President Trump’s fiscal year 2027 budget is built on a single, load-bearing bet: that the U.S. economy can grow at 3% annually for the next decade. The White House says that growth will flood federal coffers with new tax revenue and eventually bend the national debt, now sitting at over $39 trillion, onto a downward path. It is an optimistic vision. It is also, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell...
The strongest version of this narrative acknowledges that the Trump administration’s budget is a high-stakes gamble on sustained economic growth as a solution to unsustainable debt. It gives credit to the White House for proposing a bold fiscal strategy and to critics like Kent Smetters and the CRFB for rigorously stress-testing its assumptions. The debate hinges on whether 3% growth is achievable—and whether its benefits can outweigh the compounding costs of servicing $39 trillion in debt.
Patt...