RIA deal flow is down only slightly for the first two months of the year, but expectations are for a pickup in volume despite (and maybe due to) the market uncertainty from war, private credit cracks and AI jitters.
March 12, 2026
Mergers and acquisitions deal flow in the wealth management space is once again proving durable, according to an early 2026 snapshot.
According to three active dealmakers in the space, volume is down just slightly for the first two months of 2026. Add anecdotal experience in the market and historical context for the sector, and signs thus far point to another blockbuster year for deals, despite the new wave of macroeconomic uncertainty introduced by the war in Iran.
“While announced transactions are down 8.3% year-over-year through the first two months, context matters,” said Kim Kovalski, managing director at Marshberry. “Activity is still up 14.5% compared to the same period in 2024. We’re coming off historically elevated deal volume, so modest variability at the start of the year is not unusual.”
Furthermore, Kovalski said, her team’s own market-eye test shows no signs of slowing.
“We’re currently in the market with over a dozen firms and are not sensing any pullback from buyers,” she said. “Capital remains abundant, and both financial and strategic acquirers are actively pursuing high-quality platforms and add-ons.”
Investment bank Piper Sandler also reports to Wealth Management a slight year-over-year pullback in volume through February. According to the New York-based investment bank, there have been 51 deals through February in 2026, compared to 60 in 2025. That is still well above the 40 deals in the first two months of 2024, and if sustained through the year, it would leave the market close to the record deal volume set last year. In addition, the uncertainty may drive more sellers into the market as the year progresses.
“Certainly, in the immediate term, volatility can cause sellers to think about when to launch a transaction process,” said Cameron Hoerner, a managing director in the asset and wealth management investment banking group at Piper Sandler. “But in the longer run, it can bring more sellers to seek a partner because they realize current market conditions may not hold up, and if they have in their mind they may do something in the medium-term, volatility can make them reevaluate the timing of their ultimate decision to seek a partner.”
There has been no shortage of market jitters to start 2026. The year began with continued concerns over private credit lending, a scare over artificial intelligence undercutting publicly-listed businesses—including in wealth management—and, finally, a U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran that quickly spread to global business hubs in the Middle East.
In some sectors, such as insurance, this uncertainty can pause activity as players on both sides assess the future outcomes of deals and their own financing situations. In a piece published Monday by the not-for-profit Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions, and Alliances, its analysts declared that the war in the Middle East has meant that “a period of genuine M&A momentum—underpinned by easing inflation, stabilized capital markets, and declining interest rates entering 2026—has come to an abrupt halt.”
But Brett Mulder, managing director at Echelon Partners, wrote in an email that deal flow in the wealth management sector is “tracking very closely year-over-year.”
“Activity is very strong, and we expect it to continue as such,” he wrote. “ECHELON’s 2025 RIA M&A Deal Report showed 2025 finished at a record 466 announced transactions, up 27% year over year, and several early-2026 market reads point to that pace carrying forward.”
Mulder noted that, despite the geopolitical headlines, the S&P 500 is still only about 4.5% off its all-time high from earlier in the year. Furthermore, specific to the RIA sector, market declines in 2025 due to the “tariff tantrum” didn’t stop a record year in volume. In 2022, when both stocks and bonds fell, that didn’t ultimately slow the pace of consolidation either, with buyers getting more creative with deal structures to adjust for market conditions.
“Ultimately, the drivers of deal activity in the wealth management space, both demographic and financial, proved strong enough to maintain M&A momentum despite a very difficult macro environment,” he said. “We are far from that scenario now, and even if something similar were to arise, we would expect the same momentum to carry wealth management M&A activity forward at very strong levels until better macro conditions prevail.”
Piper Sandler’s Hoerner also noted that, for buyers in the RIA space, market volatility should not be an issue as they see longer-term strength in scaling up RIAs.
“While there was a lot of public market volatility in 2025, ultimately, there were still a record number of M&A transactions in the wealth management space,” he said. “A buyer’s entry point can have an impact on the returns on an M&A acquisition; however, firms are taking the longer view that this is not a two-year investment they’re making—this is a much longer partnership.”
For RIA owners, Marshberry’s Kovalski said the current environment may also have firms looking more closely at how tied their growth is to markets continuing a steady climb, as they have in recent years.
“There’s a realization now that there’s more volatility and uncertainty in the market, and it has cast a light on their firm’s need to have strong business development capabilities to grow outside of just referrals,” she said. “They are asking themselves: ‘How are we positioned to sustain a market correction or a market flattening? That is another area of concern that is not causing them to be on the sidelines, but it’s actually doing the opposite by realizing they need support on the organic growth side.”