[This Iran war post is yet again launching before complete. I expect to be done by 8:00 AM EDT so early arrivals, please refresh this page and reskim then]
It is difficult to adequately describe the depth of denialism, not just among the addled, religiously possessed, diehard jingoistic and otherwise self-blinded decision-makers among the belligerents, but also interested parties with the power to check them, starting with investors and the Gulf States. They seem unable to process what is happening right before their eyes.
As we have discussed before, the influential are also so deeply accustomed to living in the symbol world of spreadsheets, PowerPoint, messaging and financial market that even those who recognize that there is no prospect for the end of the war in sight, which is a best case scenario, that almost to a person they underestimate what comes next, as in pervasive real world shortages. A continuing large reduction inn petroleum and gas and related products like urea, sulphur, plastics, are not just crises in and further catastrophic knock-ons, such as high food costs (and scarcity due to distribution issues) and shortages of medications that depend on on petrochemical inputs and/or cold chain transportation.1 At best, they seem unconsciously to rely on the faith that their money and their connections will spare them.
We’ll turn first to the kinetic conflict, which Trump has linked to his market-and-public manipulating negotiation fakery. He pretends that the war will end if Iran capitulates negotiates, which is simply not going to happen. Yet it is not just loyal mouthpieces like Fox that are uncritically repeating his barker’s patter. Pervasively, mainstream outlets are also taking up Trump’s messaging with far too little in the way of sanity checks. This is a marked contrast with his first term, when due to impeachments and Russiagate, his legitimacy was sufficiently in doubt that much of the media delighted in calling out his howlers. So much for journalistic integrity.
Why, for instance, does it take a not-widely followed independent site like indi.ca to call out the irretrievably decrepit state of US weaponry? Its critique goes beyond even the solid and very well documented ones by Brian Berletic, of how the US military is built for profit, not purpose, which is how we can spend such eye-watering amounts and yet have a country we like to depict as too economically second-tier (despite being a superpower) of being well ahead of the US in many critical weapons categories, from air defense to signal jamming to hypersonic missiles to drones, as well as having adapted to and extensively battle-tested how to wage war in the new world of ISR?
Consider the key points from America’s Military Is Never Coming Back From This:
‘America’ is a good military like Cristiano Ronaldo is a good footballer. They was, but their careers are over in Saudi Arabia. And whereas Ronaldo is still in good shape (but a bad person), America is in terrible shape (and bad people). Vital links in their kill chain (refuelers and control planes) are decades old and being put out of their misery by Iran…
People really do not understand how old and crustified the US military is. This is not your grandfather’s US Army, or more precisely it is, without many updates since. They’re still relying on primordial technology like the E-3 and KC-135 that have no modern replacements. Every new weapon these corruption engineers have come up with (like littoral combat ships or the F-35) have either failed or flailed in the field.
People talk about how Iran is a ‘second-tier military’ but they ain’t Iraq and this ain’t Desert Storm. This is Desert Shitstorm and Iran is not just a peer military to ‘America’s’, they are demonstrably superior. Just look at the scoreboard, which isn’t school massacres but military targets. Behold, then, ‘American’ airframes burning in the sun while Iran’s rockets are safe underground. The White Empire stood astride the Middle East like Colossus, but now they lie there in a wreck, colossal morons.
What I want you to understand is that the US military is never coming back from this. There are no modern replacements for these refuelers and control systems. The NGAS is a render and the E-7 Wedgetail was cancelled. They simply don’t make ‘em like they used to anymore. As the meme template goes, “My father is a builder. We were in [Prince Sultan Air Base] I asked him what it would cost to build [an E-3 Sentry] today. I will never forget his answer… ‘We can’t, we don’t know how to do it.’”
Taking these planes to a war of choice was like taking Grandpa’s ‘65 Mustang to a demolition derby and getting your nose out of joint. The White press keeps saying these planes are worth millions or billions which is missing the point. They cannot make these planes anymore, these assets are effectively priceless.…
People really do not appreciate how depreciated the US military is. To rust and dust and gone bust. Some of their vaunted aircraft carriers are supposed to be retired already, they just keep extending their retirement dates because they have no replacements. This moves stuff around on paper, but doesn’t make these lumbering beasts any more limber.
Please take a detour to read the rest of this wonderfully written and important article in full.
The Financial Times’s lead item was its interview with the American mad kingm. From Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’:
Donald Trump has said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, as the US sends thousands of troops to the Middle East.
The US president told the FT in an interview on Sunday that his “preference would be to take the oil”, comparing the potential move to Venezuela, where the US intends to control the oil industry “indefinitely” following its capture of strongman leader Nicolás Maduro in January….
Trump said: “To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people.”
Such a move would involve seizing Kharg Island, through which most of Iran’s oil is exported.
Trump has been beefing up US forces in the region, with the Pentagon ordering the deployment of 10,000 troops trained to seize and hold land. About 3,500 troops arrived in the region on Friday, including roughly 2,200 marines. Another 2,200 marines are en route, while thousands of troops from the 82nd Airborne Division have also been ordered to the region.
But an assault on the export hub would be risky, raising the chances of more US casualties and extending the cost and duration of the war.
“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the FT. “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.”
Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”
The convention for interviews of Super Important People is not to savage them in the piece proper, and the pink paper fell in line, with only very tame interjections, such as oil prices being high. My beef is that pretty much all of the rest of the media has been treating these remarks with respect, as opposed to yet more evidence that Trump needs to be escorted from office in a straitjacket.
Now admittedly there are bizarre pretend meetings going on that are inaccurately depicted as negotiations or sometimes more accurately, diplomacy, among Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkiye. Per an update from Aljazeera:
Pakistan says it is ready to host “meaningful” talks to end the United States-Israeli war on Iran after diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye gathered in Islamabad in a bid to de-escalate the conflict.
