Fees on safe passage are the heart of the matter.
It’s All About Fees
Trump believes the MOU allows safe passage to all vessels. Iran has disputed that idea all along.
Iran insists it will collect fees and Trump says no.
When Iran struck at ships trying to pass without paying fees, Trump cancelled Iran’s ability for safe passage.
The result is a two-way blockade again, with military escalations on both sides.
U.S. Launches Strikes on Iran
The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Launches Strikes on Iran in Response to Ship Attacks in Hormuz
The Trump administration pounded sites along Iran’s coast in fresh airstrikes and blocked its ability to sell oil legally on Tuesday in a fierce response to Tehran’s recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The twin moves threatened to unravel an interim peace that took weeks to negotiate and drive up oil prices.
Tehran’s targeting of the vessels in the international waterway through which 20% of the world’s oil used to flow “was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire,” according to a Centcom statement.
Explosions were reported in Sirik, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas, sites in or near the strait, according to Iranian media. The strikes targeted air defense, coastal surveillance, surface-to-air and antiship cruise-missile sites, as well as drone-launch sites and port facilities, according to a senior U.S. official. Abu Musa island and the Tums islands in the strait were also struck, the person said.
The strikes came shortly after the Trump administration revoked a license allowing Iran to sell oil on the open market, eliminating the primary economic benefit for Tehran as part of an interim peace deal with the U.S. and threatening to unravel the agreement after days of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Treasury Department said the June 21 temporary license granted to Iran after several months of war would no longer apply, a reprimand coming hours after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles and drones at ships near the strategic waterway Tuesday. The Treasury allowed for a grace period until July 17 for transactions already authorized under the license.
The revocation is a clear sign that Washington is willing to push back on Iranian military action and won’t offer new concessions to Tehran as part of the interim deal.
It also underscores how many issues the interim deal left open—or open to different interpretation by the two sides. That includes the critical question of who should control the strait and the passage of vessels through it in the coming months.
Meanwhile, people close to the talks say there has been no substantive progress made yet by the U.S. and Iranian teams on a final nuclear agreement, with technical talks on the issue barely commencing. Negotiations are currently on hold for the funeral of Khamenei.
Michael Singh, a former National Security Council director for the Middle East under President George W. Bush, said that Iran’s military attacks in the strait suggested Tehran was angling to get more early benefits from the interim deal than Washington had agreed to. The Treasury Department move is an effort to push back on that.
“So it seems that this construct where we hoped that Iran might yield control of the strait for a series of upfront concessions has only whetted the Iranian appetite for more,” Singh said.
He said all of this bodes ill for the prospect of a final nuclear deal. “I think the chances of getting that are quite slim.”
MOU Ends
War Begins
Trump Broke the Deal
A Friendly Reminder
What Part of This Does Trump Not Understand?
My question is a much to tankers as to Trump. Do any of these tankers think they wont get hit?
We got a somewhat confidently through the USA 250th party and July 4, but the world’s most prominent infinitely expanding ego’s internal psycho dynamics dictate that he must allocate in a way that will now make stock markets and USA (high-temp) summer activities and costs visibly less pleasant. All stock index futures are down this morning. The Dems are a mess, but Trump is still going to make fall season a tight contest, with a glaring sign flashing in every gas pump and energy bill. Even an ostensible fresh Iran deal will now be viewed warily by all. Trump doesn’t like markets (that don’t dance to his fantasies), but companies cannot go bankrupt for his whimsical ways and pressure campaigns. How I wish for a third party, but I know that would just throw things into more instability for awhile!
Trump and Hegseth cannot stand losing. They have quite clearly already lost so will continue making performative attacks or changes to sanctions so they can feed their egos.
A better way would be to create a serious international negotiation process. Any bilateral negotiation with US is just going to be a load of missed promises.
Whilst the regime is appaling to its own people, when faced with international negotiations (e.g. JCPOA) they have acted relatively reliably. It is the US which is the loose cannon here.
Iran can’t just shoot at commercial ships whenever it wants. This is the lesson they need to learn!
Or girls’ schools.
I keep hearing this from leftists and USA haters but don’t see HOW Iran can do this. Ships can just sail near Oman. The Regime can’t just raise a drawbridge.
IF their idea of “closing the Strait” is to threaten to take shots at ships, CentCom will protect the ships, target Iranian assets and kill even more IRGC soldiers. Too bad for their families!
