Thanks for tuning in to the RealAg Issues Panel on RealAg Radio! Shaun Haney is joined by Evan Shout of Maverick Ag, Lyndsey Smith and Kelvin Heppner, both of RealAgriculture, for today’s edition of the show. Topics up for discussion: farm profitability, tariff deals or no deals, Trump's beef import idea, and Ducks Unlimited's big land purchase.
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Read more » Last week, all the discussion was what are packers up to on constricting some of the slaughter capacity in the United States. This week, the beef markets are very much in the limelight, and it's being driven by President Trump in a Truth Social post on Friday morning saying the US is going to import over 90 days, 300,000 metric tonnes of ground beef from undisclosed countries, and it'll be sold at 25% less the domestic beef production. On the news, feeder cattle and live cattle futures were down sharply. What does this actually mean for the price of beef going forward? As North American consumers, their number one concern is affordability. President Trump's trying to address that, but the miss is how mad beef producers are fresh off of this announcement. We've got cattle groups that never agree on anything, let alone the day of the week, all siding with the fact that this is counterproductive to the rebuilding of the cow herd to increase beef supply going forward. We'll talk about that on RealAg Radio and a whole lot more here today on Rural Radio 147, SiriusXM. It's time for RealAg Radio on Rural Radio Channel 147 on SiriusXM. RealAg Radio and RealAgriculture.com is your home for insight and analysis of the issues that are impacting your farm business. Let's get real and get connected with RealAg Radio. Welcome to RealAg Radio here on Rural Radio 147 SiriusXM. Shaun Haney, your host here on this Friday edition of the show. Hey, thanks so much everybody for making RealAg Radio and Rural Radio 147 a big part of your workday. Also huge shout out to everybody watching the show on YouTube or maybe listening to the RealAg Radio podcast wherever you get your podcasts. It's great to have everybody here, really do appreciate it. It's been a very busy week in the world of agriculture and geopolitics and trade, and there's a lot happening. We've got a full show for you here today with the RealAg Issues panel. If you do have any feedback on today's show, you can send me an email, shaney@realagriculture.com. You can also call or text the RealAg feedback line, 855-776-6147. Okay, let's bring in the panel. Up first, it's Lyndsey Smith coming out of Ottawa, Ontario. Lyndsey, how you doing?
I am doing so well, Shaun. It has been a busy week, so trying to catch up With everything that's been happening. We are, as we record, still waiting for even more news. So let's see, by the end of this show, we may have monumental news to announce. We'll see.
Or not.
Yeah, there's— are you talking about Canada-US trade?
I could be, but I could be talking about a Truth Social post about importing hundreds of thousands of tonnes of beef from somewhere. So who knows? There's so many exciting things that could happen this week.
There is lots going on. We'll get to Canada-US trade here right off the top, but also joining us is Kelvin Heppner coming out of Eltona, Manitoba, the land we're unsure is going to lift the alcohol ban, and Kelvin's here to represent the province. How are we doing today, Kelvin?
I'm doing well. Our Premier here, Wab Kinew, received some attention yesterday and certainly asked for some attention with his blunt assessment and fighting back against What looks like could be a potential deal announced later today in terms of Canada-US trade. So yeah, we can discuss that later. We actually started harvest here this week. We've had a bit of rain set us back, but hoping to get rolling here again later today. So it's been busy on that front as well.
Lisa Raitt, former MP out of Ontario and a member of the Prime Minister's Advisory Council, saw last night on a panel, I think it was on CTV, saying Premier Kenney's comments were quite unfortunate. I think how she described it. Also joining us here is Evan Schoutt. He is the host of the Truth About Ag podcast you can hear on the Real Agriculture Podcast Network. Also, he is with Maverick Ag, also Farmer Coach. What else? What other company have you started this week?
Just keep going.
Just keep going.
Okay, well, it's great to have you here, man.
To be fair, combines are rolling. So that's the part of the business that we don't talk about on here very often. And That is a good sign when combines are rolling in Saskatchewan.
Yeah. And what, for that area, what's the prognosis?
I think what we're hearing right now is cereals are coming off probably a little above average, which is probably a positive. Lentils are going to be all over the place depending where you are in Saskatchewan. And honestly, canola is the wild card. I think there'll be some good, some bad, and where that comes out in stocks and all that, You can have that conversation later.
We had John Dreger from Left Field Commodity Research on the show earlier this week. If my memory serves me right, I think they're like 41.5 bushels per acre is their estimate on where production is going to work out. Of course, StatsCan is predicting 23.4 million acres. I think in simplicity terms, Evan, we're somewhere between the '24 and the '25 crop on canola production.
With significantly higher prices. That's the one benefit.
That is definitely the truth. It has been a really interesting day in the markets. We've got, as the time of we're doing this, canola is down in November about $17 to $8.03.
Why would you do that right off the start, Shaun? Why would you wreck my day? You wrecked my day and we're only a minute and a half in.
Well, If you really want your day wrecked, just think about from a beef perspective because, well, wait a minute here, we're coming back at the time of recording here, we're coming back off some of the lows. We got December live cattle down a buck and a half to $216.775, feeder cattle in September down $2.25. So yeah, but those numbers were worse earlier, earlier on here today. And that's all to do with the big Truth Social announcement that Lindsay had alluded to. We'll get to that a little bit. On the show. I want to start off with Canada-US trade. It's become very clear that my question of, is Prime Minister Carney too pragmatic, is kind of coming home to roost, and we're kind of testing this. Dominic LeBlanc, trade negotiator Charest, and Prime Minister Mark Carney have come to some sort of agreement with the US. There is more and more details to be filtered out. But now we're testing how badly does Canada actually want to deal with the US. It doesn't seem, Kelvin, like Canadians are like, great deal reached, let's move on. There is a little bit of a propensity to fight here.
There is, and sure, Canadians acknowledge that these tariffs, if the 50% tariffs take effect later tonight, They would damage the economy. They would hurt Canadians' household finances, all of that. But polling also shows, and we saw new results from Abacus Data this week that said only 18% of Canadians want Ottawa to offer concessions. In Quebec, it's even lower, of course. And so there is this risk to Carney right now where if he comes across as conceding and capitulating, even worse in terms of perception to President Trump and the White House, that this could be probably the most significant blow to Carney's brand and support across the country, and that's where I think Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew sees opportunity, political opportunity, to take that lane and call it his in terms of being a spokesperson on this. And we saw, or I should say we haven't seen Premier Ford in Ontario raise his voice this week. He's chosen to fly under the radar and not get involved and affect things here, but it is certainly a sales job that Carney will have to do in terms of if he has agreed to a deal, which we should find out in the next few hours here, getting that deal not only negotiated with USTR, with the U.S. administration, but also negotiating with the premiers in the provinces across Canada, because some of these changes that would have to be made to meet what the U.S. is wanting fall under provincial jurisdiction, and so we have to remember that the provinces have a lot of power in this as well.