The two-day talks in the Pakistani capital began on Sunday and are being led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar, who said after the meeting that they had covered possible ways to bring an early and permanent end to the war in the region as well as potential US-Iran talks in Islamabad.
Anyone who has been paying attention will quickly recognize this exercise as absurd, a Western Asia version of Emmanuel Macron acting as if he can help end the war in Ukraine. First, Iran has repeatedly said no way no how is it negotiating. Any meaningful talks, even if indirect, have to be with the belligerents. They have demonstrated themselves to be utterly untrustworthy so there is no point in talking. Iran knows it has to prevail militarily and break their will or alternatively, effect regime change, since this war was already unpopular in the US and will rapidly become more so as citizens don’t just suffer higher costs but business failures, job losses, and inability to get key medications.2 Unfortunately, none of these bad outcomes are set to kick in fast enough to pressure this Administration soon enough to limit the carnage.
A second reason these countries talking among themselves is silly is because Saudi Arabia is a belligerent. It is not only supporting the US but Western media reports say it along with the other Gulf States are looking at more overt and substantial backing of the US. Pakistan and Saudi Arabia also have entered into a mutual defense and security pact, so Pakistan can hardly be seen as independent. Turkiye hosts a massive and essential US air base at Incirlik. So who are we kidding? This looks like a show organized to assist Trump, one imagines at a minimum to con inattentive traders and investors that an end to the war might be in sight so as to keep them from bidding oil prices up to where they ought to be.
To return to reality, Larry Johnson’s Donald Trump’s Imaginary Iranian Friends, provides an update on how the US and Israel keep ignoring Iranian warning and put their hand on the escalatory hot stove, producing predictable damage:
Despite Trump’s insistence that Iran is eager to negotiate, he is lying…
Trump’s claim that Iran is running out of missiles also is not true. As I am writing this, Iran has launched three waves of launches to the Negev in under an hour.
In response to Donald Trump’s various threats, a spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya HQ recently said:
➡The U.S. president has threatened that if Iran doesn’t reopen the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. forces will target Iranian power plants.
➡Tehran insists the Strait is only restricted to hostile traffic and remains under Iran’s control; safe passage continues under strict rules.
➡If the U.S. strikes Iranian power plants, Iran will:
- Fully close the Strait of Hormuz until damaged facilities are rebuilt.
- Target all Israeli energy, ICT, and infrastructure assets.
- Destroy regional companies with U.S. shareholders.
- Target power plants in countries hosting U.S. bases.
➡Iran says it is ready for a major campaign to eliminate all U.S. economic interests in West Asia.
➡While Tehran did not start this conflict, any attack on Iranian infrastructure will trigger relentless retaliation against U.S. and allied energy, oil, and industrial targets in the region.
The US and Israel ignored Iran’s warning and attacked… and, as promised, Iran responded forcefully….Satellite data from NASA has reportedly detected an active fire at the Doha West Power and Water Desalination Station, the country’s largest combined power and water plant…..
The facility produces 2,400MW of power and around 110 million gallons of water per day, making up about 38.5% of Kuwait’s desalination output. With around 90% of Kuwait’s drinking water coming from desalination, this damage will quickly put pressure on the country’s water supply.
New satellite images also show damage following Iranian missile strikes on a US airbase in Sheikh Isa, Bahrain:
— US Army Air Base Radar Maintenance Shed Hit
— Destroying the spy plane hangars.
— Destruction of the drone hangar.
— Destruction of the equipment depot….
According to Haaretz, the success rate of Iranian missiles in Israel has reached 80%, and the missiles are not being intercepted.
Iran is not alone. Hezbollah also is fully engaged in fighting Israel. Hezbollah announced 70 operations on 29 March against Israeli forces, sites, settlements, and military infrastructure.
Hindustan Times suggests the latest ferocious warnings from Iran might have put Trump on the back foot, at least for now:
The entire video is worth a watch. It includes Trump claiming he achieved regime change, as well as a bizarre topic change to the state of ballroom develoment at 5:45. In Neuro Linguistic Programming, this is called a pattern interrupt (“Oh look at that bird!”) but here is just deranged. Trump finally does try to connect the dots by claiming he is ahead of schedule on both projects. And at 12:10, Trump says Iran agreed to most of the 15 points in the surrender document.
However, to counter the Hindustan Times headline claim, the press has provided a lot of coverage to how the US has moved forces and assets to the theater, with a repeatedly announced threat to launch a raid or ground operations. How could the US possibly climb down from that?3
A bit earlier, Professor Marandi and Glenn Diesen discussed where further escalation might go:
Because Marandi and Diesen cover some familiar ground, it’s easy to miss some important new observations from Marandi, such as:
So any US attack on the mainland or on the islands isn’t is going to lead to greater disaster because you’ll have further destruction, much greater destruction.
And that means that the oil crisis and the energy crisis and the uh petrochemical crisis and the fertilizer crisis will be permanent.
And later, on other escalation options if the US tries to invade:
We are still not very much uh up the escalation ladder. Yemen has joined but its targets are so far limited. Iraq has been involved for weeks now, but again, it can go much further. There’s talk that, for example, the Iraqis may take Kuwait. They could enter the Arabian Peninsula. Excuse me. Yemen, too, could enter Saudi Arabia and of course close the Red Sea for Saudi oil facilities.
And more are set to join the fray:
If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
Leaders of the Pakistani Pashtun tribes met with the Iranian ambassador and made him an offer. pic.twitter.com/JY0mYsroL4
— Sprinter Press (@SprinterPress) March 29, 2026
Investors outside Asia are starting to sober up a little bit. From the BBC in Oil rises above $115 and Asia shares slide as Iran war enters fifth week:
Global oil prices jumped and stocks fell sharply on Monday in Asia after the US-Israel war with Iran entered its fifth week.