Meanwhile, the US military suffers no losses.
Have you tried swimming out there to get a better look at what they’ve been doing for the last three months?
Must be really hard to be you. Daily life must be an endless puzzle.
Iran is now promising a “crushing response” to the US attack and the war is back on. The US just put sanctions back on Iranian oil, in addition to refusing to pay Iran frozen assets promised upon signing, which means the MOU is dead and there is no longer any reason for Iran to show any restraint in closing not just the Persian Gulf, but (with the help of their Houthi friends) the Bab-al-Mandeb strait as well. Seems likely we will see drone strikes on the Saudi East-West pipeline.
Following the Iran public anger and outrage on display during the Khameini funeral, the Trump administration has put Iran in a situation where it has no incentive anymore to allow ships to transit the strait without paying, so they won’t.
DOW +5K
[ROTFLOL] Good one!
They shot some drones and missiles at a US base in Bahrain. OOOHHH! 🤣
To refresh your memory:
Iran attacks wipe out 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity for up to five years, QatarEnergy CEO says
And according to Iran that was just a warning, after the US attacked their oil-gas infrastructure.
Yikes!
It is amazing that anyone bought the notion that the MOU was anything more than a stalling tactic to get past the 4th of July holiday consumer spending spree.
Add a big cat 5 hurricane in the gulf and you have some explosive oil prices indeed.
It’s not “IF” baby, it’s “WHEN”
So now Trump is bombing Kharg Island? Lindsey Graham must have a full-on boner with his butt plug inserted. We’ll see how Iran responds.
A attack on Saudi desalination plants will render Saudi unlivable.
Same with Israel. Fully 70% of their drinking water is from de-salinization plants.
However, if Iran attacked one or both of those nations water plants? You can pretty much bet on Iran receiving several well targeted nuclear strikes.
Depopulating the Arab peninsula by destroying Saudi water would suit Israel just fine. Refugees would flood into Europe and expanding “greater Israel” would become easier. Better for Iran to attack only Israel. The possibility exists that even after an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran, Iran could fire back several atomic bombs onto Israel. They would be “small” – on the scale of Hiroshima.
And likewise in return on Iran’s water plants. And their electric plants. And their bridges. And IRGC buildings across the land. And maybe the new Ayatollah and the latest leadership.
Want to keep playing Suzie?
Unlike the other Gulf countries, Iran does not depend on water desalinization plants and their electrical grid is highly decentralized.
But yes, the US can absolutely bomb the living shit out of Iran. That was never in dispute.
The issue the US faces is how to bomb the shit out of Iran while preventing Iran from wrecking the global economy by turning all the Gulf nations into unhabitable wasteland. So far the US has not done a good job preventing Iran from targeting the Gulf’s infrastructure.
A military can have 100% tactical victories in the field and yet suffer a total strategic loss at the end. But for some people this concept is too “woke” to be understood.
MAGA idiots really put their foot in it this time! There’s no stick big enough to scrape this one off.
Well the headline was inverted, not that it really matters as the MOU was a non-starter in a million ways…the tankers were hit then the strikers by the U.S. were launched. Even ABC News got the chronology correct. But this was always gonna be the case. Hitting 5 alleged friends in the region demonstrates that Iran is not a country you want to have a nuclear weapon ever and not one you want controlling the strait. The tankers were taking an Omani route…Iran is not in control of the entire strait as it is 21 miles wide…Guess having them acting as such is also no desired globally. But, when you hate Trump that supercedes asking questions such as these.
And I’m on record as calling action on Iran as an own-goal, in the spirit of the World Cup, but the order of today’s actions is sorta important when you said who put their foot in it.
My only question is, if the MOU and alleged deal was so damn advantageous for Iran–and in my estimation it totally was/is–then why the latest preemptive tanker strikes? Do they really think the “safe passage fee” and Iranian-approved-routes only is globally acceptable and accepted. Obviously the ME neighbors whose ships were hit were thinking they could pass safely were wrong and though Arabic/Islamic, they are apparently no friends of Iran.
The F U is and always was riding right under the surface–the same place the ships are headed I guess.
Iran wants tolls and thinks Trump will back down
simple as that
Iran wants tolls, but I’m not sure they really care whether Trump backs down or doesn’t. They think they can withstand any American conventional attacks and they have plenty of targets to attack in the region. I think a significant opinion among the IRGC is that it’s better to continue the war against the ZioAmericans and drive the US out of the region than to have some faux agreement with the Americans (is there any other kind?) that only holds until the next time they’re attacked by The Empire. In other words, “finish the job” isn’t just a slogan battered around DC. Some in Iran say the same thing, especially during the funeral of Khamenei.