What's that 18% number again? Read that back to us.
Let me find it here. It's 18%. Only 18% of Canadians polled by Abacus Data last week said that they want Ottawa to offer concessions such as easing restrictions on dairy or lifting bans on American alcohol to make the tariffs go away.
So only 18% of Canadians are living in a reality then? Is that basically what we've established here?
I'm glad you said it. I didn't have to.
Well, that's where I think the RealAgriculture audience, even just the farm community as a whole, would probably Probably not be in line with the overall Canadian consensus there. You're right.
Canadians elected Prime Minister Mark Carney to reach a deal with the US, and now potentially he has done that, not in the— across the entire USMCA review, but some of the most contentious components of it, at least for this point in time. And now we're questioning what we actually elected him for in the first place. Apparently there were strings attached to that vote, Lyndsey.
Well, okay, but also at the same time, how someone in a poll like that and saying what we want or don't want, this is also why we have leadership, a Prime Minister, ministers, etc. They're going, ultimately are going to be the ones that are making these decisions, working on this negotiation, and getting to what we hope is what And this is the way it works, the best deal that they think they can get to. There are— whatever comes out of this and also however long this lasts, we would all hope that we would come to an agreement with the least amount of pain as possible, but we also know that there's probably some measure of pain that is going to be inflicted because that's the way this works. And so ultimately, to the point of all of us, you know, who lives in reality, I don't think everyone's going to be happy with this. That's the reality. The reality is hard decisions are going to have to be made. The sales job of selling it to people, that's what's going to have to happen, and ultimately, you know, how people feel about it in some ways is somewhat irrelevant, at least in this exact moment. Looking forward though, this will be, to Kelvin's point about Ford is Nowhere to be seen. Canoe is taking on this hardline approach. This will be the politicking that comes after, but ultimately, we have a government that is making these tough decisions. We would hope they're going to do their best job, but then after that, we're likely going to end up with people who pick it apart, and that's just reality. I would hope that that sort of sentiment at this point isn't necessarily colouring things because we ultimately do need to make a deal, and there's probably going to be some pain points, and we'll have to work our way through it.
Yeah, like, Evan, I kind of— I'll say it, I kind of feel sorry for Prime Minister Carney in the fact that he's having to negotiate with a very difficult USTR and White House, find some sort of arrangement, you know, agreement, compromise. Some are going to say he negotiated the best deal he could. Some are going to say that he capitulated, whatever. They've come to an agreement and now he has to come back And try to sell that to provinces who are now going to essentially extort him for some sort of financial gain for their province. Like, dude is caught in the middle here.
Oh yeah, he's between a rock and a hard place. And I mean, part of the big fact, I mean, what Kelvin said, for example, is the politicking side of it, right? So his biggest worry is, does he do this and he essentially loses half his voting base, right? So The big one for me is, A, he should be doing what's best for Canada. And I believe in the back of his head, I think that's what he is doing. I mean, getting a deal done with them, especially if you're sitting in Western Canada right now, is incredibly important, especially in agriculture. Are we going to make concessions?
Yes.
The leverage model still fits on the US side. Canada is still at an underadvantage here. Yeah, we can pull liquor off the shelves, guys, but that's not doing very much.
Let's be fair.
It comes back to who's got the power in negotiation and the fact that we need to get this done, especially for Western Canadian ag.
We've got a lot more coming up here on the RealAg Issues panel. You're listening to RealAg Radio, Rural Radio 147, SiriusXM. RealAg Radio is Canada's only daily radio show focused on agriculture. Get expert advice on Agronomic Monday, Tuesdays and Wednesdays, we'll cover a broad range of issues. Thursday, we'll hear from farmers across the country on the Farmer Rapid Fire, and we'll wrap things up Fridays with the RealAg Issues panel with Kelvin Heppner and Lyndsey Smith. Join us Monday through Friday at 4:30 Eastern, and don't forget about the replay at 7 in the morning on Rural Radio 147 SiriusXM.
Hi, I'm Lyndsey Smith. Joining me now is Michelle Wall with Syngenta.
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Welcome back to RealAg Radio here on Rural Radio 147 SiriusXM. It's the RealAg Issues panel here on this Friday. Hey, FP Genetics SU Performer Hybrid Fall Rye, known for its standability and harvestability. Visit fpgenetics.ca to discover FP's dynamic rye portfolio and to contact your local territory manager or product specialist. FP Genetics, gain a genetic advantage and experience the difference. The next wave. I like that, the next wave. Good stuff. It makes me think of surfing. Lyndsey, have you ever surfed?
Do I look like I surf? No, absolutely not.
That wasn't my question.
Like, sort of. I'm more like— envision, like, you know, those like Labradors that like surf on the front? That's more my style, gripping on for dear life. But I would like to. Anyway, but I also like the next wave thing.
Yeah, you know, surfing is like one of those things where you watch it on TV and you're like, that would be fun, and I bet you I could do it. It's sort of like tennis where TV makes it look way easier than it really is, and it's incredibly difficult. That's what surfing is like for sure. I'll maybe stick to surfing behind the boat. That's more my surfing.
Good idea.
Okay, the big news in the livestock sector today. Last week we talked about plant closures. This week President Trump gave us a bit of a gift on Truth Social is that he's moving much more aggressively to bring down hamburger prices, or at least attempting to do so. He's announced a 90-day window allowing as much as 300,000 metric tonnes of beef used for ground beef to enter the US without the normal out-of-quota tariff. Now, President Trump said suppliers have committed to sell the product at 25% below current market prices. Although the administration has not yet disclosed the supplying countries, how the price commitment will be measured, or how the discounted beef will be directed through the supply chain. I guest hosted AgriTalk in the U.S. earlier today, and we had Jim Wiesmeyer from Wiesmeyer's Perspective podcast and John Newton from American Farm Bureau on, and both of them expressed great displeasure in, in this strategy. John Newton said his phone at American Farm Bureau has been off the hook from members, including President Zippy Duvall. He had also talked to the White House expressing displeasure. I guess, Lyndsey, we know that the consumer in both Canada and the US, affordability is the number one concern. So you understand the idea or the goal of lowering those beef prices, but it's actually counter to what producers really want right now or need right now.
Oh, there's so much to unpack on this one. And I hope you were being facetious when you said it was a gift, or it's a gift of at least something to talk about.
A gift of news. It was a gift of things to talk about.
