It begins not with missiles but with cutter ships. One morning, dozens of Chinese coast guard vessels start conducting “routine customs inspections” of merchant ships approaching Taiwan’s major ports. Chinese civil aviation authorities begin to demand manifests from flights entering and leaving Taiwan. Beijing insists it is merely asserting existing Chinese customs law, which claims the right to r...
This analysis presents a compelling case for how China might use gray-zone tactics to coerce Taiwan without triggering a conventional war. The strongest version of this narrative highlights China’s strategic patience, leveraging economic interdependence and incremental coercion to reshape the status quo while shifting the burden of escalation onto the U.S. The article effectively steelmans China’s approach, acknowledging its subtlety and the U.S.’s lack of preparedness for such scenarios. Howeve...