The price of Brent crude rose by more than 3% to above $115 (£86.77) a barrel, while US-traded oil climbed to $101.62 after gaining almost 2%. It puts Brent on track for its biggest monthly gain on record.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 2.8%, while the Kospi in South Korea closed almost 3% lower.
Sadly the BBC then dignifies the dopey Trump talk to the pink paper by quoting him, and a bit after that, adds:
Lars Jensen, a shipping expert and former director at Maersk, warned that, even if the Strait of Hormuz “magically were to open tomorrow”, there were still further price rises to come.
“We need to keep in mind that a lot of the oil that was loaded in the Persian gulf prior to this crisis is only now arriving in refineries,” he told the BBC.
Overall, Jensen said the impact of the US-Israeli war on Iran could be “substantially larger” than the oil crisis of the 1970s, which sparked economic chaos.
And Jensen, who now runs the shipping consultancy Vespucci Maritime, also warned of the impact of the conflict on food prices.
And some sobriety from Bloomberg. Its landing page as of 7:00 AM EDT:
And from one of the top articles The Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Is Now Heading West:
Fuel crunches hitting Asia will soon start spreading west, they said. Europe is likely to face surging prices to secure cargoes and is at risk of diesel shortages in the coming weeks.
If the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption — but not before prices spike to a level that forces consumers and businesses to fly, drive and spend much less. Already, demand has begun to drop, and some countries in Asia are hoarding and rationing fuel. US government officials and Wall Street analysts are starting to consider the prospect that oil prices might surge to an unprecedented $200 a barrel….
A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the closure of the strait is reducing global oil flows by some 11 million barrels a day, after accounting for the interventions so far aimed at offsetting the loss. When compared with pre-war demand levels, that leaves a roughly 9 million-barrel shortfall — a yawning gap that is more than the oil consumption of the UK, France, Germany, Spain and Italy combined. Lower demand, particularly in Asia, is already helping to force a closing of that gap. (The market also entered the war in a surplus.)
But for supply this may be as good as it gets. A massive emergency stockpile release and US waivers on Russian and Iranian oil sanctions have bought some time, but they are finite interventions. Once they’re exhausted, it’s not clear what further tools President Donald Trump has to keep global oil prices from surging in the near term – other than fully reopening the strait. ….
The situation is even more extreme in liquefied natural gas. The Strait of Hormuz typically accounts for about a fifth of global supply, with the final cargoes on the way from the Middle East now about to arrive at their destinations. Unlike in oil, there are no alternative routes to get the gas to market and very few strategic stockpiles to cushion the shortfall.
The US is the world’s biggest LNG exporter, and its domestic gas market is relatively insulated from the war due to its massive production.
But it’s not just fuel: petroleum is used to make plastics, which are used in just about everything….
Looking more broadly, with oil around $110 a barrel, Bloomberg Economics SHOK model projects a marked but manageable boost to prices and blow to growth. In the euro area, those numbers are about 1 percentage point on annual inflation and 0.6% off GDP.
But if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed too far into the second quarter, the risk is that oil prices move sharply higher. At $170 a barrel, the impact on inflation and growth roughly doubles — a stagflationary shock that could shift everything from the path ahead for central banks to the outcome of the US midterm elections.
How high will prices need to go to crush demand?
Recall that we took issue with an earlier Bloomberg story that depicted oil at $108 as a worst-case Iran war scenario.
Towards the end, it notes:
Now, some in the industry are warning that Europe is heading toward scarcity pricing — particularly highlighting diesel, the lifeblood of the global economy. Several traders and analysts said that the region faces supply shortages within the coming weeks if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, with similar pressures also expected in Latin America.
If the strait remains closed for a second month, traders and analysts say they expect global energy markets will quickly evolve into a fight for supplies, driving up prices and benefiting buyers and countries that are able to outbid others.
While this article is a step in the right direction, we only get a tiny bleat in its penultimate paragraph signaling that on opening of the Strait of Hormuz does not translate into a quick rebound:
Even when the strait opens, flows will take months to return to normal — even for those producers that haven’t sustained damage in the war.
As we and other have warned, it will take a long time to get back to a semblance of normal, even assuming no further damage to energy infrastructure and no cascading business failures that further damage supply chains.
Due to this post already being long, we’ll close with a couple of important videos. Janta Ka is always energetic and informative:
Hindustan Times interviewed a clearly exasperated Jeffrey Sachs. He gets into ground that we have been covering for years, as in not just Trump’s megalomania in combination with growing signs of cognitive impairment, but also the incompetence of leadership across most of the Western world.
If nothing else, be sure to watch at 40:50, where the interviewer brings up that Pakistan government owns Roosevelt Hotel, Witkoff announced US made a deal to jointly renovate, and suddenly Pakistan “gets seat at the high table”.
We’ll stop here. See you tomorrow!
____
1 Just for starters: what happens when styrofoam becomes scarce and costly? Or there aren’t enough plastic bags for garbage bins? You think New York City has a rat problem now, imagine that getting worse and vermin infestations becoming a new normal.
2 What happens if there are insulin shortages? Its typical 1-2 year expiration date after manufacture depends on cold storage. From Healthbeat:
Right now the biggest risk is cold-chain medicines, which he writes are “vaccines, insulin, biologics, and cancer therapies” with “short shelf lives” that have to move quickly and stay within a tight temperature range; largely “between 2°C and 8°C,” 35-46°F.
Most cold-chain medicines move by air cargo, [top health care supply chain expert Prashant] Yadav told me, and airlines cannot simply add new capacity overnight if those routes stay disrupted. Even over the medium term, “I don’t think European airlines, or the two major African ones that have stepped in, will enhance their cargo carrying capacity by buying new planes just because this may continue for a few more months,” he said.