Yeah, a gift of news, because I was going to say it's more a rotten egg and a stinky something than anything else in that this is— so I think about all the political players right now, right? So yes, affordability, big issue for consumers, Canada and the US. So the government's going to like, hey, look how great we are, we're going to lower prices of beef, etc. But the means by which they're trying to do this. A, I'm not quite sure how this is all going to work. And also just market manipulation like this is just— it never turns out the way you think. There's always unintended consequences. Not sure how the mechanism is going to work. And maybe bigger picture, what I would— I can't wait to find out is how the friends at like RCAF and these sorts of things are going to feel about this when it's bringing in a whole bunch of cheap beef from other countries. There are so many other things going on right now, even on the lamb side. There's an ITC thing going forward on tariffing imported lamb. Right now in a protectionist environment to make this proclamation and say it's all going to happen, it just feels like— and again, we probably know that most people don't actually know what's happening until he says it, but I can only imagine the scrambling that is happening today. behind the scenes to try and figure out, A, how they're going to do all this, and B, how to manage the political fallout.
NCBA put out a statement saying NCBA is disappointed by the president's statement. While America's cattle producers share the goal of keeping groceries affordable for consumers, flooding the market with government-subsidized below-market beef is not the way to rebuild the American cattle herd. And Evan, this is the big point here, I think, is they tied this announcement to giving an opportunity for the American rancher to rebuild the herd. retain some of those females, the heifers, to start to increase the supply. In order to, you know, for you to want to retain heifers, you've got to have weather on your side, you got to have grass, you got to feed, and you need the market. And this announcement today is definitely attacking the market side of that equation. It becomes a little bit difficult for people to justify the investment to retain those heifers.
Well, I think it's twofold, right? Like, we make promises and do things and we say things that necessarily might not even be possible, right? Like, we've come out across and again, on the beef herd side, you're 100% correct right now. Is it economical to actually run that? I mean, we're sitting at 20-year highs still. I mean, beef is still sitting at a number that is astronomical. And most of the industry is waiting for that, let's call it the next drop or what's going to happen going forward. On the other side, do we want government intervening in markets such as this? I mean, we've seen it in other areas, it's probably not a positive, even on the— I mean, obviously, I deal with a lot of the grain side and that, but when we talk about the subsidy side, whether it's cattle, whether it's grain, whether it's supply management with Kuzma, all that stuff, we're talking about government intervention. And for some reason, if we look back historically, that never leads to a positive outcome in my eyes.
Yeah. And the reality here is, you know, some people may be listening to this and being like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, hold on, Shaun, why do we care that the US is going to be making this announcement? How does that actually impact producers in Canada? It has a great impact because everybody— hello, the live cattle and feeder cattle futures are on the CME. And so it definitely has an impact on some of the pricing back in Canada. We're just trying to connect the dots and make sure everyone remembers that. Kelvin, the first thing I thought of when I saw this announcement this morning, and both Jim Wiesmeyer and John Newton agreed with me on air, This gives life and a bit of a fire underneath the idea of M. cool and the need for this legislation. If we're going to be importing this cheap ground beef from God knows who, where, you know, all over the world, we got to make sure that consumers know that this is born, raised, fed, slaughtered, and packaged in the United States, and that label needs to be mandatory. So I think it gives life to that big time.
Yeah, it could. And this is, I think, where we've seen US government in many cases do things out of— speak out of both sides of its mouth in some ways. Sure, affordability is important, but at the same time, MCOOL would potentially hurt affordability if you restrict imports from other countries. And so that's where, yeah, we've also seen it on the biofuel front in terms of that example where there's a take or something is— a decision is made that benefits one sector, and so then they have to give a gift on the other side. And so MCOOL could potentially be a gift to the RCAF types and ranching community in terms that want to see that, in terms of offsetting some of the backlash against this. Overall, I think we talk about this being a gift. It's also a gift to those of us who appreciate irony, because here you have the US administration trying to implement tariffs in every creative way possible and arguing that they don't raise prices, but every few weeks, they come out with another announcement like this where they once again acknowledge that tariffs do actually raise domestic prices and you've got to drop tariffs on imports to help consumers with affordability.
Well, there's affordability and there's profitability, and we're going to talk about profitability and some of the pushback and some of the things to be aware of on this '26. And of course, we're going to start talking more about this '27 crop, and it's not— from a cost perspective, it's not looking to be any sort of cheaper. for producers across the country. We'll do that when we come back. You're listening to RealAg Radio and the RealAg Issues panel.
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I'm Lyndsey Smith, host of The Agronomist, and I want to thank you for tuning in for over 200 episodes of our beloved little programme. Join me Monday nights 8 PM Eastern on YouTube for our live and interactive agronomy Q&A. Each week, our guest panel will handle some of your toughest agronomic questions live streaming on YouTube, Facebook, X, and RealAgriculture.com. Tune in Monday nights or go to RealAgriculture.com/agronomist and sign up for our email notifications and don't miss an episode.
And we are back here on RealAg Radio. Kelvin, earlier this week I had John Drager on from Left Field Commodity Research, and, you know, I was getting him talking about whether he's optimistic about the Jets. We're getting a little bit closer to hockey season. Are you optimistic about the Leafs?
I'm interested. Yeah, I think there's some upside. There's— it's— they made a lot of big changes, so I like that they, they're trying something different at least.
Well, you know who, you know who really sucks? The Ottawa Redblacks. Boy, did they get shmammered last night by Montreal Alouettes, Lyndsey. Your CFL team sucks.
Okay, how do you find the time to, to keep track of all these different sports? I honestly, I want to know your secret because I have no idea how you can keep track of college football and CFL and NFL And NHL and like, how, what do you not sleep?
Well, uh, well, no, that probably not. Nope. Not enough. Uh, my, I, I probably told this storey before. Uh, Trish, my wife had said one time, uh, does our entire life need to revolve around the college football schedule?
Yes.
And the answer is yes.
It's a very easy answer.
I just want you to pull Kel— Kelvin's soundbite in about 9 months. That's all I want. I want that soundbite to get replayed in about 9 months.
I was gonna say, but see, here's what happens, Evan, is you have to pull the audio because his memory of history and things that he has said sometimes can be a little waffly. It can be a little waffly.
Super accurate. I, I side with Kelvin on this one.
He's usually right.
Okay.
Rooted in agriculture, MNP Ag Advisors combine field-level agronomic knowledge with financial and operational insight to help farm businesses make confident decisions, turning insight into action. You can find out more by going to MNP Okay, Evan, I want to talk about— you've been running a bunch of numbers for farms of different sizes, and the cost side of the equation is an issue here. We know that a lot of times there is a little bit more of a hyperfocus on those variable costs, seed, fert, and chem, and there needs to be a broader discussion about some of the fixed costs as well. What are some of the numbers you've been you've been pulling and analysing?
