Late peak demand sees container spot rates to the US surge
Container spot freight rates on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades completely diverged this week, with ...
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July saw a new record for container shipments in a calendar month, according to the latest data from Container Trades Statistics (CTS), which recorded 17.3m teu shipped, around 25,000 teu above the record set in May.
“July was not only a standout month in isolation. Year-to-date, global volumes are 5.1% higher than in the same period in 2025, while July 2026 itself was 4.5% higher, year on year,” CTS said.
“With volumes continuing to reach unprecedented levels despite considerable market disruption, the underlying strength of global container trade remains clear,” it added.
Sub-Saharan Africa was yet again the standout performer in terms of percentage growth, with year-to-date imports up 14%, while Europe was up 6.1% for the same period.
However, one of the more perplexing trends in recent weeks has been the way transpacific spot freight rates have shown continued strength, despite a relatively weak demand picture – North American imports from the Far East in July stood at 2.23m teu, 4.2% up on the same month in 2025, which followed a very flat June in which 2026 volumes were just 0.7% higher than June 2025.
However, July’s price index on the Far East-North America corridor jumped 46.5%, compared with July 2025.
There were several factors at play during what transpired to be an extended peak season that had showed its first signs of life in early April, but the reality for US importers shippers today is that some – particularly on the east coast and continuing to use all-water services – is that spot rates are once more approaching all-time highs.
“Average spot rates from the Far East to the US east coast continue their ascent following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in February, climbing a further 25% since early July,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.
“Spot rates are now just 14% shy of the Covid peak on 1 January 2022. It is unlikely we will see the market exceed that record-breaking level but it cannot be ruled out, and the fact it is even a topic for discussion shows how extraordinary the situation is,” he said.
Xeneta’s short-term rate XSI index last week recorded a spot rate of $10,910 per 40ft from the Far East to the US east coast.
“Average spot rates into the US east coast have already sailed past the Red Sea crisis peak by around $1,000 per 40ft. The growth in spot rates into US east coast has eased, but with Golden Week on the horizon [early October], further upward pressure should be expected,” Mr Sand added.
Analysts at Sea-Intelligence Consulting this week argued that the recent transpacific spot pricing strength was largely the result of judicious capacity management by carriers.
“If we look at the transpacific trade in its totality, by adding the east and west coast, we find capacity has grown a total of 2.5% from 2024 to 2026, when we look at July + August. This equals an annual average growth rate of just 1.2%.
“Using the WCI spot rate index, we can also calculate the average spot rate for July + August and compare 2024 with 2026.
“Here we find the rate in 2026 is 8% lower in 2026 than in 2024 for the west coast. For the east coast, the rate is 9% lower.
“These data do therefore not imply a structurally strong container demand development on the transpacific in 2026,” Sea-Intelligence added.
A reverse look at how Drewry’s World Container index for July this year appears to support this analysis. After carriers imposed a general rate increase (GRI) on the trade at the beginning of July, until the end of the month the WCI spot rate on both Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York corridors was essentially flat, and even declined softly over the course of July.
However, it rose again at the beginning of August, after the partial success of another GRI, while a 5% increase to the US west coast and 3% to the east coast, recorded on the WCI last week, was spurred by a 1 September GRI.
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