John Curtis says Reform has acted as 'midwife' for pro

NIGEL Farage is the “midwife” of Holyrood’s current pro-independence majority, polling expert John Curtice has told an Edinburgh Book Festival audience.
The professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde spoke about the recent Scottish Parliament elections in conversation with political adviser Liz Lloyd on Friday evening.
Scotland was “not immune” from the rise of Farage’s Reform UK party at the Holyrood elections in May, according to Curtis.
He said Farage’s party split the unionist vote at the election, leading to both Labour’s Westminster win in 2024 and the pro-independence majority at Holyrood in May.
“Nigel Farage is basically the midwife of Keir Starmer’s majority,” Curtis said.
“He is also the midwife of the very large pro-independence group that now sits in the Holyrood Parliament.”
Curtis and Lloyd were joined by panel chairwoman Nicola McEwen and journalist David Torrance to discuss “Scottish Parliament elections: Where to from here?”.
Speaking in more depth about the election results in May, Curtis said a lot of what happened is “not unique to Scotland”.
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“While the electorate in Scotland held the SNP to account, they also held the Labour Party to account,” he said.
“Scotland rejected Labour in the same way as Wales rejected Labour in the same way that England rejected Labour, which is why the Parliamentary Labour Party then rejected Keir Starmer once it was clear that Andy Burnham was capable of being his successor.”
Lloyd, the former strategic adviser and chief of staff to former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, later said a lack of resources is holding opposition parties back in Scotland.
“What’s holding some of the opposition parties back from ever having an impact is they don’t have the means to think about, to research, or to come up with the ideas for what they want to do,” Lloyd said.
“They’re broke and they’ve got no resources, so it’s very hard to engage with them seriously on policy because they can’t contribute in the same way that the (SNP) government can – they have a tendency to just revert to, ‘well, we’re opposition, so we’ll oppose’.”
Speaking later about sufficient talent in Holyrood, Lloyd said Scottish opposition parties do not have the proper resources they need to function properly.
“I see talent, I see the resources, I see the ability to do it,” she said.
“(But) I see an opposition that is actually where I think the problem lies.
“I don’t think they are equipped to properly fulfil both opposition and playing their part in sort of consensual cross-party politics that would help in the competency and in the better legislation.”
She added: “I don’t think they have the mechanics, the resources, the means to do it.”
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* Nigel Farage is associated with Holyrood’s pro-independence majority.
* John Curtice stated Farage is the "midwife" of Keir Starmer’s majority and the midwife of the pro-independence group in Holyrood.
* The Reform UK party impacted the unionist vote in the May elections.
* The electorate in Scotland held both the SNP and the Labour Party to account.
* Liz Lloyd stated that a lack of resources hinders opposition parties in Scotland from researching, thinking, or developing policy ideas.
* Scottish opposition parties lack the necessary mechanics and resources for effective cross-party political engagement.

Nigel Farage is identified as the central figure in Holyrood's pro-independence majority, according to polling expert John Curtice. This position is framed by Curtis as being the "midwife" of Keir Starmer's majority and also the midwife of the large pro-independence group in the Scottish Parliament. The context involves recent Scottish Parliament elections where Farage's Reform UK party split the unionist vote. While the electorate in Scotland held the SNP accountable, they also held the Labour Party to account. Liz Lloyd, a former advisor to Nicola Sturgeon, noted that opposition parties in Scotland face resource constraints, limiting their ability to engage in serious policy work due to a lack of means for research and idea generation, which prevents them from contributing effectively in cross-party politics.

The narrative suggests a complex dependency where shifts in political majority are linked to specific actors, framing current political dynamics through historical lineage. The emphasis on Farage as a "midwife" establishes a causal chain that connects external political forces (like the split of the unionist vote) to internal outcomes (the pro-independence majority). This frames political success not just as an outcome of policy shifts but as a reflection of underlying structural capacities—specifically resource allocation. The observation that opposition parties lack resources and capacity to function suggests a systemic vulnerability: powerful political narratives, even when tied to specific individuals, can obscure the potential for genuine, well-resourced political competition. The implication is that while surface-level results are observable, the operational mechanisms necessary for robust legislative competency—the ability to engage in "consensual cross-party politics"—are systematically undermined by resource deficits, regardless of the talent present. What institutional or resource structures permit this disparity between recognized potential and actual functional capacity? What costs does prioritizing immediate political alignment incur on long-term governmental competency?

John Curtis says Reform has acted as 'midwife' for pro

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John Curtis says Reform has acted as 'midwife' for pro

Facts Only

Executive Summary

Full Take