When shipments of these drugs are held up, those medicines can spoil. And even when they don’t, delays multiply. As the article notes, cargo carriers “need a week and a half to catch up for every week that air shipments are suspended.”
An underlying story at ThinkGlobalHealth stresses that advanced economies have significant inventories.
3 Maybe it stages a pretend-raid someplace with credible-looking terrain, load a bunch of canisters on helicopters, says it captured Iran’s enriched uranium and begs Iran to play along? Among the many problems is that Israel would surely know better…
Blammo! This won’t help the price of oil –
Fire reported at an oil refinery in Israel after missile attack
This is a refinery, not production. Won’t affect prices unless Israel stoopidly retaliates and Iran then hits more Gulf production or key energy transit operations. Is that what you meant to indicate?
Point taken. I meant to note it since it apparently just happened, and if even Al Jazeera is admitting it, it’s likely accurate. Any damage to fossil fuel infrastructure probably isn’t going to make the price go down was the point of my admittedly flippant comment.
I dismiss the Kharg Island fantasies as complete nonsense, but though this is madness I think there is a method in it. Specifically “take the oil”. I think this hints at alternative internal Washington/Israeli planning.
Iran is now in control of the straight, putting the whole petrodollar system in mortal jeopardy. So to me the next logical step in the US plan will be to impose their own, secondary blockade: Stopping all “Iranian” oil coming out of the Gulf or (not actually) “seizing” it for themselves. In effect an extension of the existing policy of sanctioning/seizing Iranian and “shadow fleet” tankers, but now for every barrel coming out of the Gulf. It’s insane, but no more so that any other policy in this war.
A much softer version of the policy could be implemented through London insurace cabals and insisting that transactions in yuan or under Iranian terms be somehow “cleared” through sanctified ports and financial institutions before the oil can be allowed into countries under the SWIFT system.
The likes of China will simply ignore it, and the US will not dare interfere with their shipping. India will also likely hold out. But smaller SEA countries? Or the Europeans? The US could routinely begin boarding and ‘seizing’ oil tankers that have paid Iranian tolls, informally paying the owners a fee, then reauthorizing them post seizure to sell in dollars at a markup, in the EU, SEA, etc. The operation could be conducted in oceans far out of Iranian missile range. It will principally be an optics operation, meant to shore up the US’s battered image. It’s sole advantage would be to facilitate the return of actual oil flows out of the Gulf. It would then be in the Iranian’s court on how to respond, or the Israelis court in how to scuttle the operation.
If the US were to properly move to a total war mode against Iran, we would surely be seeing all Iranian linked oil tankers being sunk. So parlor games like this wouldn’t be so extreme by comparison.
The US is in no position to do that. Its aircraft carrier groups are >700 kilometers away from Iran out of fear of being hit
And did you miss that the US LIFTED sanctions on Iranian oil? Admittedly, the pretense was that it was for 30 days only and only for tankers already at sea. But the US is desperate to get as much Gulf supply as possible in the market, even if Iran’s, so as to limit oil price increases.
I’ve noticed the EU or UK/NATO keeps seizing (or blowing up) Russian tankers.
This seems counter to the logic of any oil on the market now helps buffer the shock from the closure of the straight. Perhaps things are not bad enough in Europe for the leaders there to realize what even Trump seems to understand?
Yeah, right, as if taking Kharg Island and disabling other Iranian oil production facilities will increase oil supply and make the price of oil go down!
It’s amazing that no one in the MSM dare question an obviously self destructive “strategy!” And it’s amazing that Trump may do it anyway.
Seizing Kharg always seemed stupid but after reading Trump’s remarks it’s gotten stupider. To me, it seems like seizing the island is Trump planning for the day after Iran capitulates and a pliant regime is installed. In that fantasy world, he wants direct control over export infrastructure and presumably who gets to load Iranian oil. But perhaps I’m being too unkind to occupants of the White House.
After the atack on Abadan refinery it is only a matter of time until Aramco units are shut down, this means the Gate of Tears will no longer matter much after the tanks are emptied.
The way Mr Trump was talking today he is going to try to bomb them into submission. Scuttlebutt today that Air National Guard is to put on notice the day after Easter Monday. This makes sense since pilots and airframes are at a frenetic pace and need rest, perhaps lift the tempo a bit as well. Will be interesting to see if any States resist federalisation in this cause. There are 100,000 personnel in the ANG.
I wonder if Iran have any of the jet powered Gerans from Russia and in their place I would be very wary of Pakistan. The only bright note is the US letting the oil into Cuba although it doesn’t change their fate under present circumstances.
There’s also timing with the Passover holiday and Remembrance Day to consider. Netanyahu is certifiable and has no qualms about staying in battle mode through the next month but there might be cracks in the Israeli public support if they’re in shelters for Pessah. Just a thought. Perhaps the Iranian propaganda slogan for the coming weeks should be “next year in Al Quds!”
Seems to me that Iran and Israel are in it until a very bitter end. Sorry we got roped in.
Rope a Dope?
Israeli society is nuts too. Netanyahu is fine with his doofus kid not even playing dress up soldier, so the society has no concept this is a war that will last. I doubt the IDF will collapse next week, but when people start to notice those 19 year old conscripts are looking really squirrelly, it will be collapse time. People get weird around day 60.
What will emergency services do?
Did the US “let” the oil into Cuba, or did it stand down in a possible confrontation with Russia over the matter? Have been wondering.
Thank you, Yves, for a great report on the state of play.
Some war-related anecdata from Tokyo…
On Saturday, I attended two different street protests. Both were unexpected and remarkable, for reasons I will try to explain.
(1) The first demo was “Geeks Against War” in front of the National Diet building. Several thousand people and many police and riot busses in attendance.
