One advantage of incumbency has been the ability to swamp an opponent by raising plenty of money for reelection. Not any more.
In the 12 most competitive contests involving current members of the House of Representatives, one-fourth of the challengers have outraised the current officeholders and every insurgent has reported raising at least $1 million.
“The conventional wisdom was that the incumbent would always be better-suited financially than the challenger. And now it’s just not the case,” said Ross Baker, a political science professor at Rutgers University.
This analysis examines the races rated as tossups by both the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections, two Washington-based publications that track congressional contests. None of the races involving incumbent senators are rated as tossups by both publications.
The three challengers outraising the incumbents are:
- Democrat Joanna Mendoza in Arizona’s 6th district. She has taken in $5.3 million through March 31, compared to $5.1 million for Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R).
- Democrat Janelle Stelson, who brought in $4.7 million for her rematch against Rep. Scott Perry (R) in Pennsylvania’s 10th district. The incumbent reported raising $4.4 million.
- Democrat Rebecca Cooke in Wisconsin’s 3rd district. She is vying for the nomination to take on Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R). Through March 31, Cooke had raised $6.5 million, against primary challenger Emily Berge’s $565,651. Van Orden raised $5.7 million.
Democratic consultant Modia Butler said the Republican and Democratic party hierarchies no longer act as gatekeepers to allow certain candidates in and others out.
“On the right, you have the powerful MAGA movement and then on the left you have the powerful progressive [movement] and in New York the powerful socialist movement, which is distinct and separate from the progressive movement, and so there are various ways to enter the game,” Butler said. “Now there just isn’t one port of entry. It’s not as simple like back in the day you would go to your party chair and you would ask your party chair for their blessing. And if the party chair did not give you their blessing, you basically had a 0% chance at winning an election. That is not the case anymore.”
The endangered incumbent who has raised the most money is Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), with $7.5 million. He will face Democrat Cait Conley, a U.S. Army veteran who brought in $3.3 million through June 3. But Conley drained much of her money during the primary.
Primary elections also helped Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie build a fundraising advantage over Democrat Bob Brooks in Pennsylvania’s 7th district. While Mackenzie raised $3.7 million through April 29, Brooks took in $1.2 million and had to survive a primary.
While Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa) raised $6.2 million through May 13, Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan kept pace with $5.6 million, including $875,059 in donations of $200 or less. Miller-Meeks had $766,903 in small-dollar contributions.
“Challengers are extremely persistent in emailing for contributions,” Baker said. “I don’t know anybody who is even remotely connected to the political world whose inbox isn’t absolutely inundated with political solicitations.”
And President Donald Trump, while not on the ballot this fall, is spurring fundraising by both sides, Baker said.
“Historically I think that candidates have either used their closeness to the president or the fierceness of their opposition to the president as a calling card,” Baker said. “And I think that Trump, in particular, elicits very strong feelings on both sides. What do you do as a citizen? The one thing you can do is give money.”
Jonathan D. Salant has covered money and politics out of Washington for almost 40 years. He is a former president of the National Press Club and a member of the Society of Professional Journalists D.C. chapter’s Journalism Hall of Fame.
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