Taiwan’s population is projected to shrink by almost half over the next five decades, intensifying labor shortages and placing a growing drag on economic growth as the technology-intensive economy confronts a rapidly aging workforce.
The population is expected to fall to 12.15 million by 2075, a 48 percent decline from this year, National Development Council projections released yesterday showed.
The decline would fundamentally alter Taiwan’s workforce. From 2037, more than half of the working-age population is projected to be aged between 45 and 64, signaling the end of an era when the economy could rely on a relatively large labor force.
Photo: CNA
The shift threatens to challenge Taiwan’s growth model, which depends on a broad manufacturing workforce and a growing supply of highly skilled workers to support its semiconductor and artificial intelligence industries.
A shrinking pool of workers could make recruitment increasingly difficult, while a growing elderly population would add pressure on social spending and public finances.
The projections also point to a deeper demographic problem — Taiwan is not only losing its population, but failing to replenish it, the council said.
It lowered its long-term fertility assumptions after the fertility rate fell to a record low 0.695 last year, significantly below previous estimates.
The number of women aged 20 to 49 has declined since peaking in 2005, while the proportion of married women in that age group has also fallen.
The shrinking pool of potential mothers is making a sustained recovery in births increasingly difficult, it said.
Taiwan’s population is projected to fall below 20 million in 2045, dropping to 19.98 million.
People aged 65 or older are expected to account for 37 percent of the population, while the working-age population would shrink to 57.9 percent and children to just 5.2 percent, the council said.
By 2075, the imbalance would be even more pronounced, with older people projected to comprise 52.9 percent of the population, working-age people 42.3 percent and children 4.8 percent, it said.
The dependency ratio — the number of children and elderly people relative to those of working age — is projected to rise from 55.2 dependents for every 100 working-age people to 136.6 by 2075, the council said.
The potential support ratio is expected to fall below one, suggesting less than one working-age person for every person aged 65 or older, it said.
The government is preparing the economy for a permanently smaller workforce. It has established a population strategy task force, and in May launched 18 measures covering childbirth support, childcare, education, workplace policies and housing.
Additional policy packages would target elderly people, talent development across all age groups and the recruitment of overseas talent, the council said.
For businesses, the implications extend beyond hiring. Companies are likely to face greater pressure to raise labor force participation among elderly people, attract workers from overseas, and accelerate automation and productivity gains.
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Facts Only
* Taiwan's population is projected to shrink by almost half over the next five decades.
* The population is expected to fall to 12.15 million by 2075, a 48 percent decline from this year.
* From 2037, more than half of the working-age population is projected to be aged between 45 and 64.
* The demographic shift threatens Taiwan’s growth model dependent on a broad manufacturing workforce.
* A shrinking worker pool could make recruitment difficult.
* The growing elderly population will increase pressure on social spending and public finances.
* Fertility rate fell to a record low of 0.695 last year.
* The number of women aged 20 to 49 has declined since peaking in 2005.
* Taiwan's population is projected to fall below 20 million in 2045, dropping to 19.98 million.
* By 2075, older people are projected to comprise 52.9 percent of the population, working-age people 42.3 percent, and children 4.8 percent.
* The dependency ratio is projected to rise from 55.2 dependents for every 100 working-age people to 136.6 by 2075.
* The potential support ratio is expected to fall below one by 2075.
Executive Summary
Taiwan's population is projected to decrease by nearly half over the next five decades, leading to labor shortages and impacting economic growth as the technology-intensive economy faces an aging workforce. Projections indicate the population will fall to 12.15 million by 2075, a decline of 48 percent from the current level. This demographic shift is expected to fundamentally alter the workforce structure; by 2037, more than half of the working-age population is anticipated to be between 45 and 64 years old.
This shrinking labor pool threatens Taiwan's growth model, which relies on a broad manufacturing workforce and skilled talent for its semiconductor and AI sectors. The decline creates challenges related to recruitment and increases pressure on social spending due to an aging demographic. Furthermore, fertility rates have fallen to a record low of 0.695, suggesting a difficulty in replenishing the population. Demographic projections show that by 2045, the population will drop below 20 million. The dependency ratio is projected to rise significantly, increasing from 55.2 dependents per 100 working-age people to 136.6 by 2075, and the potential support ratio is expected to fall below one.
Full Take
The narrative of demographic decline in Taiwan presents a structural challenge where the economic model—which favors a large, dynamic labor supply for high-tech industries—is fundamentally mismatched with shifting demographic realities. The core pattern observed is the tension between an established growth paradigm and emerging demographic constraints. The projection of the dependency ratio soaring to 136.6 by 2075 signals a systemic strain on public finances, suggesting that current fiscal structures are ill-equipped for this rapid aging. The focus on failing to replenish the population, evidenced by fertility rates, shifts the problem from one of managing an aging society to one of managing demographic contraction itself.
The interplay between economic necessity and demographic reality highlights several unstated assumptions: the dependence on a large workforce implies a certain level of future state capacity that is now being challenged; the policy response involves managing decline rather than growth; and international geopolitical tensions are interwoven with domestic concerns, as evidenced by concurrent reports regarding increased activity near Taiwan's waters. This points to a situation where internal demographic pressures are amplified by external strategic competition. The implication for human agency lies in navigating systemic constraints: whether adaptation through automation and migration can effectively reconcile economic needs with the realities of reduced demographic potential, or if these forces will exacerbate existing social inequalities.
Bridge Questions: If sustained low fertility continues, what specific structural shifts in social safety nets and labor market policies would be necessary to maintain economic viability without relying on unsustainable immigration rates? How do the geopolitical pressures surrounding Taiwan intersect with the internal imperative for demographic stability, and can a unified strategy address both simultaneously? What alternative visions of national success exist that decouple prosperity from sheer population size?