The Regime doesn’t have much weapons or ammunition left and with sanctions reimposed, can’t sell their oil, no money to buy more supplies. Ooops..
Let’s take a view of the foundation of the MOU
Does anyone expect USA to:
-facilitate $300B reparations?
-release $100B cash?
-drop all primary and secondary sanctions?
-stop exterminating Arabs in Lebanon?
This war never ended. Trump may just as well have signed a roll of Palace of Versailles toilet paper. (+1 cambleu)
It’s really up to Netanyahu as to when the war ends.
No surprise that Iran attacked more ships. Iran is determined to control the strait. And they are particularly emboldened after the funeral of their leader, whom Trump killed. It’s leverage they intend to maintain.
The MOU is on life support. And even if negotiations somehow continue, they are highly unlikely to achieve anything, other than more US concessions.
Oil inventories continue to drop. As do inventories of gasoline and distillates. Refinery crack spreads are at record levels for this time of year. As several oil executives stated, inventories will become critically low sometime in July. They expect a price spike when that happens.
The question is how long will Trump keep trying to achieve something that will allow him to claim success; and at what point will he eventually just walk away in frustration.
Would love to know your take on the role China is playing here. It seems to be a mystery why they lowered their imports and if they will continue to do so. Did the oil execs take this into account?
Papa dave couple questions
1. since trump is giving such a big gift to the oil companies. Killing clean energy and such. Do you think they are shifting refining to max gas to help keep prices lower for the driver at the expense of diesel fuel who price will get somewhat hidden in the cost of food and such.
2 do you think trumps pump and dump schemes with his announcements scare other traders away and are helping keep the price down due to less middle me so to speak.
3. Also ca is losing its refineries. Since oil is priced globally do you think its a big deal or maybe the refiners in ca are running a big fear scam.
Always enjoy your insight.
“When Iran struck at ships trying to pass without paying fees”
That’s not the reason. Iran was shutting down the U.S.-orchestrated transit of vessels on Oman’s side of the Strait which was an attempt to circumvent Iranian protocol/control.
Aside from practical realities who controls the Strait, this control was implied in the MOU itself:
“Upon the signing of this MoU, the Islamic Republic of Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Oman and vice versa.” No other country is granted rights/responsibility for Strait coordination during the 60 day window (afterwards, expect fees and Iran/Oman coordination, protocol to be determined).
Iran was shutting down the U.S.-orchestrated transit of vessels on Oman’s side of the Strait which was an attempt to circumvent Iranian protocol/control. Of course Iran is going to act upon that ! duh!
The MoU just went the way of the JCPOA: Toilet paper.
Iran will now demand even more concessions and guarantees to re-open the Strait.
Iran to the USA and all Gulf countries.
You don’t expect the United States to live up to any agreement they’ve made, do you?
It’s like watching “The Guns of August – WW3 Edition.”
Just stupidity on top of stupidity squared.
I keep thinking we will be at a whole new level when one of these tanker’s CARGO catches fire. Particularily compressed LNG cargos. I can not fathom how massive that explosion would be.
Therefore, I think their insurance carriers will scream “STOP!!”. As the claim and risks are expoential.
What is Trump planning on doing when he can no longer draw down the SPR come about mid-August?
Blame the godless communists?
The Israelis?
The market always steps in and saves the day.
Oil prices jump 5 percent after U.S. revokes Iran oil sanctions waiver
https://thehill.com/business/5957965-oil-prices-jump-5-percent-after-u-s-revokes-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver/
On this Blog, people determined that Fees were not Tolls. To continue the silly semantics game the US is not dropping bombs, but instead let’s call them “Dice”.
And the 168 murdered 12 year old girls in Minab were an “accident”.
and the 40000 protesters that were killed aren’t “people” but instead “Puppets”.
“40,000”. 100% pure Zio-American bullshit. There were about 3,100 people killed in the January melee. About 300 of them were police. Mike Pompeo admitted that Mossad assets were among the instigators, and both Pompeo and Trump admitted that the instigators had been armed by the US and Israel. The Zio-Americans also snuck in thousands of Starlink terminals to help the coup plotters coordinate after the government shut down the internet. Unfortunately for the instigators, the Iranian government broke the Starlink encryption and found most of the terminals. It was yet another typical American attempt at “regime change” or “color revolution” – which they’ve been doing for decades in many countries. Then they feed their propaganda (like “40,000”) to the NYT, CNN and WaPo and people like you lap it up.