Many posts on X under the hashtag #オタクによる反戦デモ, e.g.:
Amongst the speakers, manga artist Inoue Junichi:
(2) The second demo was in Shinjuku — “Drop Bass Not Bombs” — in a square in front of one of the largest train stations in Tokyo (aside: note on “Bass Drop”). As of now, it’s still happening, and has grown into a kind of “protest rave”, e.g.:
https://x.com/eureka_kamakura/status/2038426884166635795
https://x.com/mrjeffu/status/2038205685360668847
Many people at these events showing off hand-made protest artifacts, e.g., “Please quit, all the cabinet members“, “I Stand with Iran” signs, many people with penlights (a.k.a. K-Pop light sticks), people dancing in strange costumes, etc. Lots of eccentric creativity on display at these events.
Ordinarily, we might imagine the demographic of geek [otaku] and geek-adjacent young people in Japan to be among the most introverted and detached from reality and politics.
But lo and behold thousands of them have appeared on the streets of Tokyo, with signs, banners, costumes, and humorous, fan-made anti-war accessories — all to protest the war against Iran. Many participants carried signs against Takaichi, against Trump, and against Israel.
(3) One of the organizers of the Shinjuku South West Plaza event is Nabekura Masayuki, a professional illustrator and Communist who is out there every night with placards against war and racism.
Nabekura conducts a “Roadside Philosophy Reading Group” that meets out on the street at Shinjuku South-West plaza, every Friday night. The agenda is to read and discuss canonical texts on modern democracy (e.g., Maruyama Masao), but the motivation is closer to street politics and opposition to the right-wing leadership in Japan.
Nabekura summarizes it like this:
Again, I take all of this as rather positive, for the idea that otaku and otaku-adjacent young people in Japan don’t care about politics — that has been upended.
Thank you for that rundown – very encouraging!
re: introversion and public protest, it might be that this group of people is more open to alternatives to “not much to see here” main-stream narratives and so is better informed and more alarmed than is the general population.
This is great stuff and thank you for providing some of the translation (proud of myself for managing to read the hashtag independently at least). In fact it should be no surprise to anyone who knows a little of their otaku culture that gundam fans are wildly antiwar, besides.
I would imagine the perceived japanese-youth political disaffection has to do with the de facto one party system japan has run essentially since its instantiation as a “western liberal democracy” (or else), and in their system it’s rather more naked than our uniparty here in the imperial center where we still fantasize a distinction between the red tie and the blue tie. From my uninformed perch, it seems as though you’d have to be a bit of a political junkie to get your hackles up over “LDP candidate” and “LDP candidate (slightly more so)”. The emerging crisis is different though, and even prior to Iran kicking off hot-like Takaichi was making noises in the direction of various contested islands that might make young people (historically the unfortunate participants to warfighting) get out of bed.
Very interesting, thank you!
“Drop Bass Not Bombs” reminds me of this classic bit of skateboarding ephemera.
Done a bit ahead of schedule. Please refresh your browsers if you arrived before the time of this comment and re-skim the post.
Thank you again for the ongoing coverage. Diesel was $5.70 – $5.90 a gallon on the rt 22 corridor in upstate NY yesterday.
Here at WV’s DC-facing edge of Appalachia, diesel on the cheap stations along the main thoroughfare was hovering around $5.70 yesterday.
Diesel is $6.99/g at the station near my home in Seattle.
Thank You!
Thank you for this, and all that you do.
Thanks much, Yves.
I tried again to post some deets on large anti-war street protests happening in Japan, but for the second time now it got deleted immediately. 🤷
Please so not post Japanese tweets. Your comment wound up in our Spam folder, which is third party software. We get THOUSANDS of spam messages a day and cannot root through it to hoist the tiny % of valid comments.
On top of THAT, you are training Akismet to see you as a spammer. That not only risks all of your comments being deemed as spam by Akismet here but also on any other site that uses Akismet.
Yves: yet more evidence that Trump needs to be escorted from office in a straitjacket.
Trump will be put in a Hormuz straitjacket
A tweet from an expert on Crude Oil:
guy in the future:
“So, how serious is this, on a scale of just noise to that time the Strait of Hormuz got closed?”
https://xcancel.com/Rory_Johnston/status/2038003845561737511
From El Pais:
“Spain closes airspace to aircraft involved in Iran war, but US bases are being used in other ways”
https://english.elpais.com/international/2026-03-30/spain-closes-airspace-to-aircraft-involved-in-iran-war-but-us-bases-are-being-used-in-other-ways.html
I notice that Trump has shut up about closing those Spanish bases. The Pentagon probably pulled him aside and told him that the US needs those bases more that the Spanish needs the US.
I would not be surprised to see a nuclear test in the next few weeks. Khameini’s death removed the fatwa on nuclear weapons and there are signals coming out of Iran about withdrawal from the NPT.
I don’t think those signals are accidental, Iran has shown that it controls the messaging by its officials tightly. Also, if the development started soon after Khameini’s death, we are reaching a point where Iran would be 2-3 weeks out from having a nuke.
No it did not remove the fatwa. I hate to come down on you but do not Make Shit Up. It is a burden on me to clean up misinformation when I have no time to begin with.
It is in place until a new one is issued.
And a simple gun type warhead does not require testing.
And Iran can destroy the entire Middle East with its conventional weapons and is culturally opposed to WMD. Too many died or were injured by chemical weapons in the Iraq-Iran war.
Add this to the list of things that Trump says will be easy like sending the Ukraine war or fixing healthcare.
That may be correct. It would also apply to anyone trying to hold that island.