Well, I think the biggest one, and I mean, we'd had the discussion before, Shaun, is I've been presenting across, obviously across Saskatchewan in the last few days, and part of it is just on volatility, right? So if we look at 24 months starting today, go back 24 months, and you look at the highs and the lows, we're finding numbers across the entire income statement, let's call it. I mean, you can look at canola prices for one, which would be a high of $8.05, a low of $5.95, just for reference. I mean, you got $190 an acre difference somewhere on an average farm just on canola price. And then you start looking at the inputs. As you said, there's about $56 an acre difference between the highs and the lows across every single fertiliser implement that you— or fertiliser input you could put in. But then when you get down to the fixed costs, it gets even more interesting because you've got equipment. I mean, we all know as our exchange rate goes where it is, and we see the price of new equipment increase yet again, and used equipment sitting on lots, we're understanding that the cost of equipment is going up.
Yeah.
But then you look at diesel and you look at land costs. And I mean, really, the only one that's come down over the last couple of years is interest. But we've also purchased a whole bunch of land, which has driven the land costs up to cover the interest. So I mean, we're looking at income statements with cost of productions that are compounding much faster today than they have over the last decade. So we're actually going— when it comes to cost of production, the risks are getting much larger, much quicker.
Okay, so the takeaway from that is, so that's reality, so what is the takeaway from an action perspective that we need to be doing?
I think the biggest takeaway is we've gotten really good at growing crops as producers. That is no longer the biggest difference between the top and bottom producers. The biggest difference is on the revenue side, on the expense side, and by that I mean on the marketing side. Buying it, selling at the highs and not selling at the lows, or at least laddering. We start looking at fertiliser, Having the working capital in place to actually buy when the price makes sense, not when you're forced to, which is, you know, it's hard nowadays because working capital is getting tighter with the increase in costs. Machinery, do we actually need another piece of machinery to get this done? Efficiency, optimization, utilisation, and that applies to diesel fuel and everything else on that side as well. And then I think when we talk about expansions and land growth and that side of the coin, actually looking a little closer at these. I mean, it used to be the quarter across the road comes up. Yeah, I'm buying it. It makes sense. Now I think we're starting to see farms actually evaluate to make sure that it's not going to put them in a position that actually could be detrimental because, I mean, as land increases, as rent increases, it's not just an easy yes or no anymore. I think there's a lot more analysis that has to go into it. And those are the big ones. I think the farmer is no longer just a production farmer. He needs to be, and it's a rhetoric, I mean, CEO of his business, but you need to understand the business and finance side. Considerably more than you ever have in the past.
Yeah, and Lyndsey, that can be a difficult transition and not something that just sort of happens, oh hey, I heard Evan say this and I've heard other people say it, you know, snap my fingers, I've changed my mindset. This is something that takes some tenacity and a little bit of a grind to make that change on an individual farm.
Well, and I think also a commitment that you recognise that this is perhaps an area that is in need of work on your farm, right? Like, part of it is committing to, all right, you know, we know we can grow a great crop, we know how to, you know, we know our fields, we've invested in tech. Like, to Evan's point, like, we understand what it takes, and yes, Mother Nature decides just how well we do, but like the management side, if we've got that dialled in on the field level, then It does take sort of that commitment to say, all right, on the management side, we're going to have to have some discipline. We're going to need to learn some new skills maybe and actually invest the time and effort into learning those new skills. It might mean looking at your team who's all there and saying, okay, where do we have gaps and who wants to learn about something and divide and conquer. It might mean from a leadership perspective, the lead on the farm might have to set the example of like, this is what we're going to do now. Evan said something really important, I think, that I think that is a really neat thing to look at, is that idea of what does it cost you to not be able to do something when the time is right. And I think that that's a really good exercise because I think about that on our own farm. I've had this conversation with a lot of people just in the last 2 weeks about, I would love to do X, but I don't have the money to do it, but I know it would make me money or save me money. And when you start to actually hammer out what some of those decisions are about, you know, what you would like to do or what's Like what's holding you back, you start to recognise that like investing that time in the business side, the financial side, all of that, that's a key piece of being able to change where you're at, to be able to eventually say, hey, I do have the money because I've planned for what I want to do, and away you go. And I think it holds us back, this idea of like access to capital, etc. It holds us back maybe more than we realise if we haven't sat down to hammer that out. And so yeah, I think that that it's excellent to identify some of these things, but then it's like, Shaun, to your point, what's the action item? How do you actually start to incorporate some of this learning, some of these skills into your farm business, and who's going to do what?
Yeah, and you, Kelvin— oh, sorry, go ahead, Evan, go ahead.
I was going to say, Shaun, you and I have had the discussion. It is an emotional discussion. I mean, you and I have presented, and when you bring up the financial acumen to producers, they take a little offence if you say that we're not at the position we should be. So I think what we're starting to see is the self-awareness on farms with how big the costs are getting and how much is getting pushed, they're starting to actually be okay with that discussion of maybe we don't know it and getting help with it. The other one is we always use the parable, which is I can sleep through a storm. So going to Lyndsey's point, preparation is in the details, right? So I mean, yeah, weather could be our biggest thing. Well, what's the risk management plan? Or if we don't want to sell grain at a low cost, how much working capital do we have? It is the farms that are preparing well in advance that are the ones that come out the other side of this probably in the best position to be open.
Full stop. It's an entrepreneurial issue, right?
This is—
nobody comes back to the farm and says, I cannot wait to figure out where the breakeven is or do some financial analysis of these parts of my operation.
No, I did.
Well, okay, you're an outlier, believe me, on a number of different fronts. But, you know, this is— so it's an entrepreneur thing. If you were running the local family hardware store, you'd be having this exact same discussion. So farmers aren't in some sort, you know, on some sort of, you know, non-financial competency island at all. This is a small business issue that I think really impacts family businesses in no matter what vertical you are in. And we know this, Calvin, you know, we're seeing it in Canada, we're seeing in the US predictions on the '27 cost structure, and they're not going to be really lower. In fact, they're probably higher on some fronts. We're seeing a significant reality this week on the 30-year Treasury bond market, which is at a multi-decade high. We've got continued lack of exit on the Iran war, and so these things lead to higher costs for the '27 crop.
If you look at diesel prices and what's happened on the diesel front here the last couple weeks, is probably one of the sharper indicators. But yeah, looking at those 30-year bond returns in the US, certainly Scott Bessant and the market has been paying lots of attention to that this week, trying to change some things, and the market has shown some resistance, saying that deficit is getting too concerning. And as a result, yeah, we should probably expect borrowing costs on longer-term mortgages and loans to continue to climb. Even if central banks don't necessarily move in that direction. I think a lot of this too is to build on the point about timing and being able to capitalise on timing and not being cornered, being captive to purchasing your fertiliser at a certain time because that's when you have cash flow or that type of thing. A lot of it has to do with finding new tools, new methods, new approaches, and to what Lyndsey's talking about, you got to You've got to work on learning some new tools potentially to change up when you buy, just giving yourself flexibility on timing. As Evan alluded to, some of the numbers that you're talking about when it comes to the range in canola or range in some of our input costs, it's all about timing and having the freedom or the ability to capture those opportunities when they work. Often I think scale is in a farm's favour when it comes to being able to sell crop throughout the year and do that ladder pricing, that type of thing. But there are other tools out there for smaller and medium-sized farms as well that can increase that timing flexibility, and I'm not sure that we've fully tapped into that at the smaller and medium-sized farm as well.
