If Donald Trump walks away from the war with Iran now, the threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will remain, risk premia on oil prices will stay permanently higher, and Trump’s own popularity will sink even further ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Despite the obvious risks, he has every reason to try to “finish the job.”
NEW YORK – The financial and economic implications of the US-Isr...
The narrative presents a stark economic case for prolonged conflict, framing withdrawal as a lose-lose scenario for both markets and political stability. At its strongest, this argument highlights real geopolitical risks—disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, commodity price shocks, and stagflationary pressures—that could destabilize global markets. It also acknowledges the domestic political calculus for Trump, where perceived weakness might erode support. However, the analysis leans heavily on a...