So the Islamic propaganda machine is calling the 40000 dead “puppets” — got it.
What are you, Sean Hannity?
Once we recognize the troll behavior, the best move is to not feed them.
Blue Oyster Cult was saying 40,000 everyday a half century ago.
You KNOW so much! What are your sources? IRGC radio? 🤣
A statistic even. Definitely not a tragedy. (Sarc)
“You’ll never grow up to be a big rock star/Celebrated victim of your fame/They’ll just cut our wrists like cheap coupons/And say that death was on sale today
And when we were good you just closed your eyes/So when we are bad we’ll scar your minds/But I’m not a slave to a God that doesn’t exist/And I’m not a slave to a world that doesn’t give a shit
The death of one is a tragedy/The death of one is a tragedy/The death of one is a tragedy/The death of millions’ just a statistic…
Fight, fight, fight, fight…”
https://youtu.be/Ru9tmuVN1ns
I’m still hung up on the idea that wookies live on Endor…
“ On this Blog, people determined that Fees were not Tolls.”
Nope. It’s Iran that is talking about fees (which would be legal) vs tolls (not legal). The folks here merely discuss what Iran is saying. No one here gave Iran the idea.
“ To continue the silly semantics game the US is not dropping bombs, but instead let’s call them “Dice”.”
Actually, it’s Trump who called bombs “love taps”. Yes, that is silly.
No one here gave him that idea either.
You should read the OP and the comments. Yes, people here did say fees were not tolls.
Has taco gone off script? Whatever happened to taco Tuesday? Is he doing what he can to drive stocks down so his buddies can buy cheaper and make another quick $billion or so?
Well the world economy will suffer dearly now (oil inventories anyone), but that was always the plan (destroy the other economically) – from both sides.
Agreed, the inflation risks – and range bound 10-yr – are about to breakout.
I’ve been a PM of plenty of money. (>$1.2 Bil.). If you were running a bond fund woul yu increase duration &/or take down more long bonds? Hell no! Your first objective is “live to fight another day” and screw that undefinable/volatile inflation risk. Which is how these things become “reflexive” (as Soros calls it), or self-fullfiling. When your – and others – choices of allocating capital change so to does the market-clearing price. For bonds that’d be the interest rate.
Trump is finding out the hard way that short of a massive ground invasion requiring a minimum of several hundred thousand troops to fight in an environment that would make Afghanistan look a picnic, there is no military solution to this conflict. He will have to make serious and genuine concessions to Iran of the Strait will remain closed. The fact that he murdered the entire old guard “moderate” leadership make things even more difficult for him.
The JCPOA came to be in the first place because the US leadership at the time concluded that there was no viable military solution to the Iran issue, so they opted for the least terrible alternative possible. Today the military reality of the Gulf situation has not changed, but thanks to the current administration, the JCPOA is but toilet paper now and Iran will not agree to return to the status quo. The only realistic solution is a political settlement a lot less favorable to the US than the JCPOA was, which includes Iran’s ownership of the Strait.
It did not have to be this way, but the US electorate, US Supreme court and US congress through apathy, ineptitude and sheer negligence, allowed this shit show to happen, so now they will have to deal with the consequences.
This is America’s “Suez Canal” moment.
Maybe that’s why Leavitt was saying that Gen z and younger are lazy shiftless bums and should go to Iran or Cuba. Draft is probably going to be the suggestion for all the unemployed youths.
yep traverse any American city and one can see numerous ‘fodder’ roaming the streets
She’s probably running down the youth to make herself feel better about marrying a dinosaur.
Oh wow. Dude is 60 and she is 28. Daddy issues much? “Oh Nicholas, you really know how to fill out those Depends”. Seriously, how in the f do.you even relate to someone that much younger than you as your wife and not your daughter. Ew.
Gotta stick with the 1/2 + 7 formula.
The politician’s and their kids should get drafted first. And lead from the front.
“…there is no military solution to this conflict.”
There is the solution of bringing the thousands troops and hundred billion worth of equipment back home to the hemisphere we actually live in. And mind our own business. Nothing would bring peace to the Middle East quicker.
That is a political solution.