Well, we're going to continue this discussion coming up here after the break. I also want to talk about Walmart's earnings, Deere's earnings, because there's some things that tie back to the farm gate as well. You're listening to RealAg Radio here on Rural Radio 147. It's the RealAg Issues panel, back right after this.
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The Canola School on RealAgriculture.com is your one-stop shop for everything a canola grower needs. Cheque out our free video series on YouTube for all the latest in canola agronomy, research, marketing, and more. Don't have time to watch? Download the podcast version of the Canola School on RealAgriculture.com. Stay on top of all things canola with The Canola School on RealAgriculture.com, brought to you by BASF and InVigor hybrid canola. We're back here on RealAg Radio, the RealAg Issues panel, Evan Schout of the Truth About Ag podcast, Kelvin Heppner of RealAg Radio, and myself, Peter Johnson. RealAgriculture.com, as well as Lyndsey Smith of RealAgriculture.com. Every season begins with the conditions left behind from the last, unfortunately. From the Raptor stripper header to the Spider disc drill, Kayhart designs equipment to support low disturbance farming practises throughout the production cycle. Visit KayhartIndustries.com. I like how some of our audience members Anytime there is a post on X about stripper headers, people are tagging me as if I'm the champion of stripper headers, which is, uh, I, I really do appreciate that, Warren Schneckenberger. Okay, um, let's talk about, uh, earnings. Oh, John Deere, Kelvin. It was interesting, the John Deere earnings call, um, one of the points was that stuck out to me, uh, they've got $100 million coming back to them on the tariff refunds. that assisted in the quarterly numbers, but there was some proclamations or statements made in terms of potentially based on dealer inventories reducing in North America that we may be seeing signs of we've kind of hit the bottom of this part of the cycle from an equipment buying perspective. Is that how you read some of the numbers, Kelvin?
I thought it was actually, yeah, it's a pretty definitive statement to that they are calling what they believe will be the bottom. John May, the CEO of Deere, I have the quote here. He says, as we look ahead, we continue to believe 2026 will mark the bottom of the current ag equipment cycle. Across our business, early order programme trends, improved used equipment inventories, and increasing customer adoption of our advanced technologies gives us confidence that we're well positioned. Calling the bottom in the equipment market, maybe even the broader ag market, that's a pretty bold statement that we don't often see in these earnings reports. On a smaller scale in terms of agriculture, we also saw Linamar report its earnings, share its quarterly earnings in the last week here. That's the parent company of Bourgault, Salford, and MacDon, and they are also talking in that earnings report about market stabilisation expected in the end of '26, early 2027, with '27 expected to be a stronger recovery year. And so, yeah, some of this has to do, of course, with strong commodity prices again. highlighting canola. I know it's maybe not the same in all the other grains and oilseeds, but if we see, continue to see canola prices where they are right now, Evan has alluded to this as well, that there could be some profitability flowing to local dealers when it comes to the equipment market this fall and winter.
I don't know if you have the storey up in front of you, Kelvin, but like the storey I wrote about the earnings, it does have Precision Ag sales down Which is kind of a count, you know, that, and I think that's significant because Deere has really positioned itself as a tech company. And so Precision Ag being a component of that, they're obviously looking for a rebound there. I can't remember if it was down 9% or 15%.
6. No, it says 6 to $4 billion.
Okay.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Upside down 9. Okay.
That's—
yeah. Yes. That's—
yeah.
Whatever. Accuracy over here at RealAg Radio.
That's great.
Yeah.
So you just have to turn the paper over. It was accurate. It's fine.
Let's assume that this is the trough or the bottom of this part of the cycle for OEMs. Boy, Canada really, you know, you look at the Canadian market versus the US market, we really never suffered the downturn that we saw in the US from a sales perspective, Lyndsey. Obviously, the time will tell if that is actually the case, but I think for Western Canada, canola being a big part of that.
This is maybe, yeah, it's interesting to see because we also often see ourselves in some markets, or by some measures, we see ourselves, Canada, somewhat delayed to the US, right? But I think you're right, if we look at where we compare, at least on the machinery side with AEM and these sorts of reports that come out, trends were maybe similar but not exactly and not as bad. And so yeah, I think there's something to that, that there's— and maybe that's that also when things are to the good, maybe it takes off some of the real highs, but we certainly didn't hit some of those real lows either. So yeah, now why? I don't know. That's somebody else's pay grade.
Well, and for those Midwest producers, we've got corn over $5 right now. That is encouraging. But if you've been following the Pro Farmer Crop Tour through the week, That 180 national average seems a little bit elusive. A lot of people kind of relooking and saying maybe we're a little bit closer to like a 176 to a 179. At the time of us recording the show, we don't know what Pro Farmer's final number was, but the USDA prediction on the 180, it seems a little bit elusive, and some of the disappointment in some of the states like Illinois and western Iowa, for example. So we'll see what is told there. Evan, what's your thought on the equipment side of the equation?
I think you're going to see a shift. And what I mean by that is, Kelvin mentioned, I mean, we've got canola prices into next fall that are approaching, let's call it $16.50, $17.50. So I think we are going to see a shift of where maybe we don't see the bottom that the US saw, partially because canola is going to dig us out of that trench most likely. But the one shift I do see is I think with the amount of producers I'm talking to, the shift is actually going to go from new equipment to used. I think we're going to see a lot of the liquidation on the used market start. Even for our farm, we're looking at used equipment over new just based on the gap, which is getting a lot wider. I mean, those 1 or 2-year-old 1,000-hour machines, that's almost where the discount sits right now. That first-year depreciation is gone. And I think farmers that have rolled or continually rolled every year are starting to have those discussions of, am I going to pay that 6% increase for the new, or do I take a discounted and take a 1,000-hour machine? And that is where I probably see the most capital allocation leaving the dealerships is probably on the used market, which alluding to your storey, I think we're going to see less stock or less supply on the used side. New side, I just, I think the guys who always are new are going to be always new, but the guys who might have been shifting to that market, I just don't see it happening.
Yeah. The other earnings that we saw this week, Kelvin, was Walmart. And Walmart's kind of been leading this battle of the consumer downshift, which is wealthier North Americans, you know, as they look for more affordability, looking at maybe buying at a Walmart and maybe they were going from Whole Foods, you know, that, that's what the downshift alludes to. Walmart is kind of that indicator of the overall consumer economic economy and what, what is actually happening is a bit of an indicator. And Walmart missed on the revenue. Now some of that was led by pharmacy and some of the downward pressure on pharmaceutical prices, But there was some concern on those Walmart numbers this week.
