You just started college. Congratulations, you are now in charge of your own future, facing the question of how you will invest a chunk of time and significant money getting ready for the long haul of adult life.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has some thoughts. Its new projections put job growth at 5.9 million over the next decade, roughly a third of the 16.7 million jobs added over the previous 10 years. That slowdown is mostly demography: Fewer working-age people mean fewer jobs. But composition matters more to you than the total does. Here is what I would tell you over coffee.
1. The only certainty is uncertainty. BLS is simply making its best guess based on how technology has changed in the past. The rise of AI may very well make that history a poor guide to the future. We simply don’t have enough information to know for sure. This is also why the agency leaves out the effects of AI altogether and does not factor it into the projection. It’s better to leave something out that you aren’t sure of than to pretend to know something that you don’t. Take these numbers as only a rough guideline of what the labor market may look like in the future rather than an exact science. Don’t decide on a major just because one job happens to rank near the top of the list.
2. Percentage growth is not job growth. Solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow 36.5 percent—from a tiny base, adding 11,300 jobs over 10 years. Wind turbine service technicians are projected to grow 29.5 percent in 10 years, or by 3,500 jobs. Together, these are fewer than 15,000 positions in a 176-million-job economy. Nurse practitioners will grow 41.0 percent and add 137,800 positions in that time. Percentages tell you an occupation is growing, not whether there’s a job in it for you.
3. Start caring about care. Healthcare and social assistance are projected to add 2.2 million jobs, about 37 percent of all projected growth. Services for the elderly and disabled will add 625,400 positions, more than any other category. Beware: Home care pays poorly and turns over fast, while nurse practitioners and health services managers earn well and need graduate training. The career scaffolding between them is unusually sturdy, with low entry barriers and employer-supported upskilling.
4. The knowledge economy is facing a conundrum. The American middle class has leaned on knowledge work for good-paying, benefit-rich jobs. That’s changing. BLS projects office and administrative support will decline 4 percent and shed 752,100 jobs. Real-time payroll data show employment for younger workers in the most AI-exposed occupations running about 19 percent below projections relative to peers in less-exposed jobs. Computer and mathematical occupations still will grow through 2035, but the job postings will tend to look more like midcareer roles than first jobs. It’s the same old story: You can’t get the job without experience, and you can’t get experience without the job.
5. Ask what the first job does, not what the field pays. Find alumni in your area of professional interest who are three to five years into their careers. Ask what they did in 2023 and what a new hire in that role does now. If the answer is “less,” your degree alone won’t qualify you for the work. Better to learn that now than after four precious years and tens of thousands of dollars.
6. Choose the pivot skills. Nobody knows which occupations will be reorganized by 2035, including the BLS. Focus on what transfers: critical thinking, writing and speaking, mathematical reasoning, collaboration, and reliability. Employers have complained about shortages in these areas for decades, and they are the things AI does least well.
7. Don’t tell. Show. As the diploma’s signaling value weakens, demonstrated skills matter more: internships, co-ops, a portfolio, and mentors or supervisors who will vouch for your ability and diligence. Work-based learning and personal connections belong at the center of your degree.
8. Diversify your knowledge. For 150 years, we trained people to do specific tasks in factories and offices. AI is poised to take over that work. The more rule bound the task, the easier it is to automate. What’s left are jobs that rely on judgment under uncertainty—picking up a jagged problem and developing bespoke solutions. Strong in math or spatial reasoning? Great! Get some humanities or social sciences experience. Curiosity is a qualification.
9. All jobs are local. National averages won’t help you find your first job. What counts is the region or city you choose. Start checking state and local workforce agencies now for openings, industry concentrations, and wage trends wherever you think you’ll land.
10. Be not afraid. You live inside a dynamic, $30 trillion economy employing 170 million people. Your odds of serious material deprivation are remote, but your brain doesn’t know that; it was built for a scarcity that no longer applies. Relative to most of the world, you’re a trust-fund baby whose material needs are met, so let yourself dream a little.