Despite a booming stock market and improving inflation numbers, the public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since the years just after the pandemic and increasingly concerned about the cost of everyday goods, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
The result: continued deeply negative approval numbers for President Donald Trump yet only a modest advantage for Democrats when it comes to the public's preference for control of Congress.
The survey of 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found that 61% of the public is pessimistic about the current state of the economy and about the outlook for the future. That is the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just emerging from the pandemic-era inflation. Only 25% are optimistic about the economy now and for the future.
Here are the full results from the survey
"More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle,'' said Micah Roberts, partner at Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters for the survey.
In response to higher prices, 47% of the public report cutting back on essential items, like food and medical care, up 6 points from the April survey.
Two-thirds say they are reducing purchases of nonessentials, like eating out and entertainment, up 5 points. Americans also say they are reducing travel and using credit cards in greater percentages than they did in April.
These numbers come amid a recent decline in oil and gasoline prices and stand in contrast to steady and modest growth reported in national retail sales.
But the national numbers could be driven by spending from the wealthy. The All-America survey finds that 60% of those with incomes below $30,000 are reducing their outlays for essentials, compared with just 35% of those with incomes above $100,000.
The survey's Democratic and Republican pollsters both say the modest drop in gasoline prices over the past several weeks is not enough to offset the lingering effects of both the recent and past surges in prices.
"People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that's recent enough in memory that it still hurts and it still drives a lot of anger,'' said Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey. "When gas prices drop 50 cents for a month, that's just not enough to make up the difference."
Low marks on the economy
Trump's approval ratings remain deeply underwater, though largely unchanged from the CNBC April survey.
The latest survey found the president's net approval rating at 40%, with 59% disapproving, 1 point worse than the April survey. Sixty percent disapprove of his handling of the economy, compared with 38% approving. Both changes are within the poll's margin of error but, at -22, place the president the most underwater he has been in his political career.
The survey also found the public disapproving of Trump's handling of the war with Iran by a 63% to 35% margin, and his handling of inflation and the cost of living by a 68% to 31% margin.
Still the Democratic Party has just a 4-point advantage on congressional preference, unchanged from April, as it appears the party is only benefiting modestly from the dissatisfaction with the economy and the Iran war.
"It means Democrats have an advantage at this point now, five months out from the election, but it's not an overwhelming advantage," Campbell said. "It doesn't point to a wave at the moment and I think that's what my baseline is."
Both pollsters pointed to a sharply divided electorate being "locked into" their parties and reluctant to switch sides however much concern they may have with the economy. The survey found, for example, partisans digging in and increasing their support for their chosen party compared with April, largely offsetting each other and leading to no change in the overall preference for congressional control.
It's also an environment where each party has been defining the other by their extremes and having some success doing so.
Half of all voters say they are unlikely to support a democratic socialist candidate, with 32% saying they would support one. An endorsement by the president is somewhat worse, with 52% saying they would not support such a candidate. Worst of all are self-described MAGA candidates, which the survey found 57% of the public said they would be unlikely to support.
Split on the issues
On the most pressing issues, both parties have their own advantages.
Democrats have a 7-point lead on the most important concern, the cost of food and groceries, and a 3-point lead on the second-most important issue, "protecting democracy."
But Republicans lead by 22 points on the third issue — immigration and border security — the largest advantage on any of the 10 issues on the list. That's followed by a 6-point Democratic lead on housing and an 18-point advantage on the cost of healthcare.
Democrats, independents and women, especially women 18-49, put the cost of food as the top issue. So do white voters and voters of color, along with voters in all income groups, except the very top income group who single out "protecting democracy."
Republicans are the only major demographic group for whom immigration is the top issue. Meanwhile, voters aged 18-34 elevate housing to the top spot, with 46% saying it's a major issue. The cost of food for the youngest cohort is a distant second at 33%.
Among the starkest divisions in the survey are those surrounding the war with Iran, which has lost support compared with the April survey.
Just 48% of the public believe the military action against Iran is worth it to disrupt the country's ability to develop nuclear weapons, down from 53% in April. Half the country say it's not worth it, up from 44% in the prior survey. The president's net approval on dealing with Iran fell to -28, 3 points worse than the prior survey.