Just a coupla minor points here about Trump showing off images of the Epstein Memorial Ballroom. I notice that those drawings only showed the ballroom but did not show it in the context of the White House buildings complex. I find that very suss in itself. But then he mentioned how you can hold the Presidential Inaugurations there which I imagine to be on that huge platform to the side. US Presidential Inaugurations are traditionally held on the west front of the Capitol building and you have huge crowds in attendance. But if he intends shifting it to outside the White House ballroom, I cannot image them letting huge crowds form in the gardens of the White House. And what that means is that it will in future be a closed ceremony composed of elites only and without any plebs present.
I think he meant to say Coronations.
Coming next fall: Hassan’s Heroes. A plucky and wily multinational group of prisoners in an IDF detention camp hilariously outwits their stupid, corrupt and ruthless IDF/US captors. Starring Sasha Baron Cohen as the camp commander, Avi Mossman.
Notorious SBC is, regrettably, a somewhat notable zionist; he’ll not lend his talents unless you can trick him as to the timbre of the script.
The common and naive retort I frequently hear is that the US is energy independent now and it wont effect us all that much. even if you take that concept at face value, one should quickly also understand that the US his hugely dependent on the rest of the world for everything else and that 20% energy shortage the rest of the world is going to experience is going to whack the US on everything it is dependent upon from the ROW. There is no escaping this massive real world output shortage that is coming.
yes. and all the dolts saying that Trump can even go as for as a US hydrocarbon export can’t even think 1 step away…..no US hydrocarbonexports = no finished goods imports.
The US should never have lifted its oil export ban (US LNG and oil is too valuable to export in base form and we shouldn’t encourage more fracking than necessary (enviromental impact), but that horse left the neoliberal barn long ago for a host of resons
US produces 13-15 Million BBL Per Day.
US uses 19-20 million BBL Per Day.
I did go to Montana State, but that looks like 25% shortfall between supply and demand. And it does not even speak to the mix of oil stocks we require/ and/or export.
Lotta bad information out there. Informed Citizenry? Not so much. Mis-informed? you bet!
And I still marvel at the lack of resentment or glowering , “at the pump’. We have some odd complacencies and conditioning.
Got the bike tires aired up and the chain lubed so it flies down the road is splendorous silence?
Reporters (whose salary depends on editors’ whim) seem to ignore the basics.
US DoE weekly status report (1030 EDT Wednesdays) confirms (over many years) your numbers for crude oil in USA!
USA exports a lot of LNG since the Russian sanctions, therefore is net exporter in terms of all hydrocarbon products.
Very little of the 250 million barrels of crude Biden released from the national petroleum reserve has been repaid!
It is my new mission in life to sticker every gas pump I visit with the Trump version of the “I Did This” sticker that was visited upon Sleepy Joe a few years back. They are readily available (and inexpensive) online. I just bought 400 more to give to my friends. My personal version of Blows Against the Empire, lol
My thanks to Yves and the gang at NC, the coverage here is of extraordinary quality, and terrifying.
Being in danger of getting beheaded for changing allegiances is clearly an effective way to cement them. At least for people who consider their own life more important than their nation. So new thinking will not happen in the elites in Gulf states. But new reality is happening regardless. At least in Iran the people in top postitions will not be thinking it is a good way to boost ego and get rich quick. The real danger to life might actually be a way to blow the narcistically oriented out of the water.
A part of the new reality is that US bases are not as protective as they were supposed to be. US and Israel weapons systems are not as effective as the salespeople said – all this Yves has pointed out. EU has been counting on the protection of US bases and the supposed superiority of weapons. How long will it take to notice that this is history? When just figuring out that energy and other shortages are soon knocking at the door takes a month to land. It is obviously hard to look forward, when one has made a fortune out of business as usual. Maybe new brains will be needed to see the new reality. It looks like markets are cut off from reality. What if we will be fighting at the pump about who gets to fill up, and the prices still hover around 100 dollars, because Trump says something? Our ability to be comforted by words seems to be vast. And it is being put into use – not for our benefit, though.
US bases are also bug out sites especially for the Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia is nothing more than an oversized plantation. The people who live in the big house and their overseers number, the House of Saud, number about 15,000 which is a bit less than my memory. Enterprising colonels outside the Royal Guard could take the country, and the US knows they will likely want to keep the US around in some capacity. The Sauds promote religious extremists to keep people in line along side their role as guardians of the Hajj which is in May. The unspoken arrangement is the Sauds play ball, and we will escort them out or put down an uprising. Iran is a red herring other than that it exists. An Iran integrated into the global economy is the kind of thing that can give the more enterprising colonels confidence in what comes next.
The Saudis problem is Salman/MBS aren’t in the same league as Faisal or Khalid/Fahd when they really need to be. One thing the Saudis know is they are only 200 years away from the Ottomans and Egyptians trying to exterminate their clan because they were raiders.
In general, I think Western planners saw Iran as somewhere between the Gulf States and decayed Baath parties -(cough) elections matter.
Paraphrasing Condi–It’s the birth pangs of a new Middle East
Thank you for the reality grounding. I too like indi.ca but think reality means the problem is larger than the insanity of the “white” oligarchy that currently rules and has to do with oligarchy in general. Political power may be needed to organize and manage societies but that same power also psychologically corrupts the powerful. As the above indicates the problem is not just Trump but rather the Trumpian love of entitlement that characterizes our entire ruling class and Western culture. They have been going along with Trump because they too can’t handle the truth of their own precarious position.
That which cannot continue will not but the future seems vague and more than a bit scary.
for majority of the people who read this, you absolutely need a car to function (we can have a flame war over urban planning later)
at a minimum check your car battery (Pb and sulfuric acid). if it’s old and you live in a climate with at least hot summers, the battery may be ageing out.
I don’t expect battery scarcity in the US, just inflation…but you never know.
Most car nerds in your family/neighborhood will have a battery tester and happy to help you out for a can of beer or some cake, lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_cY77jeJe-k (battery testing)
and/or if you have any essential repairs that you have been putting off, this may be the time to do it…just as all the parts supply chain re-normalized post-Covid. as always, don’t rush into anything.