Yeah, which shows again, underlines how affordability is top of mind and a daily in-your-face issue to a lot of North Americans right now.
Yeah, for sure. Okay, we're gonna take a break. We've got more coming up here on RealAg Radio and the RealAg Issues panel back right after this. Built on over 100 years of seed innovation and unwavering commitment to Pioneer 100 Series canola hybrids deliver a step change in yield performance and agronomic traits. This isn't just better canola, it's different canola. Pioneer 100 Series. Contact your local Pioneer sales representative or visit pioneer.com/100series to learn more today. Hi, I'm Bernard Tobin, host of the Soybean School on RealAgriculture.com. Throughout the year on the Soybean School, we'll bring you timely agronomic video content from planting to harvest, from the latest agronomic research to the latest in production technology. Cheque out our massive video library on YouTube, RealAgriculture.com, or download the audio podcast versions wherever you get your podcasts. The Soybean School is brought to you by Maizex Seeds and Lallemand Plant Care. And we're back here on RealAg Radio, Shaun Haney your host, Lyndsey Smith, Kelvin Heppner of RealAgriculture.com, as well as Evan Schoutt, host of the Truth About Ag podcast, Maverick Ag, and also with Farmer Coach. Evan, what episodes you got coming up when it comes to Truth About Ag?
We got a few good ones. I mean, we released the one finally, the Ag in Motion drift is off. So we did all our live ones at Ag in Motion and those got released, including the new sponsorship from Taurus Ag, which is great for us. And then I think we got Colin Breezwell from Farm Credit coming on next week to talk about their non-financial lending stuff. So essentially the advisory side, the education side, what they're doing for producers and how they're investing some of the government dollars back into the industry instead of just paying into the coffers. So I think that'll be a good one. And then we've got a long list, but I don't want to give away all the secrets, Shaun. It's much easier just for our social if we just do it and then you get the bat, you get the trailings afterwards.
I think you need to have Lindsay and Kelvin as a guest. They're tired of dealing with me.
We could talk sports for a full, full episode.
That's what we need is a sports podcast. I'm all in on that. I, I, but I wanna be a guest. I don't wanna be the host.
I, I will host it, but the Leafs fans, you're not, you're not invited, Gilbert.
Schedule it for 2027. Like, are the Leafs even, are they even in the NHL team? We'll record it during that time.
Oh, from the parade.
Spoken like a true Leafs fan. From the parade.
Yeah, no, I said the final game.
If there was relegation, you wouldn't even be in the NHL right now.
Yeah, there's a few teams where thank goodness there's no relegation. Anyway, okay, uh, Lyndsey.
Yep.
There may not be a more controversial topic in Canadian agriculture than some of the activities and strategies and Things that are happening from Ducks Unlimited, major purchase of some grassland that— wow, was it like, what's the size of it?
It's over 8,000 acres. And so let's just lay it out there that especially for me who have— I've lived in a couple different provinces, Ducks Unlimited has a different connotation depending on which province you're in. So in some provinces, right here in Ontario, there's lots of really great projects. It doesn't tend to have the same sort of visceral reaction that you might get in, say, Saskatchewan or even parts of Manitoba. But yes, we did get news just recently. This is the largest ever acquisition in Manitoba's history for ducks, and I gotta imagine it's pretty high up there, but they— it's the Canada They're calling it the Kennedy Field Station at East Meadows. It was East Meadows Ranch. Yes, there's grasslands. However, there is a lot of wetlands, a lot of— I think there's a delta included, but it is 8,167 acres is what this will take over. So this, they've renamed it the Kennedy Field Station, and this has been all put into a conservation land purchase. So it has all gone into conservation. And yeah, so it's interesting.
You know where they got this money from? You know where they got the money from?
Uh, where did they get the money from? It is actually listed in the storey if anybody wants to go cheque it out. But where did they get it?
I have very good sources and authority here that Evan went to a Ducks Unlimited banquet and paid way too much for a signed Gordie Howe jersey.
Oh, I was gonna say for one of those pictures, for one of those framed prints.
Yeah, $9 million too much.
Is that—
yeah, this is what happened.
Yeah, so that's—
send your hate mail to us.
Yeah, that's not what's in the storey.
Across the bottom of the screen, email sean@realagriculture.com.
Yeah, no, it wasn't about $9 million purchase is what they're calling it, and it says, uh, contributions from public and private donors. So Evan, thank you for that, including, uh, Koch Enterprises philanthropists.
Wow.
Um, but also the Government of Canada's Natural Heritage Conservation Programme.
So I want to track— I want to track What provinces those donations came from, please.
Okay. Well, yeah. Anyway.
And were they all inside Canada?
You could—
are you— Wow, you really went out there.
Yeah.
Well, these are—
these are—
You just opened a door.
Yeah, I'm opening—
Shaun, what do you have against birds? Okay.
I have nothing against birds. I'm making light of, uh, you're— yeah, I saw on Instagram you're in your bird era. You guys, you know, tell me you're getting, you know, tell me you're getting older without telling me you're getting older. When you start bird watching, you are, you are older.
Okay, so hang on. I'm not just watching for birds, Shaun. I have the Merlin app, in which case that means that I am, I'm recording these birds. I— it tells me which ones I can hear, and now I'm learning all about their calls.
So this is what both you guys— this is what boredom looks like right here.
Absolutely not.
This is cat lady.
Yes, this is cat lady material.
I have zero cats. I have a lot of birds anyway, but they're all outside and they're self-sufficient, so it's great.
Anyway, you know, when we, when we had the seed operation, we had a guy that worked for us who, uh, was— his like hobby was bird watching, and you could spot any bird, he'd be like, oh, that's the blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Sure, it was just like, how do you know that? And, and I guess you just reverse it. You know, you asked me how I know everything about every sport. I guess we all have our Yeah, and mine matters, so anyway. Yeah, Kelvin, the Ducks purchase kind of falls in line with some of the concerns that people have about solar farms or data centres, like this all kind of fits into that same block, doesn't it?
In some ways, yeah, it has to do with land use and whether land What types of restrictions are on land in terms of its potential to be used for agriculture or different purposes, productive purposes for the economy. And so that's, I think, where some of the concerns potentially are raised. And we don't know exactly, in the case of Ducks Unlimited taking over land, sometimes it can still be grazed or it could still be used for what it was used for previously, just maybe managed differently. And sometimes the concerns that people have is with the management when things are entered into conservation type programmes where maybe the weed control becomes lacklustre and it affects neighbouring fields and that type of thing. Or, or yeah, there's lots of different scenarios. And so, yeah, but in general, people get pretty emotional and we have strong opinions about how land should be used or be allowed to be used. And that's where I think there is overlap when you look at data centres, solar farms, these types of conservation type programmes on land. essentially is probably not going to be farmed for a long time, or at least be on the market, in private market for a long time when it enters into something like this. That's something that is a concern in some situations.
