parts of the state apparatus.
Netanyahu yesterday revealed an interesting part of the endgame – construction of an oil pipeline that brings Iran’s oil out to be shipped from a Mediterranean terminal in Israel. That is a breathtakingly audacious plan, but absolutely aligns with Netanyahu’s and Trump’s actions.
Which brings us to the Greater Israel side of the project. Israel is not going to put any of its ships or soldiers in harm’s way in Iran – that is the American contribution.
But while the world is primarily watching Iran, Israel is starting a large-scale invasion of Lebanon with the aim of annexing all of Southern Lebanon permanently, even beyond the Litani River and including the cities of Tyre and Nabatieh, both currently under Israeli evacuation orders.
This land of course adjoins the annexed Golan Heights and the much larger area of Southern Syria that Israel has annexed in the past year with the acquiescence of Zionist puppet “President” al-Jolani.
It is essential not to lose sight of the bipartisan nature of the United States’ long term plan. In a very real sense Trump is continuing – if greatly accelerating – the policy under Biden, who protected and enabled the Genocide in Gaza.
The success of this US policy is phenomenal. Just consider that only 18 months ago the Zionist “Presidents” al-Jolani of Syria and Aoun of Lebanon were not in power. Both were brought to power as a result of US-aligned military action, by Israel against Hezbollah and by the C.I.A.- and MI6-sponsored HTS forces. Put in place by Biden, they are now central to Trump’s strategy.
Aoun and al-Jolani are now united in threatening Hezbollah in the rear as it fights a desperate action against the Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Meanwhile Israel officially occupies over 60 percent of the Gaza Strip – under cover of Trump’s “Board of Peace,” and continues to murder, blockade and starve the inhabitants of the remnant, while the de facto expansion of Israel into the West Bank and the levels of settler violence are escalating to levels of the utmost barbarity.
Iranian resistance is noble and Iran’s resilience has surprised many. It will be able to make any ground invasion, or even limited incursion, extremely costly for the United States. But as in Gaza or Lebanon, if the U.S. and Israel are content simply to pound from the air for years with devastating force, and with no concern whatsoever for civilian casualties, ultimately all Iran can do is hang on and try to survive.
Given another year of destruction at the current levels of intensity, I do not believe that Iran would effectively be sending many missiles and drones back in self-defence.
In a week or two we will hit the period of maximum Iranian effectiveness, where depletion of U.S.-supplied interceptor missiles coincides with Iran retaining significant strike power. Israel’s fragile civilian morale will then be tested severely for a few weeks.
Iran’s capacity to defend against massive, years-sustained aerial bombardment is limited. We should not blind ourselves to that fact out of current joy at the Americans and Israelis getting a bloody nose.
It is comforting to see Trump as a buffoon, to accept the facade he presents of a blustering and ill-educated ignoramus, who swings wildly between policy options, and who does not understand the world of geopolitics.
But that is nonsense.
I have no hesitation in characterising Trump’s genius as evil, focused on personal gain and willing to inflict any amount of death, maiming and deprivation on innocent civilians to attain his goals. But he is indeed attaining his goals on the world stage.
Trump has forced the Security Council to underwrite his Board of Peace. This was a quite astonishing diplomatic triumph over a helpless Russia and China, both of which decided that other negotiations with Trump were more important.
Trump has presided over Israel expanding on the ground by the day. Trump has taken Venezuela’s oil, the largest reserves in the world. Trump is currently killing the people of Iran and destroying their infrastructure, while feigning indecision.
You should hate Trump: but he is no clown.
Craig Murray is an author, broadcaster and human rights activist. He was British ambassador to Uzbekistan from August 2002 to October 2004 and rector of the University of Dundee from 2007 to 2010. His coverage is entirely dependent on reader support. Subscriptions to keep this blog going are gratefully received.
Subscriptions to keep Craig Murray’s blog going are gratefully received. Because some people wish an alternative to PayPal, Murray has set up new methods of payment including a GoFundMe appeal and a Patreon account.
This article is from CraigMurray.org.uk.
Views expressed in this article may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.
Apparently (if my sources are correct) Israel has just jumped the gun and defied Trump’s deadline by attacking Iranian energy sites, Khorramabad has been plunged into darkness. Ergo, we will likely now see crucial energy infrastructure and desalination plants inside the Gulf satrapies and the Jewish supremacist entity targeted by the IRGC. This could make swaths of the Middle East uninhabitable.
The reason the Jewish supremacists are so committed to escalating this war and annihilateing Iran is bc of course they’re neurotic, paranoid and hegemonic and perceive Iran as a threat to Greater Israel. But the key reason that the Jewish supremacists are pushing all this deadly lunacy right now is bc they fully understand that younger U.S. citizens have turned against the creepy sadistic arrogant Zionist entity. The Jewish supremacists know their gravy train will soon come to an end, so they’re going for broke, trying to blow everything up.
Three hearty cheers for Generation Z and the Millennials!
As Netanyahu and a couple of his fellow mobsters have an ICC Arrest Warrant out on them, why doesn’t the ICC (backed by the UN) put out an arrest warrant on Trump, as he attacked Iran illegally ?
I prefer Brian Berletic’s take on this: the Washington Blob has been planning this war for twenty years (as outlined in the policy papers by their favorite think tanks), and the president has no real power to resist them. Trump, like every other president since Kennedy’s murder, is simply instrumentalized to do their bidding. Does it really even matter if Trump a fragile narcissist dealing with dementia or not? The Blob gets what it wants.