I have been wondering whether Iranian escalation planning before the conflict took into account all of the dire consequences of closure of the Hormuz Strait for uninvolved parties (which encompasses most of the world).
It has taken a while to get the tolling arrangement working (as of the last news I was aware of, enabling legislation was not yet enacted); this suggests that this concept was not well-developed and prepared for prior to the conflict.
I have the impression that Iran is trying to maintain the moral high ground in sight of the rest of the world, thus the pattern up to this point of proportionate and like-in-kind retaliation. If there is mass starvation due to fertilizer shortages, that might shift the sympathies of many affected countries.
I’m wondering if it might be that the blanket closure of the Strait to all traffic at the beginning of the war is a hint that this aspect of the escalatory reaction ladder was not as well thought out as the kinetic responses.
I imagine the Iranians don’t actually favor tolling as more than a short term band-aid as it invites similar problems everywhere else and reminds everyone why the US empire has been so successful: free trade
Thing is, the Iranians are going to need at least tens of billions of dollars to repair all the destruction done to their country. The US will never agree to reparations and would renege on it if they did. So a toll way is the only viable way to raise the funds needed for reconstruction.
Sprinter Press twiXt:
“If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
Every once in a while, a commenter here will speculate on who are Iran’s allies, if any. I think it is important to re-set Iran in the Persian world.
Observations:
—The Persian language is spoken in Iran, natch. It is called Dari in Afghanistan (spoken there by more than half the population). It is Tajik in Tajikistan. So we are talking about an extension of Persian culture. Many of the estimated 60,000,000 (!!!) Pushtuns would know it as a second language because Pashto and Persian are close relatives.
—Which leads to Urdu, the national language of Pakistan and of India’s Muslim population. Per Wikipedia: “Urdu has been described as a Persianised standard register of the Hindustani language.”
—For a number of years, Rumi was / is the best selling poet in the U S of A. Rumi wrote in Persian. He lived in Konya in (modern) Turkey. Ooops. First, Putin. Now, Rumi. Undermining America!
—Speaking of Turkey, the language of the Ottoman court was Persian or a Persianized form of Turkish. Modern Turks have trouble reading Ottoman texts, because they are in the Arab/Persian alphabet and have many Persian words that language reformers extracted when Turkish was standardized in the 1920s and 1930s.
—Persian cookery. Ahhhh. Its reputation in West Asia is like the reputation of Italian cookery in the United States. Persians are just Italians who serve bigger portions of rice.
—Greco-Persian wars. Roman/Persian endless dustups in Mesopotamia.
Iran is not an isolate, operating through “proxies.” That concept is another form of orientalism. Iran has operated from Greece to Bangladesh. Not recognizing this broad “soft power” is part of the derangement that got the U S of A into this disaster.
Included in Aldous Huxley’s The Perennial Philosophy
Jalal-uddin Rumi
Hiya! Please to meet you! I am Hugh. Hugh Bris.
I went down a rabbit hole because a molecular virologist (Marc Johnson) I follow received notice from their helium supplier that his organization can expect half the supply this coming year. He then got pushback saying the US produces all its own helium (both LNG and crude derived). He then embedded the actual notice in the thread (this is all on X).
Turns out the US had helium reserves to support 30% of domestic needs and sold it all to private interests in 2024 and that made the news as medical interests were very concerned about the sale. The US was a top exporter of helium in 2024-25 but it was also a top importer of helium in the same time frame along with Vietnam and Malaysia.
All this suggests, to me at least, is that the producer status of the US (all things petroleum and its byproducts) may not buffer it from the unfolding shocks because the rat’s nest of the interests of the few mean the interests of the actual citizenry cannot and will not be prioritized.
the US had a helium reserve. the 2nd Obama term (2013) enacted a bil to close the reserve. it took that look to close the reserve because that was how much excess helium the US stockpiled, lol
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Helium_Reserve
It is my sincere belief that, for Trump and Hegseth in particular, they have been convinced by the might of Hollywood propaganda. They literally internalized 1980s action moves. They watched Rambo say “are you going to let us win this time?” and they believe it as an article of faith. America always always always wins, because we are America. It’s not even Calvinism, it’s not so intelligent as to be reflected in a respected philosophical tradition.
It’s cheap, tawdry Hollywood bullshit. It’s Top Gun and American Sniper and Red Dawn.
“America’s Military Is Never Coming Back From This”
Rather a sobering article this. After this war the US military will only be a shadow of what it was before the war began. Other medium power countries will see that the US military is vulnerable and may reorganize their own military organizations accordingly. Mayb more than a few of those 800 bases scattered around the world will lose their relevance as the US will not be able to use them to project their power. It is an utter cluster****. On the other hand, the MIC was able to create tens of thousands of millionaires and more than a few billionaires on defense contracts over the decades so there is that.
Nature abhors a vacuum, and it will be filled by countries with a powerful military-industrial capacity. And the west has no industrial capacity (industry requires energy).
I don’t know where I came across this talk with Michael Hudson and Steve Keen from the Institute of David Graeber. If it was here, my apologies.
How the Global Crisis Will Unfold:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIypIDWQAQw
If they are correct, the food crisis is scary stuff.
France probes possible Iran link to foiled bomb attack outside Bank of America in Paris
Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said the attack, which was foiled after police arrrested two suspects who set an explosive outside the bank, could be linked to Iran due to similarities to recent Iran-linked attacks in other European countries.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2026/03/30/france-probes-possible-iran-link-to-foiled-bomb-attack-outside-bank-of-america_6751935_7.html
Chinese Cargoes Hint at Fuels Relief for Neighbors Despite Curbs
China has exported cargoes of diesel and other fuels to energy-starved countries across Southeast Asia over the weekend, in what could be a signal of support despite export curbs imposed earlier this month.