Hey, we are out of time here for the Rural Radio 147 portion of the show. For those of you watching on YouTube or listening to the RealAg Radio podcast, we will have a bonus segment where you'll find out a lot more about some accusations I have for Evan. And we'll get through all of that. Hey Evan, thanks for joining us here today. Appreciate it.
I appreciate it, John. Thank you.
Great stuff. Lyndsey and Calvin, we'll chat with you later.
Take care.
Bye all.
Okay, if you have any feedback, send me an email, shaney@realagriculture.com, and make sure you go to realagriculture.com over the weekend and keep up to speed on all things that are happening in the world of agriculture, because I'm sure there's— it's a Friday, so Fridays are the gift that keeps on giving. There is more that I'm sure is going to happen between now and the end. Thanks everybody for getting real and getting connected with RealAg Radio. And welcome to the bonus segment of RealAg Radio. Appreciate you hanging in there with us and having some fun there on SiriusXM Rural Radio 147. They've got a great lineup throughout the day. We are proud to be really the Canadian content provider on RFD-TV and Rural Radio 147, and there's a great lineup throughout the day to keep up to speed on everything that is happening in the world of agriculture, and God knows there's a lot going on. I guess, Lyndsey, from your perspective, what's something we didn't necessarily touch on during the main show here today?
Oh goodness, That's a good question. I think, well, and this is of course my bias, speaking of your biases, Shaun, one of my biases though, and one of the discussions always comes down to sort of the agronomy side. And one thing, so we kicked off this week with the episode of The Agronomist was on the swath versus straight cut decision. That has been just, I think, crop conditions in general right now, and this like as we roll into harvest conditions and just what how much crop is out there, etc., and managing this crop as we get it into the bin is definitely a hot topic right now. And I will say it does seem, and so for those of you who followed along on the Sell the Swather campaign, it does seem like swathers are rolling far more this year than they have in a long time, so that's always a lot of fun.
You think so?
It appears so from what I can tell, and this is anecdotal, nobody's actually pulling these numbers in, but from the agronomists I've talked to, from farmers themselves, etc., At least for some of those, there's pockets where the variability is just all over the map, and swathing is one of those ways that you can at least try on certain fields to manage for it. So we'll see. I also want to know how many people actually sold the swather and didn't just park it in the trees, because I feel like some shelter belts have some swathers in them. But anyway.
Kelvin, are you swathing or straight cutting over there, Kelvin?
We do both, and we've done both all along, or I would say, yeah, we've done both the last probably 5, 10 years in that time range. Used to swath everything, but yeah, now it depends on how the stand looks, how many weeds are in the field, and whether it's which generation is making the decision on what we'll do with that.
Oh wow, tell me your family dynamics without telling me your family dynamics.
I like it. Interesting.
Indulge us on that. That seems like there's a barn door opening right there.
Yeah, there's just different theories as to what the best approach is, and I'm not sure there's one that's right versus wrong, or one maybe values time differently than the other in terms of the time spent in the swather seats and that type of thing. And of course, fuel factors into all of that, and there's different experiences.
Yes.
Some fields we've had, actually last year we regretted not swathing some last year that we had rain on it late. It was taking a long time to to dry off and got rain on it and it was a nightmare actually picking, trying to pick it off the ground and so yeah, probably there's a little bit more eagerness to swath again this year.
Yeah, and I did want to point out for those producers that now know that they have Verticillium, which is much more common than it used to be, I didn't realise how much it shredded the stems and so that stalk integrity, you really lose it over time and so exactly that, Kelvin, if you get into a wet cycle or something like that, it just, it kinks over, right, right on the ground and then it's a nightmare. So if you've got Verticillium problems, that's one of those too.
Stock integrity was something we heard a lot on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour this week in some of the regions, seeing a lot of tipback, real concern about that as this crop in some of these states, how late the crop is or immature it is in order to get to finish, if we're already seeing some deterioration, what does it look like when we get to say October, November-ish? So definitely something to be watching out for. Evan, go ahead.
Yeah, I was going to say that's interesting, Lyndsey, because I probably don't have very many producers that didn't sell the swather, to be fair. I mean, and I think scale has somewhat to do with it, right? The amount of manpower needed to run 2 separate operations. Then the size of some of the headers on some of the combines nowadays, when you're running 50-foot straight cut headers on combines, it just efficiency-wise, but again, we're going to have the variability issues, a couple of rains put the crop down, so you're dealing with mud and you're dealing with stones and that side of it. So there's positives and negatives to both. I would just say as some of the farms scaled, I think the swather debate got a little more pushed towards straight cut heads than it did to swathing.
What the data shows us is we're not very good at timing the swathing anyway. People tend to swath too early is my understanding on some of the research, which also impacts yield.
Tying this in with what we've been talking about all show, there's some good August specials as well, so I know some canola has been cut, a lot of acres have been cut in terms of trying to deliver that canola into those August cash specials.
Nothing wrong with that, nothing wrong with that.
I like that you say that, and then northeast Saskatchewan, I saw a canola field in full bloom about a week ago.
Yeah, that's what we've been hearing in the form of rapid fire is some of that canola is really hanging on to flower longer than we really want it to. Kelvin, what did we not talk about?
I'm not sure.
I guess there's always more we could talk about when it comes to this trade deal and Details that have leaked out so far in terms of what we could potentially be seeing there. But I think also this, and I think I mentioned it, but the bond buyback attempts by Besant to bring down those long-term bond returns. Next week we have the US Federal Reserve Chair speaking at Jackson Hole.
Yep.
So I think there's more attention being paid again to the overall fiscal situation of the US and, and the major economies around the world. And, and, uh, I saw Bitcoin was up a bunch again the last day or two here. And so there's this idea of a fiscal crisis again. I think, uh, we— it's, it's resurfaced back to the top of discussion and something that I think we'll be hearing more about in the coming weeks.
A lot of, a lot of US producers would really like to see that US dollar deteriorate in value with the hope that it really boosts the export opportunities. That's something I heard a lot through the winter speaking season, is definitely on the minds of a lot of people. And even with that Jackson Hole meeting next week, I think we're gonna— what we're gonna hear is the Federal Reserve Chairman not exactly providing what the market wants in the sense that he has made it very clear he wants to go back in time with how the Federal Reserve typically has communicated, which is to not be so transparent that you're pushing the market in certain directions. And so he's probably not likely to say much. And there's going to be this, again, this re-expression of disappointment in the lack of commentary that he has on the broader macroeconomic situation.
