Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Michael Greenstone and Tamma Carleton were part of the research team along with Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec. They explain why Africa’s Sahel region is projected to be the hardest hit area, and why Nigeria is also projected to be one of the worst hit country. He explains what steps governments need to take now to protect people there.
Which African countries face the greatest risk from El Niño’s extra heat, and why?
Africa’s Sahel region is projected to face the greatest loss of life from the heat brought on by this year’s strong El Niño. The Sahel is a belt of dry land stretching across Africa from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, between the Sahara Desert in the north and tropical savannas in the south. It covers about 3.05 million square kilometres and cuts through parts of Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Sudan, Senegal and Eritrea.
There are four countries that are projected to be affected the most by El Niño, from September 2026 through to the end of February 2027. They are Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.
In Nigeria, more than 60% of people were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, while even homes with electricity face power cuts. In Sudan, war has destroyed businesses and jobs and damaged power supplies, with an estimated 57% of people living in extreme poverty in 2025. In Niger, 41% lived below the national poverty line in 2021.
In Chad, 44.8% of the population lived in poverty in 2022. Many people in both countries depend on farming, leaving them exposed to droughts and poor harvests. Only 21% of people in Niger and 13% in Chad had electricity in 2024, leaving most without power to run even a fan.
Our projections show that these four countries will likely see 66,800 additional deaths from extreme heat compared with a normal year. Nearly half of these deaths — 31,400 — are projected to be in Nigeria, the most populous of the four with 237.5 million residents. This makes Nigeria the country most likely in the world to have the highest heat mortality under the super El Niño.
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Sudan is projected to have the second largest number of heat-related deaths at 17,500, followed by Niger with 10,000 and Chad with 8,000. Some of the largest temperature anomalies across the globe over the next six months will be across the Sahel, and this is why the region is facing higher impacts from the super El Niño than other regions.
Our research also projects that there will be generally more heat-related deaths in impoverished regions of the world than in wealthier regions facing similar temperatures. This includes the countries across the Sahel and is because low income areas have fewer resources to protect people from extreme heat.
How did you estimate the likely deaths in African countries?
To estimate mortality (deaths) from this year’s El Niño, we used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ seasonal weather forecast to estimate how temperatures will differ from the norm over the next six months. We then used peer-reviewed Climate Impact Lab research to translate those temperature changes into projected heat-related deaths.
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Our research looks at how temperature affects death rates in 24,378 regions, taking account of the local climate, how at risk people are, and their ability to cope with heat. Our estimates show how many more or fewer heat-related deaths are expected compared with the average for the same months in 1996–2025.
Who is most at risk within these countries, and what can governments do now to protect them?
While our study did not directly address who is most at risk, there is already a huge body of research on who is affected the most by heat. Older people (>65 years old) and children (0-4 years old), as well as those with chronic health conditions are certainly at greater risk than people anywhere else in the world.
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In the context of Africa, people who work outdoors such as farmers and who lack indoor cooling face considerable danger. Much of Africa lacks the electricity needed for airconditioning.
We recently conducted other research on who can afford to stay cool as temperatures rise. This research found that even as temperatures rise, people in low-income countries have very little extra electricity to cope with the heat. The extra electricity per person used in high heat in low-income countries would only be enough to run one LED light bulb for four months - nowhere near enough to power an airconditioner.
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We believe, based on this research, that as the world heats up, wealthier countries will use more air conditioning to cool down. Poorer, hotter countries will lack the money and reliable electricity needed to protect people.
There are 18 countries trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling. Most of them are located in northern sub-Saharan Africa such as Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Chad. People in these countries will therefore be worst off when the super El Niño takes hold.
What steps could save the most lives quickly?
As part of our ongoing research, we have set up an Adaptation Inventory. This is a searchable map of the world that shows the work that countries are doing to adapt to climate change, and also sets out how heat warnings, drought-tolerant seeds and better access to healthcare can help.
We believe the most effective near-term solutions for this year’s projected heatwaves are the ones with proven track records, according to our Adaptation Inventory. These include early warning systems to warn people about extreme heat, paired with heat action plans to help people get out of the heat.
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Other adaptations that have worked include targeted health outreach to elderly and vulnerable populations, for governments to set up cooling centres and hydration stations in areas at high risk of extreme heat, and protections for outdoor workers during peak-danger hours.