Craig Murray joins Francesca Albanese in revealing how the
“War Industry” (Christian Sorensen), applies “the utmost
barbarity” to expand Zionist Israel’s Middle East dominance
for US imperialist control. And Saudi Arabia’s “Jack the
Ripper” (Khashoggi killing, 2018), prince already siding
with the Zionist genocidal torturing Trump partner in this circus.
Thanks for painful truth.
It is difficult to imagine Trump as Ernst Blofeld, but Murray’s argument is strong and does add interesting data points. What the argument doesn’t do is consider the option of long standing conspiratorial forces operating through the Trump presidency(ies). I have long considered Trump’s public behavior as performative with what ever there is lying behind as deeply unclear. Murray is offering one cogent assertion, but without ruling out others.
Craig sees Trump clearly now,
The rain has gone.
Craig can see all obstacles in our way.
Gone are the dark clouds that had us down.
It’s gonna be a bright, bright, bright
Sunshiney day!
Trump is no genius. He doesn’t know his own administration’s imperialist moves that just follows other US Administrations but is even more open and brutal than Biden’s Presidency. The US imperialist focus is fueled by our military/Industrial companies and their interest.
I’d say the evidence presented in this article is pretty solid. And a long war of attrition against Iran dovetails perfectly with the slow destruction of free speech at home, and the departure of any meaningful Constitutional rights for U. S. citizens (and anyone else) altogether. Like the Iraq War, we’ll paint little ribbons on our cars and trucks. And this time we’ll burn Venezuelan oil while our leaders light their cigars with thousand-dollar bills. This time, however, I doubt that the rest of the world will ignore us. They can divide the world into two parts, starve us and sanction us, much as we have done with the Global South. A well-reasoned reminder of the likely reality behind this war, Craig Murray.
I have much respect for Craig Murray’s writing. However, of all the articles I have read over the past four years (I plugged in back when I thought Putin was going to take over the world) of horror and disillusionment, this article is the most depressing! I want to believe Trump is an idiot and buffoon but I fear Craig is correct. The only nagging thought is that much of the previous US governments seemed to align with Trumps foreign policy. So my small glimmer of hope is that Trump is an idiot and buffoon and some evil wizard is still behind the curtain.
Always hi was a buffoon,a tv clown & still is,the power who sit him at the chair & any other is the one behind the decisions, always was like this.
Corporations,banks, guns manufacturing,media, elons ,etc,etc…..are the one who decide.
“In the end, peace can be achieved only by hegemony or by balance of power”
Henry A. Kissinger
If Trump is such an idiot, why isn’t Millionaire Bernie in the White House today?
It is best not to underestimate one’s enemy. And at least appreciate that it was as hard for Trump to get to the White House as it would be for you to get there. Even if someone gave you a billion dollars! You still wouldn’t be able to just stroll into the door. Getting to the top of the pile of snarling dogs is always difficult, thus to underestimate the snarling dog at the top of the pile seems rather foolish.
Yet, from Dumbya to Donald, the Dems maintain this foolishness of saying the opponent that has defeated them is an idiot. There are reasons why neither Millionaire Bernie nor Killer Kamala is in the White House today, and Donald Trump is. And yet everyone wants to act as if Donald Trump is the idiot?
It is far better to swing a lead bat in the warmup circle, then a lighter one at the plate, than to do try the reverse. Treat your enemies with respect. Just not too much respect. These people are not Genghis Khan, even if they pretend to be in their masquerades. And as Gandhi once pointed out, even the mighty emperors always fall. Even the real Genghis Khan. But it is still best to prepare with respect.
Anyone who watches Judge Andrew Napolitano’s podcasts knows that many of his regular guests, among whom are former members of the US military and intelligence communities, had been predicting as early as last September, if not before, that a war with Iran was virtually certain. However, that does not mean that the President is making decisions based on sophisticated geopolitical reasoning. If his strings are being pulled by an Israeli puppet master, for instance, then he is merely a player in an insane drama. There’s a reason why so many observers call this the “Epstein War.” Or perhaps his neocon advisers are the ones who are actually calling the shots.
Everything that I see in Trump suggests that he is a narcissistic, demented fool who acts on whims and changes his mind frequently. Unfortunately, with this war against Iran, he has dug himself a hole from which he can see no way of escaping that would not bruise his tender ego, so he just keeps digging deeper. The whole world will suffer as a result.
I am a U.S. citizen and I hate the government in Washington and how it has ruined my country and is bent on ruining the entire planet. I am far from alone in this. You may be right in your estimation of the planning of the attack on Iran, but those of us who pay attention to these things already knew that Iran was on the list of “seven countries” General Clark enumerated years ago. We already knew that the government of the U.S. was not to be trusted on anything. I learned that lesson in the 1960s during the Vietnam War (which the Vietnamese call the “American War”, and they’re right). More than anything I want Iran to prevail and Israel to be wiped off the face of the earth. Your article depresses me because you seem to have just accepted that as a fait accompli.
Mass murderers, the western “elites” are!
Proven million times.
Falling for their show means you lose.
You do not negotiate with such criminals; they got be to be held accountable!!
Those puppets in front of the scenes, and even more those from behind pulling the puppet strings.
Tremendous analysis. People need to wake up even more. This war on Iran would never be happening without the support of the global elite, the Brussels crowd. The same people that want to take away your gas stoves, “protect” you from viruses, and penalize you for your carbon footprint are supporters and enablers of the mass destruction and hyper genocide that is occurring in Iran, not to mention Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. To call Trump a buffoon is to pay him a compliment, and is insulting to true buffoons. Craig Murray nailed it.