And potential volatility then, because there is less forward guidance. less of a crowd, everybody agreeing on what, uh, what the next thing is gonna be. So yeah, it'll, it'll, uh, I don't know, to me, just the whole idea of the US passing $40 trillion in, in, uh, in debt and, and all, all of these things.
Sure.
The, it's a year ago now since Elon led the Doge effort and, and you can have, uh, there's a lot of opinions on, on how that went. And in a lot of cases it didn't result in what, uh, what its intended goal was.
Yeah.
But the idea of fiscal conservatism coming back, I'm not sure we'll see it with the midterms. Something though that I think is a risk that everybody should have on their radar.
The fiscal hawk is an extinct bird. We're more interested now in black swans.
The fiscal hawk is extinct in the political class, but not in the real world.
It is, okay, but it is for taxpayers, for consumers. Like everybody wants cut, you know, the government's got to quit spending like it is. And then the second that we have any sort of discussion about cutbacks, it's like, whoa, not over here, over there. I meant those other people in another area of the country. This is a Canadian thing too. It's people don't like being told no.
Well, and let's be fair. I mean, from a Canadian producer side, I don't want the exchange rate in the US to degrade. Because right now it's holding my grain prices at extremely high levels. And I'm not saying that's the only reason. But we Yes, it affects our equipment costs, but don't buy a piece of equipment, whereas we don't really have that choice when we go to sell a load of canola. So in my opinion, from a Canadian standpoint, we're exact opposite, as I want our dollar to remain where it is or maybe even go the other way a little bit.
Well, assuming they're in the inverse, okay, so one of the things to really follow and watch is just because the US dollar index comes down, It doesn't mean the Canadian dollar appreciates in value to a US dollar. It could very well follow in the same exchange rate around that 70 cents. Now, if it's all of a sudden 75 or 76 cents, absolutely agree with you, but it just may be more expensive for us to buy euros, not necessarily US dollars, depending on how it trades.
Okay.
Lyndsey's like, what are we talking about?
Yeah, no, I do actually understand currency, so thank you. I was just looking up black swans on my Merlin app and they're not on there. Neither are the financial hawks.
Well, you talked to Dr. Cole earlier, so you might as well look at a white rhino while you're on there too.
Yes, thank you. I'll look it up.
He's great.
He's always referencing all these mammals. I love that guy.
Super discussion, go cheque it out.
Evan, before we wrap up, what did we not get to from your perspective? Any last thoughts?
I am gonna leave you with some optimism, Shaun, as I think we've started looking at 2027 crops. So yes, cost of production obviously is up, but I mean, based on where crop prices are today and where we saw fertiliser, at least nitrogen, give us a bit of a drop in the past, I think a lot of producers who did take advantage are looking at probably a much rosier picture than we did last November when we were looking at prices for next year. So I think there is some optimism, especially around canola. And I mean, even the wheat has somewhat become more bullish. So I think from a standpoint of optimism in the industry, we need to— and I think your farm sentiment probably showed a little bit as well on the financial side—
Yep.
Is that going into '27, I'm way more optimistic and excited than I was coming into '26. And obviously it turned out okay in '26, due to some other, let's call it geopolitical issues. But I think going into '27, farmers who have the ability to make those decisions that Lyndsey was talking about, but we're looking at a much rosier picture than we were 12 months ago.
Yeah, we saw a sharp increase upwards in terms of sentiment around— and there's 2 points that stuck out to me. We talked about this last week. One is how I feel about my financial performance 12 months from Alluding to what you're talking about, the '27 crop. Also, how I feel about the overall agricultural economy in the next 12 months and the next 5 years, we saw a dramatic increase. And the final one was, is right now a good time to make capital investments? That's the one that also really jumped, still negative, but we're— I think we're at about an 80. The US is at about a 50 on the exact same question according to the Ag Barometer. I think, and some people sent me emails and said, oh, like, I don't know who, which farmers you're talking to. And like, there's 560 farmers from across the bloody country, everybody. It's a pretty representative sample. It's okay to be like, we're feeling better about things. That it's okay. It's fine. We'll be like, optimism is good. We don't need to live in this world of pessimism all the time. I think it's a good thing.
Yeah.
that people are feeling better about the current situation. We got a long ways to go. Like, I would love that current farm financial performance to be at a 125 or 130. I would love that. But we're inching closer to that 100 neutral level, which I think is encouraging. I'll take the win.
And we have very short memories. I mean, let's call it 2019, we were selling canola for $9.36. So I think guys got to somewhat realise that there is a new reality at this point. I'm not saying things don't shift a bit, but fertiliser, you had the opportunity to buy less than we did this year, that's a positive. Canola is up $5 from where it was last fall, that's a positive. And at the same time, yes, equipment's up, fuel's up, all that's up. But again, the equipment side, capital investment, maybe it's not the right time. Maybe we wait. Like, there's a management decision in there somewhere that guys can make that right now '27 is a positive outlook right now compared to what '26 was when we were coming in.
China's buying soybeans, Okay, we've got huge domestic demand in North America right now for soybean oil, and corn's over $5. There are some fundamental things happening here that give us reason to be optimistic across the different crop ranges. Again, not perfect, it's not, you know, a get-rich-quick scheme, it's, you know, there's some work to be done here and all this can change as news develops and things happen, but right now I think there's more reason to be optimistic about these markets today than say 3 months ago for sure. So I'm going to take the optimistic take as well. Hey, we're out of time here on the bonus because I got to go do some more interviews and I know Lyndsey and Kelvin got to do some writing and Evan's got to work out. So we got to run here. Hey Evan, it was great having you on the show, man. I love it.
I love being on here, guys, and we did not talk sports near enough, so I'm expecting next time a little more.
I will do my best cuz we're, we're just getting into college football season. So like, this is where Shawn's life gets totally taken over. Totally. I don't get my life back until the end of January, but we're, we're in the trenches now, baby.
We're— Yeah. Let's, let's replace some bird discussions of Lindsay's with sports and I'll be good. Oh my God.
A quarter, a quarter of the teams have bird names, so we can—
It's true. So actually, see, Calvin, thank you for being inclusive. I appreciate it.
Except for the Stanford Cardinal, which is actually a tree, which is very confusing to a lot of people.
That is super confusing.
Come on.
It's a tree.
That's not allowed. Okay, anyway.
You think in Stanford, smart school, smart people, they would like realise the cardinal's a bird, not a tree.
Only book smart. They never go outside. Okay, carrying on.
We went for dinner with the family last night and my wife was like, do we really need to have the entire discussion at the table about Bears football?
Yeah.
And my oldest looks over and says, yes, as we debate who the best backup left tackle is going to be for the upcoming season.
That's right.
So anyway, hey, thanks everybody for tuning in today. Send your feedback, shaney@realagriculture.com. Have yourselves a great weekend and we'll talk to you again next week. Cheers, everybody.