The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday closed down -1.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.73%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -1.93%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -1.80%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -2.05%.
Stocks sold off sharply on Friday, with the S&P 500 posting a 7-month low and the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrials posting 6.75-month lows. Stocks retreated on Friday amid concerns that a protracted war in Iran will keep oil prices elevated and fuel both inflation and a slowdown in economic growth. WTI crude oil prices surged by more than 5% on Friday, and global bond yields soared amid the risk of a protracted Iran war.
Global bond yields jumped on Friday, weighing on stocks amid concern that a protracted war in Iran will keep energy prices high and fuel inflation. The 10-year T-note yield rose to an 8.25-month high Friday at 4.48%, the 10-year German Bund yield climbed to a 14.75-year high of 3.13%, and the 10-year Japan JGB bond yield rose to a 27-year high of 2.39%.
The US and Israel bombed several nuclear sites and steel facilities in Iran on Friday, as Iran targeted several Gulf states as the war entered its 27th day. Saudi Arabia said it intercepted two ballistic missiles headed for Riyadh, and Kuwait said drones damaged the port of Shuwaikh, while another port called Mubarek Al Kabeer was also targeted. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, on top of the 5,000 troops of two Marine Expeditionary Units already sent.
The University of Michigan US Mar consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 53.3 from the previously reported 55.5, weaker than expectations of 54.0.
The University of Michigan US Mar 1-year inflation expectations were revised upward to 3.8% from 3.4%, stronger than expectations of 3.6%. The Mar 5-10 year inflation expectations were unrevised at 3.2%, lower than expectations of an increase to 3.5%.
Market sentiment also took a hit today when China launched a pair of investigations into US trade practices, retaliating against similar probes by the Trump administration earlier this month, when the US said it was investigating China under Section 301 of the Trade Act for alleged excess manufacturing capacity. China's Ministry of Commerce said its probes target US practices that disrupt global supply chains, covering restrictions on Chinese goods entering US markets, export controls on advanced technology, and limits on bilateral investment in critical sectors. The other action focuses on US barriers to trade in green products, including restrictions on the export of Chinese renewable energy goods to the US and limits on cooperation in green technology.
Stock index futures initially moved higher in overnight trade after President Trump late Thursday extended his deadline for Iran to strike a deal with the US by 10 days to April 6, saying talks with the country were going "very well."
There are concerns that the Iran war could escalate throughout the Middle East. Saudi Arabia agreed to give the US military access to King Fahd Air Base, and the UAE closed an Iranian-owned hospital and club. Iran’s Middle Eastern neighbors are growing frustrated with Iran, which has responded to US and Israeli attacks by hitting targets in several nearby nations.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain high despite attempts to boost global supplies. The IEA on March 11 released 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles and said the war against Iran is disrupting 7.5% of global oil supply, and the conflict will cut global oil supply by 8 million bpd this month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.
The International Energy Agency said Monday that more than 40 energy sites across nine countries in the Middle East have been "severely or very severely" damaged, potentially prolonging disruptions to global supply chains once the war in Iran ends.
The markets are discounting a 4% chance for a +25 bp FOMC rate hike at the April 28-29 policy meeting.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Friday. The Euro Stoxx 50 closed down -1.08%. China's Shanghai Composite closed up +0.63%. Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.43%.
Interest Rates
June 10-year T-notes (ZNM6) on Friday closed down by -0.5 of a tick. The 10-year T-note yield rose +2.8 bp to 4.440%. June T-notes tumbled to a 10-month nearest-futures low on Friday, and the 10-year T-note yield rose to an 8.25-month high of 4.482%. T-notes were under pressure Friday amid a +5% surge in WTI crude oil prices, which boosts inflation expectations. There are also concerns that damage to energy infrastructure from the Iran war will keep energy prices higher for longer and force the Fed to tighten monetary policy. T-notes recovered from their worst level after the University of Michigan US Mar consumer sentiment index was revised lower than expected and after stocks sold off, sparking some safe-haven demand for T-notes.