Governments in the Sahel region will likely have to get ready for an increased number of people with sunstroke and heatstroke in public hospitals. They can do this by hiring extra staff now, getting in supplies, and preparing hospitals for a surge in patients during the forecasted heat spikes.
Facts Only
* The super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027.
* Africa’s Sahel region is projected to face the greatest loss of life from the heat.
* Four countries are projected to be most affected by El Niño from September 2026 through February 2027: Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.
* Nigeria is projected to account for 31,400 of the estimated additional deaths from extreme heat.
* Sudan is projected to have 17,500 heat-related deaths; Niger is projected to have 10,000; Chad is projected to have 8,000.
* Mortality estimates were derived using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' seasonal weather forecast and Climate Impact Lab research on temperature changes relative to 1996–2025 averages.
* In Nigeria, more than 60% of people were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, and homes with electricity face power cuts.
* In Sudan, an estimated 57% of people lived in extreme poverty in 2025 due to war damage affecting jobs and power supplies.
* In Niger, 41% of the population lived below the national poverty line in 2021.
* In Chad, 44.8% of the population lived in poverty in 2022.
* The research projects that deaths will be generally higher in impoverished regions lacking resources to protect people from extreme heat.
* Eighteen countries are trapped in a combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling, most located in northern sub-Saharan Africa (Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad).
Executive Summary
A super El Niño is projected to cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027, based on research combining temperature forecasts and heat mortality data across 24,378 regions. The greatest risk from this heat impact is projected to be in Africa’s Sahel region. Four specific countries projected to be most affected between September 2026 and February 2027 are Nigeria, Sudan, Niger, and Chad.
Nigeria is expected to account for the largest share of these additional deaths, with nearly half of them projected within that country due to its large population. Sudan is projected to have the second-largest number of heat-related deaths, followed by Niger and then Chad. This differential impact is compounded by existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities; research suggests that impoverished regions experience greater heat-related mortality because they possess fewer resources to cope with extreme heat compared to wealthier areas.
The findings indicate a stark disparity: while some regions face similar temperatures, the impact is disproportionately severe in low-income settings lacking infrastructure and coping mechanisms. The research points to immediate adaptation measures, such as early warning systems and cooling centers, as critical near-term solutions for protection.
Full Take
The narrative leverages the mechanism of climate change—specifically an El Niño event—to assign measurable mortality risk based on pre-existing socioeconomic vulnerabilities. The core pattern is that environmental hazard does not distribute risk equally; it interacts with existing inequalities to produce vastly unequal outcomes, particularly in regions like the Sahel where poverty compounds thermal stress. The reliance on modeling temperature anomalies to project deaths, while scientifically rigorous for establishing a baseline, necessarily shifts the focus from pure climatology to public health and policy failure.
The implications demand scrutiny regarding who benefits from adaptation efforts versus who bears the cost of inaction. While research identifies the vulnerability of specific groups (elderly, children, those with chronic conditions) and specific geographies (the Sahel), the resulting call for action—early warning systems, cooling centers, and infrastructure preparation—must be assessed for equitable implementation. The observation that wealthier nations will utilize more cooling while poorer regions lack the resources to cope exposes a fundamental divergence in global climate governance, where adaptation funding and technological deployment are implicitly linked to wealth.
The framework strongly suggests that climate change is not merely a physical threat but an amplifier of social stratification. The focus on infrastructure deficits (lack of electricity for cooling) highlights how systemic resource distribution dictates human survivability under heat stress. A crucial missing element in the immediate response is accountability: determining why governments in vulnerable areas cannot allocate sufficient resources to mitigate risks projected by their own scientific models, and what agency exists outside of established wealth hierarchies to enforce this equitable burden-sharing.
BRIDGE QUESTIONS:
What mechanisms are necessary to ensure that adaptation funding and early warning systems prioritized for high-risk regions lead to tangible resource redistribution rather than just procedural compliance? How can international frameworks be adjusted to account for pre-existing poverty metrics when calculating climate mortality projections, and what accountability structures exist for governments failing to protect their most vulnerable populations from known environmental threats? What specific policy interventions would effectively bridge the gap between recognized risk and on-the-ground protective action in areas lacking reliable infrastructure?
Sentinel — Human
The text reads like a synthesis of specific research findings, successfully weaving scientific projections with sociological context to drive a policy conclusion.