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What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably?

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What’s your model on how real GDP grows durably? Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs). Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot of dots. Let me outline my thinking below. What I wrote in the macro crystal ball piece was this: there is a sequ...
The strongest version of this narrative is that wage growth, supported by government interventions and post-pandemic reopening, is creating a virtuous cycle: higher consumption leads to corporate investment, which in turn drives durable economic expansion. This model gives credit to policy responses like Germany’s Kurzarbeit and U.S. stimulus for stabilizing household finances, while also acknowledging the role of private-sector confidence in translating wage gains into capex. The argument is co...