European government bond yields moved higher on Friday. The 10-year German bund yield jumped to a 14.75-year high of 3.129% and finished up +2.1 bp to 3.094%. The 10-year UK gilt yield was unchanged at 4.974%.
ECB Feb 1-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to a 16-month low of 2.5% from 2.6% in Jan, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.8%. ECB Feb 3-year CPI expectations unexpectedly eased to 2.5% from 2.6% in Jan, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.7%.
ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said, "an ECB rate hike in April is not out of the question" if there is solid evidence that the Iran war will be lasting and lead to higher inflation.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the ECB shouldn't rush its response to the Iran war and must be careful not to "overreact."
UK Feb retail sales ex-auto fuel fell -0.4% m/m, a smaller decline than expectations of -1.0% m/m.
Swaps are discounting a 52% chance of a +25 bp ECB rate hike at its next policy meeting on April 30.
US Stock Movers
Software stocks sold off on Friday, weighing on the broader market. Datadog (DDOG) closed down more than -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Also, Atlassian (TEAM) and Autodesk (ADSK) closed down more than -4%, and Intuit (INTU), Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Workday (WDAY) closed down more than -3%. In addition, Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) closed down more than -2%.
Cybersecurity stocks retreated on Friday after a report from Fortune said Anthropic is testing a new AI model that “poses significant cybersecurity risks.” Okta (OKTA) closed down more than -7%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), and Zscaler (ZS) closed down more than -5%. Also, Cloudflare (NET) and Fortinet (FTNT) closed down more than -3%.
The Magnificent Seven technology stocks moved lower on Friday, weighing on the overall market. Amazon.com (AMZN) and Meta Platforms (META) closed down more than -3%. Also, Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) closed down more than -2%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) closed down more than -1%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks fell on Friday as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) dropped more than -4% to a 3.5-week low. Riot Platforms (RIOT) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) closed down more than -8%, and Coinbase Global (COIN) and MARA Holdings (MARA) closed down more than -6%. Also, Strategy (MSTR) closed down more than -5%.
Energy producers and energy service providers moved higher on Friday as WTI crude oil prices jumped more than +5%. Halliburton (HAL) closed up more than +4%, and APA Corp (APA) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed up more than +3%. Also, Phillips 66 (PSX), SLB Ltd (SLB), and Valero Energy (VLO) closed up more than +2%, and Baker Hughes (BKR), Devon Energy (DVN), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed up more than +1%. In addition,Chevron (CVX) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Wix.com Ltd (WIX) closed down more than -2% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to underweight from neutral.
Two Harbors Investment Co (TWO) closed down more than -1% after Compass Point Research & Trading LLC downgraded the stock to neutral from buy.
Argan Inc. (AGX) closed up more than +38% after reporting Q4 diluted adjusted EPS of $3.47, well above the consensus of $1.98.
Unity Software (U) closed up more than +13% after reporting preliminary Q1 earnings that showed significant strength in Vector, the company’s AI-driven advertising unit.
Entergy (ETR) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after signing a pact with Meta Platforms to supply 5.2 gigawatts of electricity to one of its data centers.
Venture Global (VG) closed up more than +4% after settling pending arbitration with Edison Investment Research concerning the Calcasieu Pass project.
Legence Corp (LGN) closed up more than +3% after reporting Q4 revenue of $738 million, well above the consensus of $621 million, and forecasting full-year revenue of $3.7 billion to $3.9 billion, stronger than the consensus of $3.48 billion.
Primo Brands (PRMB) closed up more than +2% after Jeffries upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $25.
Earnings Reports(3/30/2026)
AirJoule Technologies Corp (AIRJ), AIRO Group Holdings Inc (AIRO), Arrive AI Inc (ARAI), Arrow Financial Corp (AROW), Bicara Therapeutics Inc (BCAX), DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc (DMAC), Fermi Inc (FRMI), HireQuest Inc (HQI), Inmune Bio Inc (INMB), Innventure Inc (INV), Phreesia Inc (PHR), Progress Software Corp (PRGS), Red Cat Holdings Inc (RCAT), Rezolve AI PLC (RZLV), Riverview Bancorp Inc (RVSB), Tootsie Roll Industries Inc (TR), TuHURA Biosciences Inc (HURA), Zspace Inc (ZSPC).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
Facts Only
The S&P 500 closed down 1.67%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.73%, and the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.93% on Friday.