Tankers delivered more than 260,000 barrels of diesel to the Philippines and about 100,000 barrels of distillate fuels to Vietnam over the weekend,
If you give us the order, millions of Pashtuns from the tribes are ready to wage jihad together with Iran against Israel. We will provide ourselves with weapons and food ourselves.”
I’m sure its a nice offer but wouldn’t it put Iran in as a co-belligerent on the side of Afghanistan in the Afghan-Pakistani war? As it is, Iran might end up in war with Pakistan on the basis of the security agreement between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but a neutral Pakistan may be valuable to Iran. Further, if Pakistan is fighting Iran and the Taliban, I would imagine India will take advantage and things will spill out of the region.
“Pashtun tribal leaders in Pakistan voiced support for Iran during a gathering at the Iranian consulate in Peshawar, signalling the potential for broader regional unrest …
The remarks, while not reflecting any formal state position, highlight the risk of non-state actors becoming more directly involved in a widening regional confrontation. Pakistan’s government has not commented on the meeting, and there is no indication of official endorsement of the statements made at the consulate.”
https://www.intellinews.com/pashtun-leaders-express-support-for-iran-at-pakistan-meeting-434306/
Chinese container ships pass through Strait of Hormuz at second attempt, data shows
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-container-ships-pass-through-strait-hormuz-second-attempt-data-shows-2026-03-30/
Turkey says it blocked alleged Israeli plan to recruit Kurdish fighters for Iran war
Report says 500 Kurdish fighters were en route to Iran before Ankara intervened; Erdogan warns Trump move could spark wider regional conflict and ‘ring of fire’
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/s1zfjavsze
Related to the indi.ca analysis/description of US military might, it is gobsmacking to think that Saudi Arabia’s military budget, at the equivalent of about $80B USD, is roughly half that of Russian Federation.
The thought occurs that they could have gotten significantly better capabilities at much lower cost by purchasing Russian kit.
There is a US law that if you purchase Russian kit, that you can be punished and sanctioned unless a waiver is given. Oz should have purchased Russian fighters but instead we went with the abysmal F-35s.
Looks like Australia should have kept the French submarine deal too, since the American submarines may never come at this rate
Given the markets, once again, knee jerk reaction to the Trump headline that talks are going well, I’m more convinced than ever that the change in market momentum is being driven by headline reading algorithms that don’t put a Trump discount on Presidential statements. The initial shift is then propelled by momentum-following algorithms. I can’t imagine human traders still take Trump’s imaginary talks at face value, but I can imagine them using the pump to lay on hedges, (and those with advance word to make a quick, illegal, profit).
Fed put a/k/a BFTD. Like Pavlov’s dog (or Skinner’s pidgeon), markets expect liquidity (rate cuts, QE) to save the day, like every time since the Greenspan years.
A 1973/4 or 1979 scenario is inconceivable, and will be poo-poo’d by the investment committee unless they are very open-minded people and/or history buffs, lol. especially as the blind BTFDers right for 40 straight years
Taiwan’s Kuomintang leader to visit mainland China to aid ‘peaceful’ relations: Beijing
Cheng Li-wun invited to visit Jiangsu province, Shanghai and Beijing next month
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3348342/taiwans-kuomintang-leader-visit-mainland-china-aid-peaceful-relations-beijing?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage
Trump Throws Stephen Miller Under Bus in Surprise Display of Panic
As Trump clearly sours on key aspects of Miller’s tenure amid new revelations about it, a veteran immigration lawyer reflects on whether his grand ideological project is starting to falter.
A striking Wall Street Journal report recently revealed that Donald Trump now sees his mass deportations as a major political problem for him. What’s more, Trump is siding internally with advisers who worry that they’ve become a liability in the midterms. In this, Trump is clearly rebuking Stephen Miller and his agenda.
https://newrepublic.com/article/208321/trump-throws-stephen-miller-bus-surprise-display-panic
I’m trying to think of a country where eventually there can be peace talks. Actual real ones. Nowhere in the Middle East as far as I can see nor the EU. The US would never accept Russia or China hosting talks. India and Pakistan are out as would be Japan and South Korea. Maybe South Africa but Trump would spit the dummy over that one. Who is left? Maybe it should be a teleconference to ensure that the Iranian negotiators are not kidnapped or assassinated.
I could be totally off-base, usually am, but Iran seems to be playing a game of chess here, and their enemies have been good enough to make predictable moves which lead to predictable responses which further erode their enemies’ position. US/Israel attacked, Iran takes Hormuz. If the US involves ground forces, Iran is threatening attacks from proxies/allies in the region. What is noteworthy is Iran has been able to frame its conduct as defensive, but what is transpiring is the expansion of Iranian influence and control across the whole region. They are, in effect, reaping the benefits of an offensive war while being able to frame it as defensive.
I think there will be a ground war, regardless of the US does, but my prediction is that Trump does something splashy and stupid which ends in mass casualties on the US side. People forget that Iran has something over 1.0 million troops. They don’t all have to sit in Iran, they can integrate with allied forces across the region. That puts them in a decent place to roll up some territory, especially having pounded all the military assets in the region and shutting off the income to the Gulf States. If they shut off the Red Sea, even Saudi will have very limited capacity to ship oil anywhere. My guess is Iran is going for control over the entire region, and Trump is playing right into the plan, and giving them a pretext for it.
We are probably looking at a long ground war of attrition in the Arabian Peninsula, and the US better get that draft going pretty damn quick if they want to be relevant.
Given the supply chain disruption, how realistic is it to believe that US could equip and then sustain a mass-conscript army in the field?
A sobering thought is that the military might be needed at home to maintain order.