Russia will directly or indirectly control a third of the world’s uranium production within the next 15 years, according to analysts at the British Center for Strategic Advantage (CSA), the Financial Times reports.
Counting only uranium mined on Russian territory, Russia’s share of the global market was just 5% in 2024. But Uranium One, a Rosatom-owned company, mines uranium in Kazakhstan, Tanzania, and Namibia, and recently signed an agreement with Niger as well.
Factoring in those foreign mines, CSA calculated that Russia controlled almost a quarter of global uranium mining capacity in 2024, a figure the group projects could climb to 36% by 2040.
“By 2040, we could be looking at a dependency on Russian-mined uranium akin to our reliance on Russian oil and gas in 2022,” said CSA analyst Gareth Heywood.
Low global uranium prices amid weak demand have led Western countries to cut investment in developing new deposits in recent years, Financial Times writes. CSA believes global demand for uranium could rise in the coming years, however.
Industry representatives, however, say they want guarantees before committing to long-term investment in expanding uranium production. Urenco, which is majority-owned by the governments of the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, said businesses want a “clear signal” from the government that nuclear power will remain part of its long-term energy security strategy.
Russia was the largest supplier of uranium to U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. U.S. authorities banned uranium imports from Russia in May 2024, though exceptions allowing such imports remain in effect until 2028. The sanctions don’t apply to uranium mined abroad with Uranium One’s involvement. The European Union hasn’t banned imports of Russian uranium.
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