June E-mini S&P futures declined 1.80%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures fell 2.05%.
WTI crude oil prices surged over 5% on Friday.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.48%, the highest in 8.25 months.
The 10-year German Bund yield reached 3.13%, a 14.75-year high, and the 10-year Japanese JGB yield hit 2.39%, a 27-year high.
The U.S. and Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel facilities on Friday.
Iran targeted Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, with ballistic missiles and drones.
The Pentagon is considering deploying an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East.
The University of Michigan revised March U.S. consumer sentiment downward to 53.3 from 55.5.
March 1-year U.S. inflation expectations were revised upward to 3.8% from 3.4%.
China launched investigations into U.S. trade practices, targeting restrictions on Chinese goods and green technology.
President Trump extended the deadline for Iran nuclear talks by 10 days to April 6.
The IEA reported that the Iran conflict has disrupted 7.5% of global oil supply, with 8 million barrels per day cut in March.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, affecting 20% of global oil and gas flows.
Goldman Sachs warned crude prices could exceed $150 per barrel if Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue.
The ECB’s February 1-year CPI expectations eased to 2.5%, below expectations.
ECB officials suggested a possible rate hike in April if inflation risks from the Iran war persist.
Software, cybersecurity, and tech stocks declined, while energy stocks rose.
Argan Inc. surged 38% after reporting strong earnings, and Unity Software gained 13% on positive AI-driven advertising results.
Executive Summary
Full Take
The strongest version of this narrative highlights the interconnected risks of geopolitical conflict, energy market disruptions, and inflationary pressures on global financial stability. The article effectively ties together multiple data points—oil price surges, bond yield spikes, and equity market declines—to paint a coherent picture of systemic vulnerability. It also acknowledges countervailing forces, such as China’s trade retaliation and mixed overseas market performance, which add nuance to the dominant bearish sentiment.
However, the framing leans heavily on fear-driven market reactions, with phrases like "protracted war" and "choked off oil flows" amplifying anxiety. The repeated emphasis on worst-case scenarios (e.g., oil prices exceeding $150) without equivalent discussion of mitigating factors (e.g., strategic reserves, diplomatic efforts) could skew perception toward catastrophic outcomes. The inclusion of corporate earnings and stock movements provides balance, but the overall tone prioritizes volatility over resilience.
Root cause: This narrative assumes that geopolitical shocks inevitably translate into prolonged economic harm, a paradigm that underweights adaptive market mechanisms and policy responses. The unstated assumption is that energy disruptions are irreversible, ignoring historical precedents where supply chains adjusted to crises. The pattern echoes Cold War-era resource conflicts, where energy was weaponized, but modern financial systems are more diversified and responsive.
Implications: Human agency is framed as reactive—markets "sell off," governments "retaliate," and central banks "consider" tightening. The second-order consequences—such as potential food price inflation or shifts in renewable energy investment—are underexplored. The beneficiaries (e.g., energy producers, defense contractors) and cost-bearers (e.g., consumers, tech-dependent industries) are identified but not analyzed for structural inequities.
Bridge questions: What evidence would indicate that energy markets are adapting rather than collapsing? How might diplomatic breakthroughs in the Iran conflict alter this narrative? Are there historical parallels where geopolitical tensions did *not* lead to sustained inflation?
Counterstrike scan: A coordinated influence campaign would amplify fear (e.g., "oil prices could exceed $150") while downplaying stabilizing factors (e.g., IEA reserve releases). The article includes both, but the emotional weight favors volatility. No structural alignment with a hypothetical attack playbook is detected—the content reflects genuine market dynamics rather than manipulative framing.
Patterns detected: ARC-0024 Ambiguity (selective emphasis on worst-case scenarios without proportional context), ARC-0043 Motte-and-Bailey (broad claims about "protracted war" without defining thresholds for duration or impact).
Sentinel — Human
Sentinel analysis incomplete — partial response from fallback model.