Trump is underwater with parts of his own party on the Iran war. Just 47% of non-MAGA Republicans, who represent about a third of the GOP, approve of the president's handling of Iran, with 50% approving. By contrast, 86% of MAGA Republicans support the president's handling of the issue.
Facts Only
* 61% of the public is pessimistic about the current state and future outlook of the economy.
* Only 25% of the public are optimistic about the economy now or for the future.
* 47% of the public report cutting back on essential items like food and medical care, an increase of 6 points from the April survey.
* Two-thirds of the public are reducing purchases of nonessentials, such as eating out and entertainment, an increase of 5 points.
* Americans are reducing travel and using credit cards in greater percentages than in April.
* 60% of those with incomes below $30,000 are reducing outlays for essentials, compared to 35% of those above $100,000.
* The public does not believe a Democratic socialist candidate is likely to be supported by 32%.
* 48% of the public believe the military action against Iran is not worth it to disrupt nuclear weapon development, down from 53% in April.
* The president's net approval rating is 40%, with 59% disapproval.
* 60% disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy compared to 38% approving.
Executive Summary
Despite a booming stock market and improving inflation figures, public sentiment regarding the economy remains deeply pessimistic, mirroring levels seen just after the pandemic. A survey of 1,000 adults nationwide found that 61% are pessimistic about the current economic state and future outlook, which is the highest percentage since December 2023. Only 25% express optimism about the economy now or in the future. While some indicators suggest a moderation in spending—with 47% cutting back on essentials like food and medical care, and two-thirds reducing nonessential purchases—this trend exists despite a recent decline in oil and gasoline prices. The perceived price increases are persistent, as pollsters indicated that modest drops in fuel costs are insufficient to counteract lingering price inflation experienced over the last year and a half.
President Trump's approval ratings remain low, showing a net approval of 40%, with 59% disapproval, which is one point worse than the previous survey. Disapproval regarding his handling of the economy is higher (60%) than approval (38%). Public dissatisfaction extends to specific policies, notably the war with Iran and inflation. While the Democratic party maintains a slight advantage in congressional preference, this lead is modest, as partisan polarization appears to be keeping voters largely within their existing party affiliations rather than prompting a significant shift based on economic concerns alone.
Full Take
The narrative presents a dissonance between macroeconomic indicators (booming stock market, moderate inflation) and psychological reality (deep public pessimism). The data suggests that economic relief is not translating into confidence; instead, sustained cost-of-living pressures are overriding superficial positive developments. The discrepancy between spending behaviors (cutting back on nonessentials) and the lingering memory of past price surges implies that real purchasing power remains severely constrained, regardless of reported retail sales growth.
A critical pattern emerges in how political dissatisfaction is channeled: while economic concerns lead to general pessimism, the specific focus shifts based on partisan alignment and existing grievances—immigration for Republicans versus cost of food/groceries for Democrats/women. The data indicates that political polarization functions as a powerful stabilizing force, locking partisans into their preferred camps irrespective of broad economic anxieties. The division over foreign policy actions, particularly concerning Iran, demonstrates an asymmetry where approval ratings are deeply segmented along ideological lines (e.g., 86% of MAGA Republicans support the president's stance versus 47% of non-MAGA Republicans). This suggests that emotional resonance, often tied to identity and specific geopolitical conflicts, holds greater sway over political preference than purely objective economic metrics in determining public mood.
The implications suggest that addressing future public confidence requires decoupling economic narratives from polarized identity politics, moving beyond simple cost comparisons to address the shared, persistent memory of inflation. The pattern observed is that when tangible economic facts are presented alongside identity-based fault lines, the most resistant finding is not empirical data itself, but the ingrained partisan commitment to existing ideological structures.
Bridge questions: If spending habits continue to contract despite moderate growth, what structural factors are causing this divergence between macro performance and micro sentiment? How might policy framing shift—away from partisan cost battles and toward shared existential security concerns—alter the capacity for voters to reconcile economic reality with political preference? What mechanism allows strong partisan alignment to effectively neutralize broad economic dissatisfaction?
Sentinel — Human
This text reads like a synthesis of established public opinion polling data, employing a balanced structure to explore economic anxiety and political polarization rather than presenting raw, uncontextualized facts.