Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways.
Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (brown), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Red dashed line at “Liberation Day” Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, NBER, and au...
The article uses economic data to critique geopolitical decisions, specifically the U.S.'s involvement in the Iran conflict and its potential consequences for the world's poorest populations. The author argues that these decisions disproportionately harm vulnerable groups, particularly those living in poor countries. This argument is reinforced by discussing the impact of fertilizer shortages on food production in these regions. Additionally, the article suggests parallels between the Iran confl...