Thursday links: a smartphone replacement

Quote of the Day
"So yes, no one is building a smartphone. But everyone is busy building a device that they hope will eventually replace the smartphone."
(M.G. Siegler)
Markets
- Big changes in market structure are afoot including 'Retail has become the structural bid.' (citadelsecurities.com)
- Ten charts going into the second half of 2026. (bilello.blog)
- Some market insights including 'Since the end of 2024, the South Korean index is up 339.5% total return.' (novelinvestor.com)
ETFs
- The iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF ($IQQ) has launched. (thedailyupside.com)
- Do leveraged ETFs represent a systemic risk? (advisorperspectives.com)
Technology
- What it means to work alongside humanoid robots. (wsj.com)
- Technology is coming for your eyes. (asymco.com)
- Why a keyboard is an inferior way to interact with AI. (spyglass.org)
Companies
- The new Paramount ($PSKY) is going to be debt-laden. (wsj.com)
- Nvidia ($NVDA) is trading at lesss than 20x foward earnings. (msn.com)
- Is Buc-ee's a tad too litigious? (wsj.com)
Prediction markets
- Congressional staffers are still trying to bet on elections. (npr.org)
- How two sharps make money in prediction markets. (podcasts.apple.com)
Stay in touch
- Don't miss a thing! Sign up for our daily e-mail newsletter. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Are you a financial advisor? Sign up for our exclusive Talking Wealth newsletter. (talkingwealthpod.com)
Work
- Younger workers are less reluctant to take leave for mental health. (bloomberg.com)
- A look at the financial situation of long-time Costco ($COST) hourly workers. (wsj.com)
- No matter whether you work remote or not, carve out time for focused work. (hbr.org)
Economy
- Still no sign of a pickup in weekly initial unemployment claims. (bonddad.blogspot.com)
- Companies are still passing through tariff-related costs. (libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org)
- What if the payoff from AI just takes longer? (apollo.com)
Earlier on Abnormal Returns
- Longform links: expensive promises. (abnormalreturns.com)
- What you missed in our Wednesday linkfest. (abnormalreturns.com)
- Personal finance links: buying permission. (abnormalreturns.com)

Facts Only

* A quote by M.G. Siegler suggests that individuals are building devices intended to replace smartphones rather than just smartphones themselves.
* Retail has become the structural bid in market structure changes.
* Ten charts are planned for the second half of 2026.
* The South Korean index had a 339.5% total return since the end of 2024.
* The iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF ($IQQ) has launched.
* Questions exist regarding whether leveraged ETFs represent systemic risk.
* Topics include working with humanoid robots and the future of AI interaction methods (e.g., keyboards).
* Paramount ($PSKY) is expected to be debt-laden.
* Nvidia ($NVDA) is trading below 20x forward earnings.
* Unemployment claims show no sign of a pickup in weekly data.
* Companies are passing through tariff-related costs.

Executive Summary

Market structure is undergoing significant shifts, with retail activity being identified as a structural bid in the market. Several data points indicate strong performance in specific areas, such as the South Korean index's 339.5% total return since the end of 2024. New investment vehicles, like the iShares Nasdaq 100 ETF ($IQQ), have been launched, prompting questions about systemic risks associated with leveraged ETFs. In technology, there is a focus on the integration of humanoid robots and the evolving role of AI interaction methods, raising questions about future necessities like keyboards versus direct AI interfaces. Corporate developments include expectations for debt-laden entities, such as Paramount ($PSKY), and valuation concerns for major tech players like Nvidia ($NVDA). Economic data shows no immediate sign of an acceleration in weekly initial unemployment claims, while companies continue to absorb tariff-related costs.

Full Take

The recurring theme across the information streams points toward an accelerating, disruptive cycle where foundational shifts are occurring faster than traditional metrics can capture. The juxtaposition of macro economic stagnation (no pickup in unemployment claims, persistent cost absorption) alongside rapid technological and market restructuring (retail as a bid, AI integration, new ETF products) suggests a tension between slow-moving institutional realities and explosive innovation narratives. The focus on building replacement devices rather than the current paradigm reflects a systemic impatience where change is assumed to be imminent, creating anxiety around existing structures, evidenced by discussions of systemic risk in financial products. Furthermore, the subtle emphasis on how humans interact with emerging technologies (AI interfaces, robotics) alongside concrete corporate financial pressures suggests that cognitive sovereignty may hinge not just on economic outcomes, but on mastering the speed and direction of technological evolution. The implication is that resisting manipulation requires understanding the underlying patterns driving these narrative shifts rather than focusing solely on immediate fiscal signals.

Sentinel — Human

Confidence

This text appears to be an index or compilation of disparate news snippets and links rather than a continuous argumentative article, exhibiting typical characteristics of curated content aggregation.

Signals Detected

Highly fragmented list structure typical of aggregated content or a newsletter index rather than cohesive prose.

Extreme variance in source quality and tone (from high finance to personal finance), suggesting compilation rather than singular authorship.

The list functions as an index of disparate topics linked by a vague, motivational framing, lacking a central argumentative thread.

Specific statistics and claims (e.g., South Korean index return) are attributed to external sources, making direct fabrication harder to detect in this index format.

Human Indicators

The mixing of high-level financial commentary with very specific, niche references (e.g., Paramount stock ticker) suggests human curation or a highly specialized, personalized feed design.