OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration over 1990-2024. We compile a new dataset of net immigration rates to OECD countries from all origins and show that most of the increase came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled. Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the large cross-country heterogeneity in immigration dynamics; unexpected shocks and surges were common. Using local projections and several sources of identifying variation, we then estimate the relationship between immigration and growth in GDP per capita, labor productivity, capital investment, and total factor productivity (TFP). Immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, primarily through higher investment. High-skilled immigration, in particular, was associated with stronger human capital accumulation, faster TFP growth, and greater capital deepening. Native population growth, by contrast, had no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity. These results are consistent with a large literature documenting the positive productivity and growth effects of immigration, especially high-skilled immigration.
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Facts Only
* OECD countries experienced declining native population growth and rising net immigration from 1990 to 2024.
* A new dataset of net immigration rates was compiled for OECD countries from all origins.
* Most of the increase in immigration came from non-OECD countries and was predominantly high-skilled.
* Push factors, network effects, and policy indices explain little of the cross-country heterogeneity in immigration dynamics.
* Unexpected shocks and surges were common in immigration patterns.
* Immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, primarily via higher investment.
* High-skilled immigration was associated with stronger human capital accumulation, faster TFP growth, and greater capital deepening.
* Native population growth had no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity.
Executive Summary
OECD countries experienced declining native population growth alongside rising net immigration between 1990 and 2024. A new dataset of net immigration rates from all origins to OECD countries was compiled, revealing that the majority of this increase originated from non-OECD countries and consisted primarily of high-skilled migrants. The factors explaining the wide variation in immigration dynamics across countries are complex, involving push factors, network effects, and policy indices, alongside unexpected shocks and surges.
Analysis of the relationship between immigration and economic outcomes reveals specific impacts: immigration from non-OECD countries was a significant predictor of GDP per worker growth, largely mediated through increased investment. Immigration of high-skilled workers correlated with stronger accumulation of human capital, faster Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth, and deeper capital investment. Conversely, native population growth showed no or weakly negative effects on GDP per capita and productivity measures. These findings align with broader literature emphasizing the positive productivity and growth effects of immigration, particularly that of high-skilled migrants.
Full Take
Sentinel — Human
This text reads like a standard piece of economic summary reporting data findings from an academic source, exhibiting the logical structure and complexity typical of human-authored analysis.